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Manufacturers don't use much oil

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Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:01:36

This file has lots of data on fuel consumption, classified by type of fuel and industry:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs98 ... 98n3_2.htm

On the whole, we can say that oil products play a very small role as an energy input for manufacturing.

For example, consider "Transport Machinery" (NAICS code no.: 336). Energy consumption for transport machinery manufacturing breaks down as follows for 1998 (figures are in trillion BTUs):

Total energy consumption: 488
Net electricity: 195
Residual fuel oil: 5
Distillate fuel oil: 15
Natural gas: 211
LPG and NGL: 4
Coal: 29
Coke and breeze: 1
Other: 29

As you can see, the primary energy inputs to transport machinery manufacturing are electricity and natural gas. Oil accounts for only about 4% of energy use in this sector. Furthermore, energy is only one cost among many for the transport machinery industry. They must also pay labor costs, raw material costs, taxes, interest etc. In short, it would be surprising if oil accounted for more than 1% of the final cost of a transport machinery product.
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Unread postby jato » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:09:51

Natural gas...electricity (also part natural gas)...great!

Image




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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby Russian_Cowboy » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:14:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')his file has lots of data on fuel consumption, classified by type of fuel and industry:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs98 ... 98n3_2.htm

On the whole, we can say that oil products play a very small role as an energy input for manufacturing.


For manufacturing, oil and gas play a VERY BIG role as a raw material input. This is why it will be EXTREMELY HARD to switch to other types of raw materials when oil and gas are depleted.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:22:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'N')atural gas...electricity (also part natural gas)...great!


The "shortage" of natural gas is a problem for North America, not the world as a whole. Two of the largest manufacturing powerhouses in the world (Japan and South Korea) are operating 100% on imports, and it doesn't seem to be hindering them much.
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Unread postby jato » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:25:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he "shortage" of natural gas is a problem for North America


That is why I am worried about it! 8)
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:32:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', 'F')or manufacturing, oil and gas play a VERY BIG role as a raw material input.


How big? Care to put a number on it? Certainly, in some industries oil and natural gas are a critical feedstock (fertilizer, plastics, petroleum). Those industries, however, constitute only a small fraction of all manufacturing. Some industries, like glass, aluminum, steel and paper products, use no oil or gas as a raw material input.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is why it will be EXTREMELY HARD to switch to other types of raw materials when oil and gas are depleted.


The total depletion of oil and gas will not occur at peak oil. Feedstocks can be produced from coal and tar sands, so we likely have 100 years at least before we run out of feedstock.
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby 0mar » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 21:46:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', 'F')or manufacturing, oil and gas play a VERY BIG role as a raw material input.


How big? Care to put a number on it? Certainly, in some industries oil and natural gas are a critical feedstock (fertilizer, plastics, petroleum). Those industries, however, constitute only a small fraction of all manufacturing. Some industries, like glass, aluminum, steel and paper products, use no oil or gas as a raw material input.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is why it will be EXTREMELY HARD to switch to other types of raw materials when oil and gas are depleted.


The total depletion of oil and gas will not occur at peak oil. Feedstocks can be produced from coal and tar sands, so we likely have 100 years at least before we run out of feedstock.


Almost 35% of oil usage in America goes towards industrial uses.
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby Russian_Cowboy » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 22:15:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', 'F')or manufacturing, oil and gas play a VERY BIG role as a raw material input.


How big? Care to put a number on it?


0mar did it ahead of me. Not being and information desk, I don't want to pull any numbers out of my hat. 1/3 of all raw material inputs makes sense to me though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', 'T')his is why it will be EXTREMELY HARD to switch to other types of raw materials when oil and gas are depleted.


The total depletion of oil and gas will not occur at peak oil. Feedstocks can be produced from coal and tar sands, so we likely have 100 years at least before we run out of feedstock.


Feedstocks can be produced even out of limestone. The question is how much will they cost and where the hell are we going to get the necessary energy.
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 22:15:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'A')lmost 35% of oil usage in America goes towards industrial uses.


Do you have a cite for that?
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby 0mar » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 22:29:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'A')lmost 35% of oil usage in America goes towards industrial uses.


Do you have a cite for that?


http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/pdf/ucrl-tr-129990-02.pdf
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 22:58:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'A')lmost 35% of oil usage in America goes towards industrial uses.


Do you have a cite for that?


http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/pdf/ucrl-tr-129990-02.pdf


Here's the flowchart from the document you referenced

Image

As you can, see 35% of oil usage does not go towards industrial uses.
It's more like 10%. Even including non-fuel uses, the figure is only about 23%.
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Unread postby jato » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 23:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s you can, see 35% of oil usage does not go towards industrial uses.
It's more like 10%. Even including non-fuel uses, the figure is only about 23%.



Wouldn't a chunk of the "transportation" sector be used for industry? I.e. transporting industrial goods and materials to and fro? It is not clear from the chart… transportation is not broken down.

Just a guess.
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Re: Manufacturers don't use much oil

Unread postby 0mar » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 23:07:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'A')lmost 35% of oil usage in America goes towards industrial uses.


Do you have a cite for that?


http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/pdf/ucrl-tr-129990-02.pdf


Here's the flowchart from the document you referenced

Image

As you can, see 35% of oil usage does not go towards industrial uses.
It's more like 10%. Even including non-fuel uses, the figure is only about 23%.


I forget exactly how, but it comes out to be 35%. I remember reading that very distinctly. It might be a useful energy computation instead of a total energy. fuck.
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Unread postby rowante » Mon 25 Apr 2005, 23:24:27

Hmm, the most interesting figure to me is the 'lost energy' figure. 56.2%.

TRIVIA: Flow diagrams are interesting... they were developed in the U.S.S.R to model collective economies.
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Unread postby Russian_Cowboy » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 01:55:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rowante', 'H')mm, the most interesting figure to me is the 'lost energy' figure. 56.2%.

TRIVIA: Flow diagrams are interesting... they were developed in the U.S.S.R to model collective economies.


This fact does not make flow diagrams an invalid concept. What amazes me is that in 1989, when I was in high school in USSR, the peak oil concept was studied in the economic geography course. Soviet command and control economy was presented as a perfect one to deal with the coming peak oil (gas, metal ores, phosphates, etc) crises. So, now it turns out, the communists were right and the western propaganda wrong about the fallacies of the free-market capitalism??? :shock:
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Unread postby Aaron » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 08:31:21

Classic JohnDenver

From the EIA source John quotes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')Net Electricity' is obtained by summing purchases, transfers in, and
generation from noncombustible renewable resources, minus quantities sold and
transferred out. It does not include electricity inputs from onsite
cogeneration or generation from combustible fuels because that energy has
already been included as generating fuel
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby 0mar » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 08:54:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rowante', 'H')mm, the most interesting figure to me is the 'lost energy' figure. 56.2%.

TRIVIA: Flow diagrams are interesting... they were developed in the U.S.S.R to model collective economies.


This fact does not make flow diagrams an invalid concept. What amazes me is that in 1989, when I was in high school in USSR, the peak oil concept was studied in the economic geography course. Soviet command and control economy was presented as a perfect one to deal with the coming peak oil (gas, metal ores, phosphates, etc) crises. So, now it turns out, the communists were right and the western propaganda wrong about the fallacies of the free-market capitalism??? :shock:


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