Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 03:53:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Even if it really can only support 300 million, you do realize this thing called "trade" can be done to aquire whatever extra food is needed. If there isn't enough on the market now, then they can always pay people to plant even more.
So from where they will buy extra food? From Mars?
Where they are going to plant more?
On the desert? On their farmland destroyed by industrial development right now?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway any sort of 1 child policy will surely collapse together with collapse of state pensions schemes
Pension schemes are still limited, most people get by on their retirement through this magic thing called "savings". The 1 child policy wont collapse either, and it wont be removed until the population starts to fall.
How do you know that it won't collapse?
It already collapsed (or practically never was there).
It is 2 children policy in practice.
And don't you count on these "savings" too much.
As long as system works there are savings, once it have stopped, there will be none.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't work even now, when everything is fine (as I have alredy noted they have 1.7-1.8 of registered children per woman what translates to practical 2 children policy.
You fail at statistics.
You are writing rubbish without investigating facts:
http://indexmundi.com/china/total_fertility_rate.html $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also cannot imagine what this urban population will do for living once there is no longer demand on Chinese goods.
And that is something that is not going to happen.
Because some moron thinks so?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')resumably much of it will have to go back to countryside.
Fantasy, also wont happen.
Read above.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't mean that long distance trade will be so important in the future and even if it will be important, much lower volumes are likely to be traded.
And this is based on what?
Based on environment of diminishing resources.
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by NickyBoy » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 05:19:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madmarten', 'G')reat post Tyler. Does anybody thinks this trend will change anytime soon? Men do/will have a hard time in this unwinding. I believe for several years now female college freshman have outnumbered males.
Even in the neo-grapes of wrath era, there will plenty of things that need doing, that may be "beneath" many men.
Maybe it will be men who are relegated to house husbands or rather doomstead husbands - who keep the windmill, solarpanels and toilets working.
Health care and Education are mostly funded by money earned from Construction, Manufacturing and Financial services.
With governments and individuals funded by the latter loosing money, the former will soon start to suffer terrible cuts.
All your seeing at the moment is a discrepancy caused by governments funding health/education services via debt and individuls funding them via their savings.
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by outcast » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 06:21:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o from where they will buy extra food? From Mars?
Where they are going to plant more?
On the desert? On their farmland destroyed by industrial development right now?
Russia and Canada, duh. Two of the largest countries in the world and they are practically empty.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is 2 children policy in practice.
That's funny because of the thousand or so children I've known over a couple of years of teaching not a single one of them has any siblings what so ever. Care to explain that?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd don't you count on these "savings" too much.
Everyone else does, and then there's also the kid.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s long as system works there are savings, once it have stopped, there will be none.
Ok so what is your definition of a stopped system?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause some moron thinks so?
More like because that is what the reality is.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on environment of diminishing resources.
Ah yes, the good old diminishing resources arguement. The only things that get truely burned away are fissioned Uranium and burned fossil fuels. Since Uranium is pretty much everywhere and we have many many generations of it left, we aren't running out. Fossil fuels do have a limit, but it still isn't totally clear when exactly that limit will be reached since we keep finding more on a regular basis.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are writing rubbish without investigating facts:
http://indexmundi.com/china/total_fertility_rate.html
I pointed out your failure to understand what that actually means in reality.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')ractically never was there
Isn't that what I said?
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by Fredrik » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 06:43:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o from where they will buy extra food? From Mars?
Where they are going to plant more?
On the desert? On their farmland destroyed by industrial development right now?
Russia and Canada, duh. Two of the largest countries in the world that are practically empty.
I wouldn't trust Russia as a food exporter, especially after the impending warming of several degrees, which will turn Russia's most productive southern farmland into desert. I don't know how much extra food Canada could grow, when synthetic fertilizer has become very expensive. And what useful stuff could China offer in exchange, after the dollar has crashed?
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by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 08:12:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Russia and Canada, duh. Two of the largest countries in the world and they are practically empty.
Blah, blah, blah...
They can either hardly feed themselves (Russians) or do not have a good environment for farming in any case (Canada) and you expect them to feed 1 billion of excess Chinese.
You must be joking.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is 2 children policy in practice.
