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Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 29 Jun 2009, 21:27:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')f I may offer an alternative explanation: I think the Saudis are saying here that they need $70 oil to run their economy. I don't think the marginal cost of newly reworked fields is yet anyway near $70, but maybe $30 to $40, but that's just a WAG.


The article states "OPEC estimates that $75 a barrel oil is needed for oil exploration and production to become profitable."

Strictly speaking, this is not a "breakeven" figure based on marginal cost of extracting and producing oil, because it also includes exploration for new oil.

But the reality is that the low hanging fruit is gone, and, now that we've crossed the peak, the high-hanging fruit will become increasingly expensive to extract, ... and breakeven will reach $75 soon enough.
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Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 29 Jun 2009, 21:30:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')f I may offer an alternative explanation: I think the Saudis are saying here that they need $70 oil to run their economy. I don't think the marginal cost of newly reworked fields is yet anyway near $70, but maybe $30 to $40, but that's just a WAG.


The article states "OPEC estimates that $75 a barrel oil is needed for oil exploration and production to become profitable."

Strictly speaking, this is not a "breakeven" figure based on marginal cost of extracting and producing oil, because it also includes exploration for new oil.

But the reality is that the low hanging fruit is gone, and, now that we've crossed the peak, the high-hanging fruit will become increasingly expensive to extract, ... and breakeven will reach $75 soon enough.



I agree, and in addition, they proably don't want to start something new when prices are about their marginal cost. My wild guess is that they may want to see $100 oil to start up projects in the $75 marginal cost range.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby americandream » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 00:22:21

So what we are looking at then is a combination of Saudi fiscal needs as well as an increasingly expensive (cost wise) trading stock? If so, whats the consensus on what portion of the desired premium is trading stock related?
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Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby bodigami » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 13:43:25

correction: $67 ...artificially pegged. :twisted: :) :lol:
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Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 14:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')common sense tells me that oil inventory is most probably behind the global economies difficulties at the moment.


How can it be common sense if it disregards this?

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Re: Why Is Oil At $70.00 US

Unread postby americandream » Tue 30 Jun 2009, 16:41:02

Mos

Have you ever wondered how severe the reset costing issues might have been for many of these families experiencing mortgage issues had oil prices not taken that significant hike they have these past past 4 years or so (along with the other inflationary impacts elsewhere in the economy)?

Whilst I don't disregard the sheer lack of business sense in the Islamic world with its convoluted notion of capitalism (and consequently wouldn't put it past them to balls up big time by squeezing their market out of sheer greed), methinks alls not well under the desert sands of the Arab Peninsula.
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