[Katzepfote]

So far in this topic, the "crash" that has been primarily discussed is an economic one. If that was the only one we were facing, we might be able to muddle through. But when you consider the other possible crashes out there -- environmental deterioration, crazy weather changes, water shortages, the assorted geopolitical hotspots -- it's like there's several storm fronts all threatening to converge into the Perfect Storm. A storm that could derail civilization as we know it for at least a century if not longer.

Now I don't see all of us being wiped out. I think you'd need a planet-killing asteroid hit or a pandemic similar to "Captain Trips" from Steve King's "The Stand" only with an total 100% death rate to accomplish that. Or the Yellowstone caldera blowing itself to kingdom come for the first time in several hundred thousand years.

[Kylon]

NOTE: LEGAL DISCLAIMER WHAT I SAY SHOULD IN NO WAY BE CONSTRUED AS FINANCIAL ADVICE, THESE ARE SIMPLY MY SPECULATIONS.


I think that until the price of energy comes down, there won't be any kind of real recovery. Fact of the matter is, economic activity depends on energy, when energy prices are high, economic activity becomes more costly and there's less of it.

Combine that with the factors of increased global warming leading to increased drought and a decrease in crops due to increases in temperature which would lead to increased cost of water and food, a declining population of workers to support the aged and infirmed, a decrease in the available resources of all kinds, the economic bubble fueled by debt collapsing, and I don't see any recovery on a large scale anytime soon.

Our society will have to adjust to economic capacity that matches the limits of the resources we possess. In short we don't have enough resources to sustain large scale economic prosperity for 6.5 billion people. Everyone in the first world is now competing with people in the third world for resources.

I would say with temperatures increasing, and resources becoming more scarce, Canada looks like a tempting place to go. They stand to benefit from global warming, and since they have a low population relative to the available natural resources, there might be an increase in the number of jobs.

I'm thinking that crop production in the long run should become more profitable, as global warming causes crop failures in the developing nations. Places like Canada and Nebraska and Michigan wil have an advantage that will allow them to produce large amounts of crops relative to other parts of the world, which will require lots of people. Crops will be in ever higher demand as local regions of developing nations won't be able to produce everything they need. However it would probably just make the land owners rich. Canada and Siberia make become the breadbaskets of the world and they may be in higher demand, as crops fail elsewhere in the world.


This is just my opinion and it's all purely speculative. How it all plays out is anyone's guess.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('beamofthewave', 'I') read theautomaticearthblogspot.com and from what I am gleaning there we are in the midst of a 2nd great depression and keep in mind that in the first great depression 7 million people died in the US from starvation. At the automatic earth they have a section about how to create a lifeboat to help you and your family. I highly recommend getting a garden started to help you with your grocery bill. Check Layoffs.com for work, it lists places that are hiring as well as jobs that are laying off. Check out Gleaners to lower your food bill, just google them to find the closest one in your area. I took my friend their after her husband lost hours at his job and she thinks it will really help her family. Dont forget to sign up for food stamps and if you have a child Temporary Aid to Needy Families, might as well while they still exist. Also dont for get to sign up for unemployment and if you are old enough social once the unemployment is all used up. We have given 30 trillion to the banksters in the last two years, twice our gross domestic product per year. Overall the world economy has lost 1.25 quadrillion dollars due to hedge fund losses and Credit default swap losses. The entire world gross domestic product is 50 trillion per year. We are in collapse, not just us but the whole world has been economically ruined, start building your lifeboat, help yourself and your family. The last depression didnt touch Russia of course but unfortunately the entire world is going down in this one. The most important thing to get IMO is a water filter if you have kids because once the cities go under and no longer treat the water, the water borne illnesses kill little kids so quick, I lived in the RP for two years and got to see economic collapse there after Marcos stole 20 billion from their economy. What a shit storm we are in for. You have no idea.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesterx', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'C')ould you be more specific - such as a dollar, stock, bond or economic crash? Thanks.

[eXpat]

Nice post Dante. I just would like to add that the gov seems to be of the same idea:
Economist: FDIC gearing up for bank closures
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is gearing up to handle a large number of bank failures expected as a result of bad mortgages, both in residential and commercial real estate, an economist said Tuesday.

