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We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby perdition79 » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 01:29:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ho is more likely to get laid off in this recession, the school teacher and the nurse or the investment banker and the construction worker?

The first category is a field dominated by women, the second by men.

There's your unemployment gap.


When the times change, it's time to change the strategy: create jobs for men by getting all the women pregnant.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 02:57:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')So basically, you are saying, China is, as it has been, for many centuries. The only change in the last few centuries has been an improvement in the degree of consolidation of the frontier territories. They are more Han than they have ever been, and better connected to the East than ever before. When Joe Merchant of the West wants to ship product, do you think he is going to want to send it West over dirt roads, mountains, and crazed fanatics, or do you suppose, he'll send it East to the coast, over giant paved roads patrolled by Han military forces?

China not only will survive, but will likely survive intact.

Performance of the past is not necessarily a guideline to performance in the future.

You have also forgot one important thing:
They have over 1 billion peoples too much and these peoples are likely to refuse to go peacefully for common good.
On the top of it their 1 child policy looks in practice like 2 children policy (1.7-1.8 registered children per woman).

And anyway, do you really consider sending merchandise to the East to be important activity in coming years?
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 03:02:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ho is more likely to get laid off in this recession, the school teacher and the nurse or the investment banker and the construction worker?

The first category is a field dominated by women, the second by men.

There's your unemployment gap.

Nice cherry picking, Tyler.

What about countless (and not really needed) clerical jobs across countless companies, what about those jobs requiring good interpersonal skills, what about supermarket jobs, other customer care jobs etc?
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 03:29:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', 'T')his recession is killing off jobs that we will never see return.
If there's only 1 job opening and 2 people who want it: a man and woman who will get the job?
I believe that modern feminism was made possible because oil / cheap energy made the economy expand so there was plenty of paying jobs for BOTH men and women.
Once oil dries up so does feminism.
That's my theory....and that's just the beginning phase.
I expect to see this happen within my lifetime --> society returning back to the single income family.

You see, full belly environment have created a lot of value added jobs (mainly for women) which are nice to keep but yet not essential for functioning of society.
Countless jobs of this type have been legislated in, just to create an income opportunity for someone who would otherwise stay dormant in bedroom and bathroom environment.

However it is so nice to go here and there to deal/buy something and be greeted by nice female.
I think, it is worth to keep them working if they want for as long as possible, but my overall view about prospects of preserving these jobs after TSHTF is very bleak.
Of course few of these jobs will stay for a while because of male ego of some bosses who will try to keep highly ornamental females in their offices until they get bankrupt themselves.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 04:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s this Phase II.0 or just plain Vanilla Phase II?...

I sincerely believe post PO, we will go back to the single income family.
Notice I said "single income" and not "single working" big difference.
Ohh...They'll be plenty of work for women to do, they just won't be paid work:
*dodges all the flying rocks from angry feminists*

This recession is killing off jobs that we will never see return.
If there's only 1 job opening and 2 people who want it: a man and woman who will get the job?
I believe that modern feminism was made possible because oil / cheap energy made the economy expand so there was plenty of paying jobs for BOTH men and women.
Once oil dries up so does feminism.
That's my theory....and that's just the beginning phase.
I expect to see this happen within my lifetime --> society returning back to the single income family.

not so fast jimbo. :P
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Women are holding onto their jobs more than their male counterparts in the recession as the types of jobs women hold generally offer more stability, albeit at less pay.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-01-11-unemployment-rate-sexes_N.htm


Nobodypanic is right. Feminism didn't bring equality so much as just a *sharing* of the breadwinner role. There are studies out showing disturbing trends in young men not going to college as much as women, etc. A lot of guys in the 18-30ish demo have really given up, spending all day playing WOW and Nintendo Wii or whatever.. they're not showing the kind of career drive that young women are.

So it shouldn't be assumed that post peak, women will be doing the "women's work" -- it may just as likely be the man at home.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 08:01:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')o it shouldn't be assumed that post peak, women will be doing the "women's work" -- it may just as likely be the man at home.

Women will lack sufficient physical strength in the world where most of job must be done "by hand".

And clumsy man who sits at home will fail to find a partner in any case, unless he has plenty of assets.
It would be a huge mistake for any woman to decide to invest her time in such a person, particularly when current status quo unravels.

