[JohnDenver]

Here's the energy consumption breakdown for the US for 2002 from the DOE.

Coal: 22.7%
Natural gas: 23.6%
Petroleum products: 39.5%
Nuclear electric power: 8.4%
Renewable energy: 6.0%

If we have a 3% per annum decline in petroleum consumption after the peak, that will translate into only a 1.2% decrease in total energy. A decline in oil will only have an attenuated effect on total energy.

For a brief period after the peak, there may be no growth in coal, gas, nuclear or renewable. So we can expect total energy to drop slightly (i.e. at 1 or 2% per year). However, high gas prices will drive consumers to shift to non-petroleum sources, which will raise prices and encourage investment and growth in those sources. For example, hybrids will switch some transportation fuel demand to the grid. Certainly massive new investments will be made in non-conventional, coal, gas, nuclear and renewables. Some of these investments are even underway today.

If coal, gas, nuclear and renewables all grow slightly, their growth can overcome a 3% drop in petroleum, and achieve growth in total energy consumption.

So, imagine total energy after the peak, declining by 1 or 2% a year. At some point, the decline in oil (which is getting smaller every year) will be compensated by growth in the non-oil sources, and the curve will stop falling. For convenience, call the subsequent period of new growth "The Rebound". At the latest, I feel it will begin 10 or 15 years after the peak.

[AirlinePilot]

Interesting. I can kind of see your point and I applaud your optimism. How would you answer this question then. How do we contend with the decline in oil supply concerning the following: automobile use and the trucking industry, air travel, manufacturing and construction? It seems to me that the economy while probably dealing with overall energy consumption, will still have major problems due to the oil issue. Right now unless some very significant conservation in these areas is undertaken we are headed for some tough times.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f coal, gas, nuclear and renewables all grow slightly, their growth can overcome a 3% drop in petroleum, and achieve growth in total energy consumption.

[pea-jay]

Oh yeah and how will we afford to pay Asian countries for those advanced electronics that these new hybrids will require? Even an allegedly "small" decline in oil will trigger huge disruptions and mess up our economy.

We are placing too much faith in a smooth transition to alternatives. The reality may prove to be much more jarring.

[eastbay]

Coal, nuclear and hydro would have to grow in order to meet the declining natural gas and oil.

Forget about nuclear, at least for the next decade... and then it'll only be a decade or two ride before the accessible uranium is depleted.

Forget about hydro-power. Almost all the favorable sites are already selected.

That leaves coal. The coal that would have to be mined and burned to create the energy to replace todays oil and natural gas power is immense. I'm not too sure how well an electric powered 70,000 lb load-carrying 18 wheeler will perform... or electric powered coal mining equipment... or electric powered farm equipment... or electric powered aircraft... how about electric powered everything... and what shall I do when my motorcycle requires an oil change?

I applaud your optimism too, but I just don't see it happening that way.

EastBay

[Mercani]

Why do we need to keep energy consumption flat or growing?

2%-3% efficiency gains are possible at least for 10 years in the US. When you replace your V6 car with a hybrid(Prius), you are not shifting any energy consumption from oil to electricity. These hybrids aren't plug-in type. They are just very efficient gasoline cars.

Let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. What can be achieved by only switching some new car sales to hybrids?

1- If you replace your 20mpg car with a 60mpg hybrid, you have 2/3rd efficiency improvement. (66%).
2- Assume, we are using 100 units of oil at peak year, next year we have 97 units of oil. (3% decline)
3- Let's assume half use of oil is due to personal cars.
4- Oil use of personal cars need to be reduced from 50 to 47. (6%)
5- If 9% of all cars are replaced by hybrids, assuming 66% efficiency gain from a hybrid, we have 9%x0.66=6% total efficiency improvement. Goal is achieved.
6- Assume 100 mllion total passenger cars, and 10 million new cars are sold every year.
6- 9% of all cars is roughly 9 million cars. Assuming 10 million cars are sold in the US per year, 90% of all new car sales should be hybrids. This is not impossible, although highly unlikely.

Keep in mind that I did assume that total driving is not reduced(same amount of miles are driven). This is also too simple. Probably we could achieve the same total efficiency by 50% hybrid car sales and some reduction in car use. (car pooling, less trips to supermarkets, etc.)

As you can see just by switching car manufacturing from pure internal-consumption cars to hybrid cars, 1st year of depletion is handled. I didn't even talk about efficiency improvements in other areas. Of course in the long run (10-15 years), personal car use would need to be dramatically reduced.