“They know they’re going to take down a large number of banks and they can’t do it until they’re staffed up,” said Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

[eXpat]

And another article that thinks October could be the month
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal stock markets could crash in October, as by then it will be clear that the economic recovery many people pinned their hopes on will not materialize, the stimulus option will no longer be a viable one, and proprietary trading desks will decide to go short, economist and investor Enzio von Pfeil, CEO of EconomicClock.com, told CNBC.

"The economic time has to worsen and so these green shoots will morph into black shoots very badly, culminating probably in an October crash," Pfeil said.

"People will finally accept that the unemployment rates will have to keep rising, that productivity will have to keep falling," he added. That in turn will make earnings expectations "fall through the floor."
...
With a backdrop of rising unemployment and an excess supply of goods, Pfeil cited three other key reasons for expecting stocks to tank this winter.

Firstly, he thinks the much hoped-for economic recovery will not materialize and governments will be unable to keep showering the global economy with stimulus packages.

"What will become very apparent by then (October) is the so-called global recovery just is not going to happen. The governments have run out of ammunition, they cannot go on stimulating the economies," Pfeil said. "On top of which, you will find that China itself will be running out of ammunition."

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'A')nd another article that thinks October could be the month
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal stock markets could crash in October, as by then it will be clear that the economic recovery many people pinned their hopes on will not materialize, the stimulus option will no longer be a viable one, and proprietary trading desks will decide to go short, economist and investor Enzio von Pfeil, CEO of EconomicClock.com, told CNBC.

"The economic time has to worsen and so these green shoots will morph into black shoots very badly, culminating probably in an October crash," Pfeil said.

"People will finally accept that the unemployment rates will have to keep rising, that productivity will have to keep falling," he added. That in turn will make earnings expectations "fall through the floor."
...
With a backdrop of rising unemployment and an excess supply of goods, Pfeil cited three other key reasons for expecting stocks to tank this winter.

Firstly, he thinks the much hoped-for economic recovery will not materialize and governments will be unable to keep showering the global economy with stimulus packages.

"What will become very apparent by then (October) is the so-called global recovery just is not going to happen. The governments have run out of ammunition, they cannot go on stimulating the economies," Pfeil said. "On top of which, you will find that China itself will be running out of ammunition."

[Ayoob]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 7441&hl=en

[eXpat]

Watch out for the second semester! a lot of banks are hanging solely on credit!
U.S. bank results to show who flunked credit class
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (Reuters) - For the largest U.S. banks, the second quarter and beyond may be all about credit.

With concerns about large lenders' capital levels on the wane after well over $60 billion of stock sales last quarter, investors will focus on how broadly credit is deteriorating, with particular emphasis on credit cards, commercial loans and commercial real estate.

At the same time, banks will need to demonstrate strong profitability before accounting for credit weakness, in the face of weak demand for loans as consumers worried about the recession and near 10 percent unemployment try to save more.

There is growing optimism for the sector, especially after the federal government in June let 10 of the largest lenders repay more than $68 billion of bailout money taken from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Yet there is no sense that the credit crisis, which set in roughly two years ago, is anywhere near over.
...
While results may be the best since the financial crisis exploded in September, Fox-Pitt Kelton analysts said profit could fall 67 percent from a year earlier.

Banks "are still in the early stages of realizing lifetime credit losses," they wrote.

Indeed, many lenders that have yet to repay more than $1 billion of bailout funds are expected to lose money in the quarter and over the rest of 2009, Thomson Reuters data show.

The roll: Citigroup, SunTrust Banks Inc (STI.N), Regions Financial Corp (RF.N), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O), KeyCorp (KEY.N), Comerica Inc (CMA.N), Marshall & Ilsley Corp (MI.N), Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN.O) and Zions Bancorp (ZION.O).

Banks will report results on the heels of two months of investor indigestion from financial company stocks. The 24-member KBW Bank Index .BKX more than doubled from early March to early May, but has declined in six of the last eight weeks.

Results are likely to be noisy, with many banks incurring charges to repay TARP funds and support the FDIC, which found 305 "problem" lenders as of March 31, a 15-year high.

