[dissident]

The wavelength of the cycle is not going to be constant since we are dealing with a complex nonlinear system. The graphs shown at the linked site are quite impressive and are rather strong evidence of an organized inter-decadal oscillation in the world economy. It is highly improbable that this is a statistical fluke, but I guess we need to have data for a few more centuries to increase the confidence level. What is lacking is good description of the mechanism of this cycle, but this does not count against it being a real phenomenon. This is rather like climate science.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')asn't the supposed "Great Depression of 1990" (a book by Ravi Batra) based on this same curve? Why should I believe it this time?

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')asn't the supposed "Great Depression of 1990" (a book by Ravi Batra) based on this same curve? Why should I believe it this time?

[deMolay]

Boomers are the Greatest Generation. After all we have done for you. You ungrateful whelps. http://theburningplatform.com/economy/b ... s-coming-1

[evilgenius]

I read The Fourth Turning several years ago. It is an eye opener.

There have been a few other people that have posted about this topic, but to date they have not managed to generate much conversation. Maybe your brilliant link with its careful and succinct synopsis will help get the ball rolling. The trick is to get the people to see past the wealth of "zombie" deadend thinking and on to what is reasonable to expect as the outcome of a crisis. The success of the next high depends upon that sort of seed in a way. The alternative is to be so consumed in despondency as to be incapable of taking the reins and letting an unexpected bright future slip away. The horror is that right now, right on the cusp, we have no idea of the depth of the despondency or the punishing ordeal that could bring it on. There is also a resolution at every thirteenth generation which, if I remember correctly, we are also heading into. Empires dissolve and power passes away at those inflection points sometimes.

[Arsenal]

Neat article.. I might pick up that book on my way home.

[Novus]

The whole idea of a 4th turning is a lot of baloney. There are certain laws of nature such as what goes up must inevitably come tumbling down. The converse of that law is not a universal fact of reality. Rome did rise again after it fell. When a species goes extinct it does not come back from extinction.

[mgibbons19]

I love Strauss and Howe. I will read the link, but according to the theory, the boomers are NOT the Greatest Generation. Those were the GIs.

The previous poster is right that PO thinking doesn't play well into T4T, because ppl on this forum are so committed to linear thinking. They see the crisis coming, and that is a hard stop. There is very little thinking as to what might come out the other side, other than Kunstler's handmade world or zombie hordes.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')he whole idea of a 4th turning is a lot of baloney. There are certain laws of nature such as what goes up must inevitably come tumbling down. The converse of that law is not a universal fact of reality. Rome did rise again after it fell. When a species goes extinct it does not come back from extinction.

[TheDude]

Another analysis of Strauss and Howe, from the investment standpoint: A 20-Year Bear Market?

[sittinguy]

That sounds rite on to me. In some ways it made alot of sense in a common sense sort of thinking way.. I hope we don't have to wait until 2025. I think 2012 or before.

That was a GREAT read

[Caffeine]

While I agree that people tend not to make enough use of the notion of "time as a cycle," I get the impression that the article trashes individualism. From the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust as everything seems to be going along swimmingly, large swaths of society begin to chaff under the social conformity of the High, beginning to gravitate to more individualistic pursuits and demanding that their personal interests come first.

[odegaard]

I didn't read the book but I have read enough of the introductions to get the gist.
I disagree with plenty of what they have to say.
but...
I applaud the authors for popularizing the idea of cycles.
Being a trader I am a super duper big fan of the concept of cycles.

Of course the idea of cycles is nothing new but for a while the concept got buried beneath all the Pollyanna sci-fi technological singularity bull sh!t. There was a time when the average man on the street honestly believed that we were going to grow exponentially to infinity.
*remember the dot com days?*
Anybody who opened their mouth and said otherwise would be quickly denounced as "ignorant".
BTW now that the economy has crashed public mood is quite different.

The authors didn't invent anything new. What they did was reintroduce a concept that was forgotten by society and I see that as a good thing.

[RedStateGreen]

I liked Generations better than The Fourth Turning. Once you understand the concept clearly (which the first book does better, IMO), you can see where this is going.

I'm still not sure if this isn't going to be another anomalous cycle like the one during the civil war. For this cycle to be typical the crisis isn't supposed to come until 2020 or so.

[Sixstrings]

I heard these generational ideas somewhere else not too long ago. The other writer, I forget where exactly I saw it, predicts that the millennial generation will be the next "greatest generation," on a par with the WWII generation.

And according to the post in this thread, the millennials will be the "hero" generation.

Somehow, I just have a hard time believing they'll be our heroes -- they're twitter / cellphone / facebook obsessed, entitled-feeling narcissistic babies. The millennials are our salvation? I just don't know.. only if technology really will salvage the industrialized world, then I can see that. But should the highly stability-dependent trappings of consumer technology go down, I just don't see the millennials being much use.

Honestly, how do you go from "entitled" generation to "hero generation?"

[Voice_du_More]

deMolay,

In every generation there are great men and women. Yours is no exception. I rejoice whenever I see anyone coming to a place of honesty in the sight of God about anything. Some people never rise to any significant level because they have no respect for those who know more than they do about things, therefore they cannot learn from those who might be willing to teach.

There is much praise that should be given to the boomer generation. That said the weaknesses in the baby boomer generation are profound. The boomers first rebelled against their parents and then wanted their children to be in obedience. They refused to let their parents 'screw up' their children with all that repressive nonsense and feel insulted when their children want the grandkids to have morals. The are the 'Me' generation and the 'if it feels good do it' generation both of which are abominations to the Lord. Many boomers were the hippies that became the yuppies who founded companies which have only managed to move society ever closer to it's own destruction. Lastly, as if this alone were not enough, Boomers tend to be proud by proxy, rather than being honest about their own individual achievements and honest about their own failures they stand proud of their whole generation. So here I am talkin' bout your generation.

There is still a chance for redemption but it does'nt come from a meeting in secret at dusk every third Tuesday. The Bible says the righteous man is known by his own works and the sinner his own sin, and everyone eventually receives from the Lord for the good or evil they have done. It also says 'there is salvation in no other name given under heaven' than the name of Jesus.

[deMolay]

Hi, I only said the Boomers were the Greatest Generation to stir the pot. I know many hate Boomers. Boomers did many good things, as well has some dumb things. It is the same for each group as they pass through history. But I think it can only be seen best after the fact. The X, Y and what ever the hell they call the next fad group will suffer the same fate. But on one thing I think we have concensus, Shit Is Going Down Man. Many people feel we are on the cusp of something big. What is that "BIG" is the question. Is it a Global Shitsandwich or is it Rapture and Nirvana?