That's funny because of the thousand or so children I've known over a couple of years of teaching not a single one of them has any siblings what so ever. Care to explain that?
And yet they have close to 2 children per woman at average.
Countryside breeding rate makes all the difference.
Like it or not but Chinese are still mainly a peasant nation.
So whom you was teaching and where?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd don't you count on these "savings" too much.
Everyone else does, and then there's also the kid.
Yeah, plenty of green toilet paper have been saved across Chinese banks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s long as system works there are savings, once it have stopped, there will be none.
Ok so what is your definition of a stopped system?
Lack of growth of GDP for 2-4 years or even probably faster would do to set of unraveling of modern society in China.
At that point you would begin coming back either to commander Mao times and start making steel in villages or alternatively you will return to warlordism which preceded Mao.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore like because that is what the reality is.,eg - Chinese will always manage to export a lot of their goods and keep on growing their current economic model - EU
Oh, well.
Reality is changing as we speak.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince Uranium is pretty much everywhere and we have many many generations of it left, we aren't running out. Fossil fuels do have a limit, but it still isn't totally clear when exactly that limit will be reached since we keep finding more on a regular basis.
I think, it is going to get more clear pretty soon.
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by outcast » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 09:47:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wouldn't trust Russia as a food exporter, especially after the impending warming of several degrees, which will turn Russia's most productive southern farmland into desert.
It pushes their more productive farms farther north, because of Siberian permafrost melting that opens previously inhospitable or inaccessible regions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd what useful stuff could China offer in exchange
Given that it is the factory of the world I think the Russians can find something.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey can either hardly feed themselves (Russians) or do not have a good environment for farming in any case (Canada)
Russia's problems are because of bad management, the economic collapse of the 90's, and poorly planned policies. It is turning around. Even so they still have lots of good land.
Canada's climate might not be good for warm weather fruits, but it is one of the top agricultural producing countries in the world.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd yet they have close to 2 children per woman at average.
Even many people in the countryside don't have that many.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ountryside breeding rate makes all the difference.
And 8% of the population being able to have as many as they want somehow doesn't put upward pressure on the average?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ike it or not but Chinese are still mainly a peasant nation.
Actually more like 55% of it is, with that number dropping steadily. The countryside is emptying out, for good.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, plenty of green toilet paper have been saved across Chinese banks.
I was talking about people, not governments.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ack of growth of GDP for 2-4 years
Which isn't happening.
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by Fredrik » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 11:31:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wouldn't trust Russia as a food exporter, especially after the impending warming of several degrees, which will turn Russia's most productive southern farmland into desert.
It pushes their more productive farms farther north, because of Siberian permafrost melting that opens previously inhospitable or inaccessible regions.
I sincerely hope you're right. But those acidic taiga soils are far inferior in nutrients, and clearing up all the area required will be a daunting task. One solution would be to burn the forests sector by sector (ash makes for a fairly good fertilizer for a year or two), to hell with CO2 emission limits.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd what useful stuff could China offer in exchange
Given that it is the factory of the world I think the Russians can find something.
It would have to be something essential in a post-fossil fuel world.
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by odegaard » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 12:27:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '[')img]http://wallstreetpit.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image66.png[/img]
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6445913.ece$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')omen are victors in ‘mancession’
...
To: Tyler_JC
Do you honestly think non-discrimination laws will be upheld in a post PO world?
If you say yes I'm going to have a good laugh at your expense.
Folks don't get me wrong.
I'm not saying all the women out there will submissively lie down on their backs and accept what's coming to them.
Of course they will fight tooth and nail to the bitter end to resist change.
But it will be futile.
Once the full effects of PO hits: war, recession, famine, a 75% drop in world population, social unrest, etc...The Laws that we have on the books today aren't going to be worth toilet paper.
A new set of rules will be written up.
I'll give you a hint. These "new rules" are NOT going to be
written up by these folks.
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by outcast » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 12:33:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t would have to be something essential in a post-fossil fuel world
How about clothes?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') sincerely hope you're right. But those acidic taiga soils are far inferior in nutrients, and clearing up all the area required will be a daunting task. One solution would be to burn the forests sector by sector (ash makes for a fairly good fertilizer for a year or two), to hell with CO2 emission limits.
