[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')unno. Most major oil companies think US oil consumption peaked in 2007. Maybe they're right. If they are, a lack of an additional 2 million bpd or thereabouts from Canada by 2015 won't be a big deal.

[copious.abundance]

Just goin' by what the oil companies think. My own hunch is that it'll eventually go back up, but we're unlikely to get back up to 2007 levels. But who knows - anything could happen.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust goin' by what the oil companies think. My own hunch is that it'll eventually go back up, but we're unlikely to get back up to 2007 levels. But who knows - anything could happen.

[Maddog78]

Hello?

There is a glut right now. Oil every where. Storage getting full. OPEC and other wells shut in.

What companies are going to spend a huge amount looking for more right now?
Only a few of the majors can maintain their budgets in this environment and of course they are squeezing suppliers for better deals.

The world does not need more production right now. It will be a while before it does.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o your own hunch tells you that a significant reduction in the estimated production of oil sands, up to 2015, might actually present a problem for the US?

[AirlinePilot]

It is always going to be possible that we have seen the peak of global demand. The giant problem with the present situation is that if we continue to reduce demand globally, the price will remain depressed. I frankly doubt that over the next few years demand continues to fall. Most likely, and this is backed by most of the major Oil co's and analyst agencies, you see flat to slight growth in the near term. The premise that we are now at the peak of global demand isnt supportable. Unless of course you believe in zero population growth.

Over time production will continue to fall, both through natural decline and delays in cost outlay for new crude due to the low crude prices. Once the decline catches up with that flat to slow growth we still enter a phase where production wont keep up with demand and crude prices will ramp once again. Its defintiely a giant unknown, but this is the scenario i see playing out. We are in a brief respite right now and the demand picture could EASILY return within a short time to where it was with proper economic stimulus and non US oil consumption growth.

All this "Glut" will dissapear within a few quarters rather easily and we will be right back where we were a year ago.

[AirlinePilot]

Weathorford cuts 3000 jobs

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Weatherford International Ltd., the world’s biggest provider of artificial-lift services that boost oil flow in wells, has cut more than 3,000 jobs and plans more reductions as customers keep pressing for lower rates.

The company also has closed more than 20 facilities as it adjusts to a demand slowdown spurred by last year’s collapse in oil and natural-gas prices, Weatherford Chief Financial Officer Andrew Becnel told investors today on a conference call.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... h3I.ce2Ab4

[kiwichick]

sorry if this has already been posted

on the BBC World Debate programme 19 july: senior exec from Shell Oil when asked why Shell was investing
in canadian oilsands he said;

" conventional crude oil is becoming more and more difficult to find"

and " conventional crude oil WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MEET DEMAND
BY 2015"

sorry i don't have a link

[AirlinePilot]

More Refinery industry losses

NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) - The recession-battered U.S. oil refining industry may be forced to eliminate more jobs and further curtail capacity in the face of limp demand, tighter U.S. environmental regulations and stricter fuel-efficiency requirements for automobiles.In the coming months, more refiners may be forced to shut additional units and slash employee numbers due to dismal demand for petroleum fuels. "You're going to see some whole refineries taken down ... we could see (refinery) runs, as a percent of capacity, drop several percentage points into the low 80s, and correspondingly you're going to see some loss of jobs within the sector, unfortunately," said Jim Ritterbusch, president, Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessN ... 2320090721

[AirlinePilot]

US SMEs face further borrowing pressure

July 21, 2009 - Small and medium-sized energy companies' ability to raise capital is shrinking as banks consolidate their lending on established customers with large asset bases. (See related chart: Banks' shrinking market optimization ($ billion).) "The market is way too tight. You look out there and you see many of your peers having their borrowing bases cut in half..."- Scott Allen, CEO,ReoStar Energy Corp. SMEs can turn to mezzanine financiers, but even here the number of lenders has contracted, and the cost of borrowing has risen. This is placing a large constraint on a traditionally dynamic sector that plays a key role in the energy sector's fortunes. Despite talk of the "green shoots" of recovery, small to medium-sized enterprises are seeing their borrowing bases cut from under them.

http://www.platts.com/Natural%20Gas/Res ... /index.xml

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')n case you didn't know, during EVERY recession, projects across all industries are canceled or delayed due to financial problems, collapse of demand, and similar reasons. Why should this recession be any different? But guess what? After the recession is over, financing comes back, so does demand, and projects get put on the front burner again and are started anew.

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Noble to develop $1.3 bln W. Africa oil project
Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:15pm EDT

HOUSTON, July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. exploration company Noble Energy Inc (NBL.N) and its partners plan to spend $1.3 billion to produce oil and gas offshore Equatorial Guinea, with first production set for the middle of 2012, the companies said on Wednesday.

Initial development of the Aseng oil project will include five subsea wells flowing to a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel, which will be leased.

First production from Aseng is estimated to start by mid-2012 at 50,000 barrels of oil per day gross. Over the life of the project, Noble expects to recover gross hydrocarbon liquids of about 100 million to 120 million barrels, with initial reserve bookings beginning in 2009.

The majority of the capital is to be invested in 2010 and 2011, with Noble's share of the spending coming in at $530 million, Nobel said.

[...]

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')emex, as the company is known, boosted capital expenditures to $18 billion last year in an effort to reverse declining oil production, and plans to lift the figure to over $20 billion this year.

[Maddog78]

Too early to tell.
They do seem to be making a serious effort for a change though.
They just let Halliburton in on a contract, that's a first. They must be getting worried.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=78546&hmpn=1

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ilfield services giant Halliburton Co. has won a $169 million contract to drill 170 wells Mexico's Chicontepec region, its first major project in the area, Petroleos Mexicanos said Thursday.

Pemex, as the state oil company is known, has also awarded four contracts for about 140 wells each to local drillers, expanding its pool of suppliers for the expensive project.

The new contracts underscore Pemex's efforts to accelerate spending and stabilize falling oil production, down by a fifth since peaking in 2004. During the first half of this year, the company spent only 38% of its exploration and production investment budget

[copious.abundance]

Baker-Hughes rig count up 23 in the past week.

I believe that's up 5 of the past 6 weeks.

CNN

[AirlinePilot]

Well, I dont think there is much hope for Cantarell. As far as ive researched as Cantarell goes, Mexico goes.

They can throw as much money as they want to at this and I doubt they are going to have any success at all even remotely stalling that decline.

[TheDude]

Saudi Aramco, Total Seek $8 Billion Loan for Refinery (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Aramco and Total SA are seeking to borrow $8 billion to build an oil refinery on Saudi Arabia’s Persian Gulf coast, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The two companies are raising the 16-year loans in the name of Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Co., said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, is advising the venture, the people said.

The joint venture wants to borrow $3.5 billion from international lenders, $1.5 billion from Saudi banks and about $2 billion from Saudi government funds, the people said. A further $1 billion will be raised from lenders including the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, they said.

[copious.abundance]

Baker-Hughes rig count for the US rose again last week. I think that's 6 of the past 7 weeks it's been up.

LINK

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') All this "Glut" will dissapear within a few quarters rather easily and we will be right back where we were a year ago.

[Maddog78]

A big part of the problem is National Oil Companies now controlling around +/- 80% of the world's estimated reserves.
That doesn't leave a lot for the majors to go for and they have to spend money on ever more expensive projects leading to diminishing returns.