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Spreading World Food Abundance

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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 20:34:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o one gets you Oily. You lecture no one but yourself. I remain at this site only to harass you. You are my albatross, a burden to lift forever. :mrgreen:

I'm glad I amuse you, and I'm glad you intend to stick around - because as your incessant predictions of doom and "peak despair" consistently fail to come to pass, I shall consistently remind you.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 21:05:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'c')ome to pass? As if I ever make predictions?

We've been through this before - or have you forgotten? How many times here have you predicted:

1. We are already past peak
2. Oil shale is a cornucopian fantasy which will never come to pass
3. Tar sands will never amount to much
4. Deepwater will never amount to much
5. Shale natural gas is still unproven

And blah blah blah. I could easily find your quotes predicting these, but I think I probably don't need to because I know that you know you've said them. The last time we had this discussion you pretended you knew these things as fact - but of course you haven't the slightest clue. If we have a new oil production record in the future you are going to look like a complete asshat, and I will be sure to remind you of the fact. When they start producing oil shale in commercial quantities (perhaps that Moroccan stuff in the near future?), you are going to look like a complete asshat, and I will be sure to point it out. You are already starting to look like a complete asshat for #5. And who knows how many more that I've lost track of.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 21:10:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')I never had made any predictions regarding peak,

>>> A big, fat, blatant lie. Dishonesty personified. Sleaze to the max. <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'O')h really? I'd be more than happy to point out how many times recently you've told us:

1) We are past peak
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'n')ot a prediction. We are.

That is a prediction my friend. You pretend it is a fact, but you know no such thing.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 21:44:43

What a complete idiot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr in 1983', 'O')f course it is a fact. How could you possibly hope to dispute it? That is ridiculous. Never have we pumped petroleum per itemized period then when we did in 1979.

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here has already been a peak of production. And before that there were many other peaks. Who said we get only one. Not me.

Good god, what a complete imbecile and moron. You are already backpeddling on your own prediction. When I said above you are a sleazeball, I really meant it. You wouldn't happen to be Bernie Madoff's brother by any chance?

:roll:

By virtue of your backing off on your own prediction - already - you have lost this debate.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 22:15:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')one of your little cornucopian pet projects (algae biofuels, corn and cellulosic ethanol, CTL, Green River Shale Gunk, Asphalt Sands, wind and solar, ultra deep water) NONE OF THEM, have made the slightest dent on the net petroleum production or expected continuing declines---in spite of record oil prices

Check this out - this is prime evidence of what a sleazeball we're dealing with here.

Notice that he said Green River shale. Not just "oil shale" but - specifically - Green River shale. Funny, that's not what he was saying just a scant 2 months ago.

Here (2nd post from the top) in response to someone saying that oil shale can be extracted with the same technology as oil sands, he said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')nd provided the Tooth Fairy descended from Target Heaven to bestow a set of wings to each Piggy that wanted to fly off to that great Shopping Mall in the Sky.

There was nothing specifically about Green River shale - it was *any* shale.

And then here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')hale gunk remains a cornucopians gimmick.
Notice he did not say "Green River shale gunk remains a cornucopians [sic] gimmick." It was any shale.
Another here: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')hale wasn't economic at $40, isn't at $150, and it won't be tomorrow at any price. That's because the infrastructure used to acquire it and the consumer society that would use it, are structured on light, sweet, pressurized crude.

And so on. Not coincidentally, in the interim I posted this article here, so now all of a sudden it's not just "oil shale" that will never happen, it's "Green River oil shale" that will never happen.

Hmmm. I think this picture is appropriate:
Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 17:08:43

That wasn't an answer.
It's you that doesn't get it!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'D')o you realise what you've just said. :-D

Yes, I do.

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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 22:14:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'T')hat wasn't an answer.
It's you that doesn't get it!

OK, if you insist I'll help you out here.

Let's look at 3 possible population scenarios.

#1 I'll call the Malthusian scenario. In this one the doomer crowd eventually proves to be correct and we have a Malthusian population crash. In this graphic I randomly chose a peak population of 10 billion which would occur somewhere around 2070. However, the maximum population could be more or less, and the date of the peak could be earlier or later.

Image

#2 I'll call the Techno-Cornucopia scenario. In this one us Cornucopians are correct, and technology unleashes vast amounts of resources (both physical and "intellectual"). I have once again randomly chosen a peak population of 20 billion which won't be arrived at until the year 2300. Also again, the timing and the size of the population could be different.

Image

#3 I'll call Cyber World. This is a "Beyond Cornucopia" scenario. In this scenario we begin to merge with our cybernetic creations and, in many cases, become fully cybernetic beings. Beings such as this would not even need food/agriculture - the only sustenance they need is electricity. A world filled with sentient beings who only need electricity to survive can support a huge population of such creatures. So, I have randomly chosen a peak population of 100 billion which would occur perhaps in the year 10,000. But once again, these are just random choices for illustration.