It also occured to me that there's also the side west of the Urals, lots of prime farmland there and also in other former communist countries like Ukraine. I read somewhere Russia has 1/7 of the worlds fertile land. Enormous potential there.
EDIT: And I'll also add that many kinds of plants generally do better with more heat and CO2 than normal, so it is questionable whether or not global warming in Russia would kill off the "breadbasket" so much as make it even bigger.
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by Tanada » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 13:19:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wouldn't trust Russia as a food exporter, especially after the impending warming of several degrees, which will turn Russia's most productive southern farmland into desert.
It pushes their more productive farms farther north, because of Siberian permafrost melting that opens previously inhospitable or inaccessible regions.
I sincerely hope you're right. But those acidic taiga soils are far inferior in nutrients, and clearing up all the area required will be a daunting task. One solution would be to burn the forests sector by sector (ash makes for a fairly good fertilizer for a year or two), to hell with CO2 emission limits.
The heck with making Potash, turn it into biochar and testing shows the effect will be an improvement lasting decades to millennium, depending on just what percentage of the soil is char.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 15:33:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')It pushes their more productive farms farther north, because of Siberian permafrost melting that opens previously inhospitable or inaccessible regions.
Most of Siberian land is not suitable for farming because of acidic soils and very short growing season.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iven that it is the factory of the world I think the Russians can find something.
Russians are quite mean.
They don't buy many toys for their children.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussia's problems are because of bad management, the economic collapse of the 90's, and poorly planned policies. It is turning around. Even so they still have lots of good land.
This is only part of the problem.
High latitudes translating into cold climate and short growing season are even more important.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada's climate might not be good for warm weather fruits, but it is one of the top agricultural producing countries in the world.
It does not change overall situation that most of Canadian land is unsuitable for farming.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd 8% of the population being able to have as many as they want somehow doesn't put upward pressure on the average?
These are rubbish.
Han Chinese (92%) are not the only group where 1 child (or 2-3 children in countryside) policy is applicable.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he countryside is emptying out, for good.
You must be a wizard.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, plenty of green toilet paper have been saved across Chinese banks.
I was talking about people, not governments.
And peoples savings are in instruments relaying on green toilet paper for their own functioning.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ack of growth of GDP for 2-4 years
Which isn't happening.yet.
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by Tyler_JC » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 21:01:26
I'm not talking about anti-discrimination laws or a gender equal society or anything like that.
I'm just looking at the numbers for this recession. It appears that men are suffering more than women in terms of job losses. This could change but the pattern seems pretty consistent so far.
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by outcast » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 23:26:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')an Chinese (92%) are not the only group where 1 child (or 2-3 children in countryside) policy is applicable.
It isn't applicable to any of the minorities.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh latitudes translating into cold climate and short growing season are even more important.
Ignorance speaks again.
http://www.gadling.com/2007/07/16/giant ... tate-fair/$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t does not change overall situation that most of Canadian land is unsuitable for farming.
Wow, so if it is so unsuitable then how can they produce so much as it is?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of Siberian land is not suitable for farming because of acidic soils and very short growing season.
See Tanada's post.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd peoples savings are in instruments relaying on green toilet paper for their own functioning.
Not for long.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou must be a wizard.
You must be a moron.
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by jdmartin » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 00:09:04
Right now I think it's on the money that men seeking employment are in a bitch of a situation. A lot of open jobs are part-time, which far fewer men than women are willing to accept. Even more have no health care, which is the kiss of death to a man trying to replace his previous health-cared position.
As for education, I teach graduate-level at a University. *By far*, the best students are female. Most of the male students aren't worth a crap. Some of the female students aren't, either, but they're better on average.
I think this is a dangerous trend. Men without jobs eventually = suicide bombers. Ok, not everywhere. But high levels of unemployment amongst young men is going to create a lot of violence. Part of the reasoning of keeping young (really, all) men working in an industrial society is the reduction of agitation. Very few revolutions, civil wars, genocides, and the like were started by hordes of unemployed women.
A return to more spatial-oriented survival (ie, farming/community services) might bring the gender roles closer to historic norms, but might also create new partnerships and values for men & women.