I genuinely don't see sufficient amount of paid jobs suitable for women in environment of Nature-enforced powerdown, which I expect to unfold.
OK, there will be plenty of long, boring and never ending jobs at home also known as womanly jobs to do, but these will be taken for granted.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby graham » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 08:26:11

There'll still be job opportunities for hookers.........
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby Caffeine » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 11:04:10

Perhaps the future shape that society takes has a lot more to do with what the elites want for us than what we want for ourselves. For example, if they want to create a law to draft women for this war or that war, then that's exactly what would happen. If they want women to stay at home and make lots of babies... they'll stay at home and make babies, and so on.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby outcast » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 13:02:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')So basically, you are saying, China is, as it has been, for many centuries. The only change in the last few centuries has been an improvement in the degree of consolidation of the frontier territories. They are more Han than they have ever been, and better connected to the East than ever before. When Joe Merchant of the West wants to ship product, do you think he is going to want to send it West over dirt roads, mountains, and crazed fanatics, or do you suppose, he'll send it East to the coast, over giant paved roads patrolled by Han military forces?

China not only will survive, but will likely survive intact.

Performance of the past is not necessarily a guideline to performance in the future.

You have also forgot one important thing:
They have over 1 billion peoples too much and these peoples are likely to refuse to go peacefully for common good.
On the top of it their 1 child policy looks in practice like 2 children policy (1.7-1.8 registered children per woman).

And anyway, do you really consider sending merchandise to the East to be important activity in coming years?




Point by point:
a.) Why do you think 1 billion people are going to die?
b.) That's because some people in the countryside do have 2 children, and a select group of really rich people can afford the fines and taxes for a second child. Also all ethnic minorities are exempt from the policy so they can have as many children as they want. The first catagory is going away because of China's rapid urbanization, and the second group can be handled through changes in policy (steeper penalties for one thing).
c.) Trade is more important now than it has been at any point since the great depression.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 14:48:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'W')omen will lack sufficient physical strength in the world where most of job must be done "by hand".


Have you ever watched rice seedlings planted by hand? There is no instance of great physical strength required, being heavier and taller makes the job harder in fact. Have you ever seen peas and corn picked by hand? Hours upon hours of hard agricultural labor, very little in the way of strength required. Have you ever seen peas shelled by the bushel, fruit preserved in canning jars as jams, preserves, etc. Have you ever placed your eyes upon a table covered with pickling jars filled with hundreds of small cucumbers, green tomatoes, carrots, and stuff you don't recognize but happens to be really tasty!?

I promise you one thing, after "the man" comes back into the house, shaking with exhaustion, sitting down on some ricketty straw and wood chair, hunched over, covered in dust. beaten to all **** by the jobs that did require the full strength of his body. he'll look at those twelve bushels of peas and corn and a thought will cross his mind. That if he were alone to sustain himself, he'd starve to death in plain sight of enough food to feed an army.

Only the hollywierd portrayal of backwards farm life, drunken coal miners, and kids trying to escape rural hades thinks this "womans work" goes unnoticed or unappreciated.

This stereotype of barging into the house, abusive, and full of p*** and vinegar is a ridiculous fiction. When "the man" gets back in from 14 hours in the heat, exhausted, bleeding, or whatever, his only thoughts will be about rest and cool water or iced tea if they're lucky enough to have some ice.

I have a hunch, that culturally, this derision of "women's work" is a creation of our industrial drive that seeks to crush and scatter extended families, and drive women onto production lines in order to serve the capitalistic need for more and cheaper labor. Just a hunch though.

As an aside, there are lots of outside the home jobs that will continue regardless of collapse, that require very little in the way of physical strength. Everything from medicine to the repairing of small machines... So I'm not, in the above example trying to restrict the idea one way or the other, but rather simply to demonstrate a counterexample to the suggested valuation.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 15:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')a.) Why do you think 1 billion people are going to die?

Lack of sufficient medical services and poor nutrition in environment of scarcity will do the trick.
200-300 million is about all which Chinese land can sustainably support.
Even that is probably overoptimistic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b').) That's because some people in the countryside do have 2 children, and a select group of really rich people can afford the fines and taxes for a second child. Also all ethnic minorities are exempt from the policy so they can have as many children as they want. The first catagory is going away because of China's rapid urbanization, and the second group can be handled through changes in policy (steeper penalties for one thing).

