by DantesPeak » Mon 29 Jun 2009, 21:30:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')f I may offer an alternative explanation: I think the Saudis are saying here that they need $70 oil to run their economy. I don't think the marginal cost of newly reworked fields is yet anyway near $70, but maybe $30 to $40, but that's just a WAG.
The article states
"OPEC estimates that $75 a barrel oil is needed for oil exploration and production to become profitable."Strictly speaking, this is not a "breakeven" figure based on marginal cost of extracting and producing oil, because it also includes exploration for new oil.
But the reality is that the low hanging fruit is gone, and, now that we've crossed the peak, the high-hanging fruit will become increasingly expensive to extract, ... and breakeven will reach $75 soon enough.
I agree, and in addition, they proably don't want to start something new when prices are about their marginal cost. My wild guess is that they may want to see $100 oil to start up projects in the $75 marginal cost range.