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by Stonemason » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 02:25:20
The problem with establishments or established ways of thinking is that we live in an emergent universe. The only constant is that there is no constant. When going against the nature of nature, its easy to have convulsions of stupidity.
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by Fredrik » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 04:05:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stonemason', 'T')he problem with establishments or established ways of thinking is that we live in an emergent universe. The only constant is that there is no constant. When going against the nature of nature, its easy to have convulsions of stupidity.
Does that apply to ethics as well? Are universal human rights and equality not constant either?
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by odegaard » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 08:30:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')'m not talking about anti-discrimination laws or a gender equal society or anything like that.
I'm just looking at the numbers for this recession. It appears that men are suffering more than women in terms of job losses. This could change but the pattern seems pretty consistent so far.
Unfortunately you and many others were not paying attention to what I said earlier so I'll have to repeat it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('On page 3 - I said', 'O')nce oil dries up so does feminism.
That's my theory....and that's just the beginning phase.
I expect to see this happen within my lifetime --> society returning back to the single income family.
Notice my statement clearly indicates the future and NOT what is happening right now in the present.
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by NickyBoy » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 10:10:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stonemason', 'T')he problem with establishments or established ways of thinking is that we live in an emergent universe. The only constant is that there is no constant. When going against the nature of nature, its easy to have convulsions of stupidity.
Does that apply to ethics as well? Are universal human rights and equality not constant either?
Go back 500 years, look at what was considered ethical at the time, then answer your own question.
Its the height of hubris to think that early 21st century ethics are the end-point of ethical development.
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by odegaard » Thu 09 Jul 2009, 10:57:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NickyBoy', '.')..
Go back 500 years, look at what was considered ethical at the time, then answer your own question.
Its the height of hubris to think that early 21st century ethics are the end-point of ethical development.
I believe that much of our "social advancements" for the past couple hundred years came about because economic prosperity made it convenient; It did NOT arise because we all sat around and had a philosophical discussion and concluded that equality is right.
This is what Liberals do NOT understand. -->
It is very easy to advocate a cause when it's NOT costing you anything.For example it's very easy to say, "I believe women should have equal right to pursue a career just like men.".....when there are plenty of jobs to go around for everybody.
In an economically collapsed world where there's only 1 paying job for every 2 people who want it (a man and a woman) who will get it?
Exactly, it's a rhetorical question. We all know what the answer is.
Yeah I know I guess I must of slaughtered somebody's sacred cow here.
Enjoy feminism while it lasts. PO will kill it off.
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by EnergyUnlimited » Fri 10 Jul 2009, 04:09:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')an Chinese (92%) are not the only group where 1 child (or 2-3 children in countryside) policy is applicable.
It isn't applicable to any of the minorities.
That is only official Chinese PR exercise.
http://www.tibetjustice.org/reports/women/iv.html $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh latitudes translating into cold climate and short growing season are even more important.
Ignorance speaks again.
http://www.gadling.com/2007/07/16/giant ... tate-fair/
So are we going to have 200 millions of Alaskans devouring giant cabbages and carrots anytime soon? 
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t does not change overall situation that most of Canadian land is unsuitable for farming.
Wow, so if it is so unsuitable then how can they produce so much as it is?
To help feeding 1 billion of excess Chinese they would have to produce many times more.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of Siberian land is not suitable for farming because of acidic soils and very short growing season.
See Tanada's post.
Methods which he referrs to are working in hot climate of South America, not in subpolar zones.
I believe, he has terra preta or similar approaches in mind.
Nb.
It still takes decades to convert suitable land into such farming setups.
However if applied in taiga, it would be simple slush and burn policy resulting in few years of harvest and desert left behind.
Russians tried similar things in Kazakhstan during Khrushchev rule with miserable effects.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd peoples savings are in instruments relaying on green toilet paper for their own functioning.
Not for long.
So are we waiting for a reset, so Chinese can start saving again another kind of paper, which is going to turn worthless later?
Poor Chinese, they are working so hard just to get some paper as reward.
In any case with a fall of dollar all existing dollar pegged Chinese savings will go down the drain.
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