If anyone is exempted from 1 child policy it would be rather various groups of Chinese, not ethnic minorities.
1 child policy is applied with particular zeal against few minorities like Tibetans or Uighurs.

Anyway any sort of 1 child policy will surely collapse together with collapse of state pensions schemes (and 1 child policy practically ensure such collapse, even without peak oil, economic depressions etc.)
It doesn't work even now, when everything is fine (as I have alredy noted they have 1.7-1.8 of registered children per woman what translates to practical 2 children policy.

I also cannot imagine what this urban population will do for living once there is no longer demand on Chinese goods.
Presumably much of it will have to go back to countryside.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c').) Trade is more important now than it has been at any point since the great depression.

It doesn't mean that long distance trade will be so important in the future and even if it will be important, much lower volumes are likely to be traded.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 16:11:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'O')nly the hollywierd portrayal of backwards farm life, drunken coal miners, and kids trying to escape rural hades thinks this "womans work" goes unnoticed or unappreciated.

However the reality is that it goes unpaid.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have a hunch, that culturally, this derision of "women's work" is a creation of our industrial drive that seeks to crush and scatter extended families, and drive women onto production lines in order to serve the capitalistic need for more and cheaper labor. Just a hunch though.

If women want to have a paid job, they must do it and all those extended families are going to be scattered.
However if paid jobs for women become rare, then extended families will return.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s an aside, there are lots of outside the home jobs that will continue regardless of collapse, that require very little in the way of physical strength. Everything from medicine to the repairing of small machines...

...and that will still leave substantial majority of women without paid jobs.
You see, there is good reason why in the past it was rare for woman to have a paid job.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 16:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', 'I') need your advice. How do I explain to Tyler_JC that we do not live in a gender equal society? :?

I don't really know.
We could try very hard to demonstrate it, but he may still refuse to consider any arguments and receive all required reassurance from Fox News or similar source. :-D
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 16:31:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', 'P')erhaps the future shape that society takes has a lot more to do with what the elites want for us than what we want for ourselves. For example, if they want to create a law to draft women for this war or that war, then that's exactly what would happen. If they want women to stay at home and make lots of babies... they'll stay at home and make babies, and so on.

Too defeatist view.
Power of TPTB is also limited and can easy be shaken, once society becomes dysfunctional enough.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 17:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'H')owever the reality is that it goes unpaid.


I don't want to downplay cash payment too much; but I think the reality is that most of what ALL of us do to further our family's survival will go unpaid. Families will need to find some income, somehow; but that could just as easily be the aunt working as a doctor in an urban center depositing cash to cover the taxes on the family farm/estate/shack, as it could be the lucky one out of a hundred guys that finds a paying, manual labor job.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever if paid jobs for women become rare, then extended families will return.


Again, I suspect decent paid jobs for EVERYONE will be exceedingly rare.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s an aside, there are lots of outside the home jobs that will continue regardless of collapse, that require very little in the way of physical strength. Everything from medicine to the repairing of small machines...

...and that will still leave substantial majority of women without paid jobs.
You see, there is good reason why in the past it was rare for woman to have a paid job.


You're obsessed with paid jobs.

The substantial majority of all of us are going to be without paid jobs. Already getting there via reduction in pay and increases in prices. Are you really going to want that job, or value it highly when 30 hours of work gets you enough cash to buy a peanut butter sandwich?

The way I see it; there are two necessities, to keep even with the taxing authorities, and to put calories on the table. I suspect there will be enough paid work available for a family to find payed employment for at least one of its members; whether that member is a boy or girl doesn't really make much difference. If its the girl with the o-scope, a few hundred pounds of scavenged and sorted parts and deft fingers on the soldering iron; or the guy with a shovel and a mile worth of ditch in need of digging; its the same math.

They'd still all starve to death if they tried to live on what the payed employment provided in terms of after tax cash.

Its time to start considering how to live when 60 hours of employment provide just enough cash to keep the taxing authority from taking your home from you.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 17:35:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Its time to start considering how to live when 60 hours of employment provide just enough cash to keep the taxing authority from taking your home from you.

