[frankthetank]

Newsweek has a Q&A about a new book out.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n his new book, $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better,Forbes writer Christopher Steiner argues that the increasing cost of fuel will radically change the way we live, from the cities we choose to call home to the way we grow food. NEWSWEEK'S Nancy Cook spoke to Steiner about why he thinks Americans will be forced to restrict plane travel to once a year at most, why solar panels will line the rooftops of apartments, and how gas prices will force suburbanites back into cities.

[heroineworshipper]

People used to panic & switch to Civics when gas hit $1.60. Now that the refinancing boom is back, people are hauling their 6 ton SUV's back & forth every day at $3/gallon like nothing ever happened. $20/gallon will just be compensated by another refinancing of the ol' toaster oven mortgage.

[kiwichick]

$20/ gallon = approx. $5.33/ litre

current price in OZ approx. $1.30

can't see any aussies wanting to pay anywhere near $5.00

[outcast]

Demand destruction started when gas hit $4 a gallon, I don't see it even reaching $10.

[frankthetank]

I agree with those that say its never going to even come close. People will go insane when it jumps north of $5... When it hits $10 the method of filling up the tank will be by siphon or outright gas station theft. No one will have jobs so i doubt there will be much need at anything north of $10.

[FireJack]

"$20/gallon will just be compensated by another refinancing of the ol' toaster oven mortgage."

That time is already over. You can only keep the debt growing for so long before everything comes crashing down. Right now it looks like oil will remain steady until shortages appear.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'P')eople used to panic & switch to Civics when gas hit $1.60. Now that the refinancing boom is back, people are hauling their 6 ton SUV's back & forth every day at $3/gallon like nothing ever happened. $20/gallon will just be compensated by another refinancing of the ol' toaster oven mortgage.

[AirlinePilot]

I Agree Frank, anything above the 8-10$/gallon range brings the US economy to its knees, at least in it's present form.

[VMarcHart]

One thing though, $20/gallon will be the bad that will be good. Like, you know, some bad things happen to us, and in hindsight it was a good thing because it made us jump out of the boiling water.

It's insane we use so much energy, especially so inefficiently. If we can't be good stewards, we might as well not use it.

[pup55]

Well let's see:

9.5 million barrels of gasoline per day
times 42 gallons per barrel
times 365
times $20 per gallon

$2.9 trillion....

That's about a quarter of our GDP going to gasoline....

[Carlhole]

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]As you're filling up your tank this weekend, it'll be hard not to think about the cost. Back when gas was $4/gallon, many of us made seemingly radical changes to our lifestyle, cutting back how much we went out to eat, riding the subway more, even moving closer to work.

But $4 gas was only the tip of the iceberg, says Chris Steiner, author of the new book "$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better" (Hachette Book Group, June 2009). According to Steiner, a staff writer at Forbes magazine, gas prices could top $20 per gallon soon - dramatically changing every aspect of life as we know it.

Recently, HAI's associate editor Lara Crigger sat down with Steiner to discuss why the Chinese will drive up gas prices, what's behind the death (and rebirth) of globalization, and why Wal-Mart is doomed to extinction.

Lara Crigger, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): So tell us a little about "$20 Per Gallon."

Chris Steiner, author, "$20 Per Gallon" (Steiner): Simply put, the book is a thought experiment on what life would be like at higher gas prices. The chapters of the book are arranged by increasingly higher prices - Chapter $4, Chapter $6 and so on, up to Chapter $20 - and they address changes that happen at each level...

[DantesPeak]

Interesting concept but my main beef is with the idea prices will rise gradually. They will not rise gradually. If the past two years are any indication, almost no one will be able to predict where prices will go.

There was actally one trading firm that predicted $147 oil last year, but failed to see the crash below $40. So did I, even though I specifically said in June 2008 there will be a late year crash in oil prices.

Anyway volitility will make planning and adjusting to higher oil prices that much harder.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Ok.

You folks always fail to answer the most basic question.

Will or will not bio-fuels and coal-derived electricty used for battery-operated cars replace oil in sufficient quantities to keep the price of gasoline from rising much above $4/gallon?

Geoff

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'O')k.

You folks always fail to answer the most basic question.

Will or will not bio-fuels and coal-derived electricty used for battery-operated cars replace oil in sufficient quantities to keep the price of gasoline from rising much above $4/gallon?

Geoff

[TheDude]

Biomass in total supplies about 3.5% of US energy consumption, as is depicted on a graph on the EIA front page. Likely they're not including all the costs involved in growing/shipping/refining said biomass, either. We already see very visible limits to what can be done with domestically grown corn; I've heard very rosy scenarios postulated for third-world countries becoming sugarcane ethanol exporters but we're not seeing much action on that front, either.

EVs can only penetrate the auto market so fast; people have good reasons to be dubious about electric bikes/scooters when they have knee-deep snow drifts in their driveway. Aside from these obvious issues people will simply balk at what they perceive as limits in these vehicles = lack of range/charging stations/acceleration/crash safety, their intrinsic strangeness - regarding another alternative fuel, how many average car buyers know the difference between LPG/CNG/LNG? Also the fact that the EVs available for sale are by and large NEVs, that is non highway-legal, hence useless for highway commuting; or highly expensive sports cars like the Tesla, which may have broken 200 deliveries by now.

This is front-to-back a logistics issue and you should divest yourself wholly of fixating on how sexy and cutting edge any technology is; what matters is how affordable and acceptable it is to consumers, and how fast they will adopt them, when they become available in the first place that is.

[jdmartin]

I suspect gas will be $20 at some point, though inflation and relevancy may make it largely meaningless when it does. In the meantime, I'm in the Frank boat that says demand destruction for discretionary driving at $4-5, and massive demand destruction by $10.

[vaseline2008]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') agree with those that say its never going to even come close. People will go insane when it jumps north of $5... When it hits $10 the method of filling up the tank will be by siphon or outright gas station theft. No one will have jobs so i doubt there will be much need at anything north of $10.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'O')k.

You folks always fail to answer the most basic question.

Will or will not bio-fuels and coal-derived electricty used for battery-operated cars replace oil in sufficient quantities to keep the price of gasoline from rising much above $4/gallon?

Geoff

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')nteresting concept but my main beef is with the idea prices will rise gradually. They will not rise gradually. If the past two years are any indication, almost no one will be able to predict where prices will go.

[Starvid]

Anyway, the article is stupid. It predicts lots of things will happen at certain price levels, levels we've had in Europe for decades without the changes he predicts materialising.