[the48thronin]

yes!

[pablonite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesterx', 'D')o you think there is a second crash coming

[burn0gas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pablonite', '
')Meh, IMHO those are very geo-specific and have been going on for thousands of years. It's more like they are trying to paralyze you with fear. The cure for that kind of mind programming is get rid of the TV, "Hollywood blockbusters" and major daily newspapers - in a year or so you will be feeling much better

[pablonite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burn0gas', 'I') did just that over two years ago when I had my first child and no longer had time for such entertainment ... although it doesn't help much in feeling better to read PO doom porn!

[jesterx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesterx', 'H')ey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit. I realise that the govt and media keep saying we will be ok but then I keep having to watch many great people that keep giving us the hardcore facts and truth. i like places like
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com
http://www.shadowstats.com
http://www.marketoracle.com
but you guys know what these guys are on about. Do you think there is a second crash coming...i just want to know to warn my friends and help my family.???? any thoughts or input would be more appreciated.

[mark000]

To see larger: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2581/371 ... 8edb_b.jpg

It seems quite possible to me that will be seeing the DOW closing below 4000 as soon as January 2010. I think this is a key level because it represents a fall of 10,000 from the peak, and would lead to a widespread loss of confidence in the future for the consumers, financial institutions and commercial sector of every economy.

Imagine the entire mainstream all becoming doomers within 6 months from now. That is what I suggest might happen at Dow below 4000.

The DOW has been falling at a rate of 1000 every 3 months for 20 months now, as represented by the blue trend line in the chart. I have no optimisim that this trend will end any time soon. Can you see the 'green shoot' of the last 3 months wilting?

It appears that we may drop below the March low of about 6547 as soon as September!

So yes, I do see a 2nd crash coming, only it might be -2000 points over 2 months, compared to -2000 in one month during October 2008.

I believe 2010 will be an abysmal year. And after that comes 2011, 2012, 2013......

[IslandCrow]

I am in the camp of those who think we will have a bumpy ride down, with numberous crashes on the way followed either by some sort of stabalizing and possibly a small recovery before the next drop down. So yes there will be a second crash, and a third, and a fourth, etc. I think we, in the West, have a way to go downwards until the final crash lands us in the doomer-Mad-Max-world. We may well get there (as little is being done to mitigate the ending of abundant cheap energy), but it will take time.

[manu]

The elite can only control so much. They can't control the weather ect. This is spinning out of control day by day. I told everyone in 2006 that there would be a world economic collapse. Now everyone except the peeple wearing blinders can see it happening. The next big jolt will be war, pandemic, and major weather disruptions all in short order. Sept onwards will be a very difficult time. I pray everyone is prepared spiritually, mentally and physically. Om Tat Sat

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'I') am in the camp of those who think we will have a bumpy ride down, with numberous crashes on the way followed either by some sort of stabalizing and possibly a small recovery before the next drop down. So yes there will be a second crash, and a third, and a fourth, etc.

[Katzepfote]

pablonite wrote:
Meh, IMHO those are very geo-specific and have been going on for thousands of years. It's more like they are trying to paralyze you with fear. The cure for that kind of mind programming is get rid of the TV, "Hollywood blockbusters" and major daily newspapers - in a year or so you will be feeling much better.

I'd like to have your "don't worry, be happy" attitude, Pablonite. And while it's true that there are examples of my laundry list of "Perfect Storms" taking place in the past, they may actually prove my point rather than refute it as paranoid fear-mongering. Read "Collapse" by Jared Diamond. He gives examples of how shortages of resources led to the downfall of societies such as Norse settlements in Greenland and Easter Island to give just two examples. Now these were isolated areas and it's true that the rest of the civilizations of that era didn't go to hell in a handbasket. However, we're much more interconnected now and there's several billion of our species competing for resources that have been dwindling over the past century. A thousand years ago, the resources were still plentiful, the environment largely pristine and maybe the total number of humans was maybe a couple hundred million.

As for being "paralyzed" with fear, I'm not. I think one can be blinded just as much by being overly optimistic.

[Kristen]

So what to do in life if such a crash is underway? It is not easy to just dissappear without wealth or resources.