[like_the_dinosaurs]

http://business.theage.com.au/business/export-prices-fall-21-for-the-quarter-20090717-doat.html

So far Australia has avoided a technical recession but this fall in exports is huge and could be the start of our turn to cop a beating.

Thoughts

[pup55]

Well, let's see:

Domestic US trucking is down about 20% year on year....
Australia's raw material type exports, down about 20% year on year.....

Are there some more examples?

Maybe the economy has contracted about 20%. It just has not shown up in the statistics yet, or possibly, the statistics have been made squisy and non-indicative.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'W')ell, let's see:

Domestic US trucking is down about 20% year on year....
Australia's raw material type exports, down about 20% year on year.....

Are there some more examples?

Maybe the economy has contracted about 20%. It just has not shown up in the statistics yet, or possibly, the statistics have been made squisy and non-indicative.

[turner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('like_the_dinosaurs', '[')url]http://business.theage.com.au/business/export-prices-fall-21-for-the-quarter-20090717-doat.html[/url]

So far Australia has avoided a technical recession but this fall in exports is huge and could be the start of our turn to cop a beating.

Thoughts

[like_the_dinosaurs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('like_the_dinosaurs', '[')url]http://business.theage.com.au/business/export-prices-fall-21-for-the-quarter-20090717-doat.html[/url]

So far Australia has avoided a technical recession but this fall in exports is huge and could be the start of our turn to cop a beating.

Thoughts

[alokin]

While it is far better handing the stimulus to people rather than to banks, it's still a waste of money and would have had much better effect on the long term if the money would have been spent wisely. Australia for example has a dreadful train system with trains running twice a week instead of twice a day.

Australia is SO much dependent on other nations. Without industry but mining, and especially dependent on China.

I don't know when we will have a huge crisis, I would like to hear some better informed voices.

[turner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('like_the_dinosaurs', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('like_the_dinosaurs', '[')url]http://business.theage.com.au/business/export-prices-fall-21-for-the-quarter-20090717-doat.html[/url]

So far Australia has avoided a technical recession but this fall in exports is huge and could be the start of our turn to cop a beating.

Thoughts

[SeaGypsy]

Funny thing about the Autralian story so far; late 2007 near the peak of world markets, Australia was facing serious market constraint due to LOW unemployment (4.5%) and skill shortages.
Among the incredible complexities to occur since the then minister for finance& the economy Peter Costello famously warned Australian's during the election campaign of "A financial Tsunami like the world has never seen":
The brain drain Australia was coping with has begun to reverse; many of the countries best minds are returning from long career adventures overseas.
We now have a Prime Minister who speaks fluent Mandarin.
The rise of 2% in unemployment since the crisis hit has actually helped overall productivity.
The slowdown has allowed Australia's biggest exporters/ the miners/ some breathing space and catch up time. Many slated projects on hold due to labour restraint have been able to proceed despite the slowdown if not because of it.
I wrote here a few months back that something the west does not act like it understand is the importance of internal growth mechanisms in Asia. China is showing that it can very quickly adapt to focus inwardly; this is still very good for Australia. Maybe not the orgasmic financial fantasy we were sold until recently but still pretty rosy for the intermediate term.
This writer believes the only reason the USD and markets have not fallen of a cliff just yet is reserve currency status; a particularly precarious pedestal when one considers the US is about to go from 1st to 3rd or 4th biggest economy.
Just my thoughts as a multinational Citizen.

[turner]

Seagypsy,

You make many valid points and I do think Australia is better placed than many countries, but my concern is not what has happened thus far, but how things will play out going forward. I think that there is an unwarranted degree of optimism in Australia and this idea that we can be part of the global economy in the good times but can decouple in the bad is flawed. The relationship with Asia is important and significant but Asian countries are being impacted by the downturn and this will have (delayed) knock on effects on Australia.

[SeaGypsy]

Yo Turner,
there is an oversupply of abundant wishfullness in Australia to be sure; but compared to the fantasy level in the USA?
I was hearing caution from those on both sides of politics right up until now. I don't recall current PM kevin Rudd giving a single 'Green Shoots' missive without a precautionary or addendum.
The thing which has turned me towards center recently is not a fantasy about an economic miracle or recovery.
Among some of the older wiser minds on this board has been a call for a controlled approach to inevitable die off over the next 100 years.
A very short few months ago I and many others here were 50/50 that drastic dieoff would occur in the next 2 to 3 years; due to a total out of control economic catastrophy.
Compared to that; there is a sense to realists, not of release but of reprieve.
I choose to modify my own behaviour and thinking to best adapt and be able to help my children adapt to survive whatever happens, as I will continue to do, in as fluid fashion as I can dream up.
The current scenario allows a much broader pallett of colours for a picture of the future than the one earlier this year.

[turner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'Y')o Turner,
there is an oversupply of abundant wishfullness in Australia to be sure; but compared to the fantasy level in the USA?
I was hearing caution from those on both sides of politics right up until now. I don't recall current PM kevin Rudd giving a single 'Green Shoots' missive without a precautionary or addendum.
The thing which has turned me towards center recently is not a fantasy about an economic miracle or recovery.
Among some of the older wiser minds on this board has been a call for a controlled approach to inevitable die off over the next 100 years.
A very short few months ago I and many others here were 50/50 that drastic dieoff would occur in the next 2 to 3 years; due to a total out of control economic catastrophy.
Compared to that; there is a sense to realists, not of release but of reprieve.
I choose to modify my own behaviour and thinking to best adapt and be able to help my children adapt to survive whatever happens, as I will continue to do, in as fluid fashion as I can dream up.
The current scenario allows a much broader pallett of colours for a picture of the future than the one earlier this year.

[SeaGypsy]

Not sure where consensus is on this but I certainly felt absolute disaster was much closer to tangible 6 months ago.
Even if (though) the system is being propped up by a fantasy; reality has bitten into society in a way thought impossible a few short years ago.
If our funny munny games can buy us some thinking and working time; this is at least an opportunity for a reinvention and reorientataion as opposed to overnight return to the bronze age.