Taxing authority may put out of home something like 2-5% of families without much trouble.
When evictions goes up to 10% they are heading for serious difficulties and at even higher level (say 20%) there will be a civil war.
In devastated society taxes probably will remain very low but there won't be much services either.
Attempts to rise them up beyond certain levels will result in deepening of societal collapse, until some equilibrium between income opportunities and levels of taxation is reached.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby AgentR » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 17:54:26

I'm thinking more along the lines of taxes to the point where people lose the titles to their homes and land, but aren't forcibly evicted and just left in place, gradually ramping up of the pressure from external difficulties of their situation, till they just leave.
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby outcast » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 22:55:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ack of sufficient medical services and poor nutrition in environment of scarcity will do the trick.
200-300 million is about all which Chinese land can sustainably support.
Even that is probably overoptimistic.


Poor nutrition? Right now there's a growing problem with obesity in children because so many are too well fed. Lack of sufficient medicine? When China's population reached 1 billion people 30 years ago that was a real problem, and to some degree it still is a problem but it is getting much better now. Even if it really can only support 300 million, you do realize this thing called "trade" can be done to aquire whatever extra food is needed. If there isn't enough on the market now, then they can always pay people to plant even more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f anyone is exempted from 1 child policy it would be rather various groups of Chinese, not ethnic minorities.
1 child policy is applied with particular zeal against few minorities like Tibetans or Uighurs.


That is nonsense.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway any sort of 1 child policy will surely collapse together with collapse of state pensions schemes


Pension schemes are still limited, most people get by on their retirement through this magic thing called "savings". The 1 child policy wont collapse either, and it wont be removed until the population starts to fall.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't work even now, when everything is fine (as I have alredy noted they have 1.7-1.8 of registered children per woman what translates to practical 2 children policy.


You fail at statistics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also cannot imagine what this urban population will do for living once there is no longer demand on Chinese goods.

And that is something that is not going to happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')resumably much of it will have to go back to countryside.

Fantasy, also wont happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't mean that long distance trade will be so important in the future and even if it will be important, much lower volumes are likely to be traded.

And this is based on what?
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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 23:04:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ho is more likely to get laid off in this recession, the school teacher and the nurse or the investment banker and the construction worker?

The first category is a field dominated by women, the second by men.

There's your unemployment gap.

Nice cherry picking, Tyler.

What about countless (and not really needed) clerical jobs across countless companies, what about those jobs requiring good interpersonal skills, what about supermarket jobs, other customer care jobs etc?


Image

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6445913.ece

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')omen are victors in ‘mancession’
Gender roles are being rewritten in America as men bear the brunt of job losses

THE economic crisis is sweeping away men’s jobs at a faster rate than those of women in America, heralding the onset of a so-called “mancession”.

New unemployment figures have revealed the biggest gap in jobless rates between men and women for more than half a century. The shifting pattern is redefining gender roles and challenging the status of men as family breadwinners.


http://blogs.eweek.com/careers/content001/firing/is_this_recession_a_man-cession.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere's how outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas puts it in its latest report:

The recession has been particularly hard on men. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that the number of unemployed men aged 20 and older has doubled in the last year alone, increasing from 3.7 million in May 2008 to 7.5 million last month. The ranks of unemployed women have also grown during that time, but not nearly as fast. Last month, the BLS counted about 5.6 million out-of-work women aged 20 and over, up from 3.6 million in May 2008.

There are no up-to-date statistics on the percentage of unemployed men who are fathers. However, in 2008 there were 743,000 married couple families with children under age 18 in which the father was unemployed. That was up 18 percent from 628,000 married couple families with unemployed fathers in 2007.

"Some have dubbed this recession the 'man-cession' because of the heavy impact that the downturn has had on construction, manufacturing and financial services; industries heavily occupied by men. Meanwhile, health care and education, sectors dominated by women, are doing relatively better," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The numbers say there are 2 million more men than women out of work. Two million is 2 million--and that's hard to ignore.


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Re: We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding

Postby madmarten » Wed 08 Jul 2009, 00:35:20

Great post Tyler. Does anybody thinks this trend will change anytime soon? Men do/will have a hard time in this unwinding. I believe for several years now female college freshman have outnumbered males.

Even in the neo-grapes of wrath era, there will plenty of things that need doing, that may be "beneath" many men.

Maybe it will be men who are relegated to house husbands or rather doomstead husbands - who keep the windmill, solarpanels and toilets working.
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