[Aaron]

3% depletion per year... (very optimistic if Simmons is correct)

2006 - 3% Depletion

2007 - 6% Depletion

2008 - 9% Depletion

2009 - 12% Depletion

2010 - 15% Depletion

Clear enough?

[EddieB]

Converting to more efficient forms of transportation (ie hybrids) is a wonderful idea, and while it's true that a total conversion of the truck and car fleet would save many millions of bpd, we will be hard pressed to make the shift quickly enough. Hirsch et al (of the US Gov) recently published a report largely on this topic and concluded that unless the conversion to alternative began 20 years before peak there would be serious economic repercussions (and they made rosy assumptions about decline rates and stablity of society druing the transition).

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')nteresting. I can kind of see your point and I applaud your optimism. How would you answer this question then. How do we contend with the decline in oil supply concerning the following: automobile use and the trucking industry, air travel, manufacturing and construction?

[Leanan]

Once it's clear that oil production is declining or that demand has hopelessly outstripped supply, the end could come very quickly, at least for us lowly consumers. As described here:

http://deconsumption.typepad.com/decons ... mport.html

Everyone who can will be hoarding petroleum, which will cause shortages, which will exacerbate the hoarding. In a very short time, fuel will be available only for the government (especially the military), large companies, and certain people with connections.

We saw this in microcosm, in Phoenix, when a damaged pipeline cut off their gasoline supplies. They didn't have enough trucks to make up the difference, and the gas stations quickly went dry. People were following fuel trucks around at 3am, hoping to find the station they were delivering to and get in line before the gas ran out.

[JohnDenver]

Everybody: I couldn't help but notice that no one has commented on "The Rebound". Do you believe that a rebound in total energy production is impossible?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I')n a very short time, fuel will be available only for the government (especially the military), large companies, and certain people with connections.

[Leanan]

Yes, I think a rebound is impossible. The laws of thermodynamics are against it. The alternate energy sources do not have the EROEI of oil. And they, too, will become harder and harder as oil gets scarcer and more expensive. It takes a hell of a lot of petroleum to make aluminum wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, etc. And it takes a lot of energy to drill for natural gas, and build the infrastructure to transport, deliver, and use it. Ditto mining and shipping coal. We'll be trying to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps. Sure, our use of alternate energy will increase. But not enough to actually make up for the decline of oil.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')s described here:

Link removed.

[0mar]

We aren't at the point of universal energy usage. Each type of energy is specifically suited for a certain task. We cannot run our cars on coal without drastically modifying the coal into diesal or gasoline, effectively making it petroleum.

Peak oil means that oil supplies start to dwindle. Oil has a strangehold on the transportation market. About 95% of all vehicles need a derivative of oil to function. These vehicles are also vital to our economy. As the prices of travel increases, so will everything else.

[Leanan]

Few would argue that sprawl is a good thing. Heck, I'm a transportation engineer, and I don't think it's a good thing.

The problem is the pain that it will cause. People won't be able to get to work. There will be food shortages. I expect there will be considerable civil unrest, as well. There was rioting over high gas prices in Lebanon last year. There was mass civil unrest in the UK, when the truckers went on strike to protest fuel prices, and the store shelves went bare in three days.

I am not sure society will hold together enough for large projects like nuclear power plants to be built. I suspect our GDP will be pouring into the military, as we try to vie for control of the world's remaining petroleum with China, India, Russia, etc.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '3')% depletion per year... (very optimistic if Simmons is correct)

2006 - 3% Depletion

2007 - 6% Depletion

2008 - 9% Depletion

2009 - 12% Depletion

2010 - 15% Depletion

Clear enough?

[Leanan]

No, I don't think peak oil will necessarily cause the others to peak. I just don't think it's possible to get as much energy from the others as we get from oil.

Right now, much of the energy cost of the alternatives is hidden from us, because it's in the form of cheap oil. Once that subsidy is gone, the price of the alternatives will rise accordingly. We'll realize the free lunch we thought were were getting actually has a much higher price than we realized.

[heyhoser]

JohnDenver,
An important aspect to keep in mind is that coal, LNG, nuclear, unconventional oil, and even renewables is reliant on oil for production, transportation, operations, etc. Of course, there will still BE plenty of oil for these operations, but it's going to be more expensive...No Mad Max for sure, but a pain in the a** for our check books.

Then, take into account how bad the recession MIGHT become from PO. There are many scenarios, most not so bad, but none of them very pleasurable.

[heyhoser]

Sorry, I know that idea has been beaten to death in this thread, but it's kinda important.
I applaud your optimism, though.