Image

Now, back to my other link with the metaphysical musing. In that little essay I said that humans were ultimately doomed. Notice that - even in my 2 Cornucopian scenarios above - I have also assumed the same thing. The curve of all 3 scenarios is the same, the only difference is the magnitude of the curve. Why did I assume this? Because, as I said in that other link, nothing lasts forever. That is, nothing can be "sustained" forever - not that old-growth forest I put at the top of page 5, not the lake outside my window, not the ducks in the lake - nothing. Neither will human beings (or their cybernetic descendants, if they have any).

You don't get it because by telling me "human population growth is not sustainable!" I reply by saying, "So what? Nothing is sustainable. If there were something that was truly sustainable, it could last forever. Since there is nothing that can last forever, nothing is truly sustainable."

At which point I'm sure someone will start to quibble over definitions.

Sustainability
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]1: capable of being sustained
2 a: of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged, b: of or relating to a lifestyle involving the use of sustainable methods

Regarding definition #1, I maintain that human agriculture can be sustained for thousands of years. Oh wait - it already has been. I also maintain that human population growth can be sustained for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. Oh wait - it already has been. Will they go on forever? No. But, neither does anything else.

Regarding definition #2, we have soils in Asia and Europe which have been under non-stop cultivation for thousands of years. This being the case, it is clear to me it isn't being "depleted" or "permanently damaged." Will this go on forever? No. Oh well. As for "depletion," yes we do use resources which are being depleted. Can this go on forever? Obviously not. How long can it go on? Nobody knows. Once we do start to get them pretty well depleted, there is always the sun (and uranium and deuterium). Can these last forever? No, not even the sun will not last forever. So what? It will last so long, we essentially don't need to ever worry about "running out" of it.

Where doomers see an impending wall of limits due to reliance on fossil fuels which (they believe/hope) will start running out soon without viable alternatives, I see plentiful supplies of fossil fuels remaining which can keep us going for quite a long time, after which we can transition to solar, wind, nuclear and other more "sustainable" energy sources. This does not mean human civilization can go on forever (it won't) but it can last a really long time. I fail to understand why so many environmentalist types are so big on trying to make human civilization "sustainable." Do they really think human civilization can and/or should last forever? If they don't, why do they bother?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 22:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')I fail to understand why so many environmentalist types are so big on trying to make human civilization "sustainable." Do they really think human civilization can and/or should last forever? If they don't, why do they bother?

Using my handy-dandy chart-making skills once again, here is what I mean.

Image

From everything I've read from the "sustainable" crowd, what they desire might look something like the above chart. Human population growth would stop sometime soon (others might want a decline of various sizes, but for illustration I'll just show a "stop now!" alternative). In addition to human population growth stopping, they would want everyone to choose "sustainable" lifestyles, etc etc. Ironically, if they are correct that modern technological civilization is "unsustainable," by abandoning that "unsustainable" lifestyle and adopting something more in tune with nature, they will enable human population to last that much longer.

For example, the curve beneath my middle scenario in the post above might contain a total of 100 billion people (just guessing, don't really know), but spread out over maybe 5,000-10,000 years.

The "Sustainability reached" scenario immediately above, due to its sustainable nature, probably also contains 100 billion people - but stretched out over maybe 50,000 years, or something like that.

What's the point? Is that what you really want? All you'll end up doing is spreading the same amount of impact over a longer period of time. And ultimately, neither scenario is any more "sustainable" than the other. All you're doing is trading off different things.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 23:08:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')our faux cynicism is quite irritating. :mrgreen: and it certainly doesn't jive with your Christian exceptionalism.

Your faux guesses are quite irritating. There is nothing cynical about what I said. Do you deny that everything is ultimately doomed? Acknowledging that everything is ultimately doomed is rather realistic, not "cynical."

Oh yeah - and acknowledging that everything is ultimately doomed is hardly "Christian," and is certainly not portraying anything as "exceptional:" :roll:

Another failed ignorant snark by p4brains. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 23:18:31

p4brains I am so sorry these big-picture, long-term, deep philosophical discussions are over your head. Maybe if you put down that beer and sobered up you might have a slight chance of comprehending it. With the emphasis on "slight."
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 17:02:25

OF2 thanks for your 'ideas'. The point is by linking the 2 graphs in the way you did, you implied that there would be a massive drop in population in a related timescale. Your philosophical musings, don't answer that point.

I realise it was probably a mistake on your part. Why don;t you just admit it instead of dodging the issue and risking 'spoiling' your argument.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 19:48:34

Ahem.... Gentlemen, attack ideas, not fellow posters. Thank you.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 07 Jul 2009, 20:36:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'O')F2 thanks for your 'ideas'. The point is by linking the 2 graphs in the way you did, you implied that there would be a massive drop in population in a related timescale. Your philosophical musings, don't answer that point.

When I replied to mos's post at the bottom of page 4, I never said anything about a time scale, did I.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') realise it was probably a mistake on your part. Why don;t you just admit it instead of dodging the issue and risking 'spoiling' your argument.

See reply above.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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