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THE Let the worldwide layoffs begin Thread pt 2 (merged)

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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 26 Jun 2009, 21:58:22

Compare to initial unemployment claims.

Image

And continuing claims.

Image

Fairly similar pictures.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby kmann » Fri 26 Jun 2009, 22:17:57

The guy who wrote the article ignores the fact that employment is a lagging indicator. Or maybe he just doesn't know. Anyway I didn't read the whole thing, he lost me after the first misleading paragraph. Another doomster cherry-picking data. Just give me facts and let me make up my own mind.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby AirlinePilot » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 01:13:36

At some point UE will become a Leading indicator. Thats not in dispute. We'll reach a tipping point in which the UE numbers start affecting the economic numbers. Some say we may be near it now. I'm not so sure. I believe UE will have to go north of 12% before this happens. There is no hard data to suggest there is trend reversal yet. We need to see a significant positive shift in the new jobless numbes for a much longer period and at least move far closer to net jobless numbers recovering from the declines. That hasnt happened yet.

Calling small trend shifts bottoming currently is a dangerous assumption.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby eastbay » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 02:40:15

All the continuing claims graph reveals is that people who've been riffed during the previous 6 to 9 months have bled their UE benefits dry. And are no longer collecting.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby deMolay » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 09:02:42

The Gubmint wouldn't lie, I don't know what came over me thinking that way? http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index ... Itemid=102
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby cbxer55 » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 11:11:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')ll the continuing claims graph reveals is that people who've been riffed during the previous 6 to 9 months have bled their UE benefits dry. And are no longer collecting.


I am one of them, just got my last unemployment deposit this week. Now get to go through the process of getting federal extended benefits. So my expired initial benefits takes one off of the conitnued claims statistic. But adds one to those receiving emergency benefits.

Fortunately my wife landed a good job about two months ago, making more than she has made since 1994. We'll stay afloat just due to that.

Even though the jobless rate in Oklahoma is only 6.3%, just you try and find a job here. There are none to be had. All the energy companies are either shut down, or cut way back. All the local trucking companies have hiring freezes. Plenty of vacant property where a business once resided.

Chesapeake Energy is laying off 500 people from their downtown Oklahoma City office. Motorcraft recently lost a Honda contract and is laying off 1/3 of their employees, do not know how many that means number wise though.

So far, everyone that got layed off when I did is still unemployed. Two of them had jobs for a short time, but they have recently gotten layed off again. They are now in the sam boat as the rest of us. You send out resumes, fill out applictaions, never hear anything back from the company.

YUP, Green Shoots is all I can see from here on out!
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby Armageddon » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 11:15:15

The unemployment numbers are going to continue to climb. Ask yourself, who is going to hire all these people ? The answer , nobody. The artificial housing boom is over and those millions of jobs are gone. The US consumer is maxed and credit will continue will be tightened. Without lending, the game is over.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby kmann » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 12:38:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')t some point UE will become a Leading indicator. Thats not in dispute. We'll reach a tipping point in which the UE numbers start affecting the economic numbers. Some say we may be near it now. I'm not so sure. I believe UE will have to go north of 12% before this happens. There is no hard data to suggest there is trend reversal yet. We need to see a significant positive shift in the new jobless numbes for a much longer period and at least move far closer to net jobless numbers recovering from the declines. That hasnt happened yet.

Calling small trend shifts bottoming currently is a dangerous assumption.

I don't disagree with anything here. If UE does become leading and exceeds 12%, that's when a recession becomes a depression. The current improvement is a small trend shift, but a trend shift it is. From where we're at now it could get worse, get better, or stay the same. I'm looking for clues to find out which is most likely.
For it to get better, initial claims need to continue dropping (not like this past week when there was a slight uptick), and drop below 450k or so per week before the summer is over. Unemployment rate needs to halt at around 10%(or sooner). The green shoots need to grow into green plants - and sooner not later.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby DantesPeak » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 13:27:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')ll the continuing claims graph reveals is that people who've been riffed during the previous 6 to 9 months have bled their UE benefits dry. And are no longer collecting.



It's also my understanding that many auto workers were already receiving unemployment benefits, and therefore the bankruptcies of Chysler and GM will not appear as a spike in the weekly figures.

However I believe you will see a continued increases in net job losses monthly for the next two months, with little or no improvement over June's report, as a result of auto bankruptcies.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby 3aidlillahi » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 13:29:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')It's also my understanding that many auto workers were already receiving unemployment benefits, and therefore the bankruptcies of Chysler and GM will not appear as a spike in the weekly figures.


As those companies are restructured and the plants open once again (they are closed now, right?), wouldn't that result in lower UE benefit claims?
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby nobodypanic » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 14:11:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')t some point UE will become a Leading indicator. Thats not in dispute. We'll reach a tipping point in which the UE numbers start affecting the economic numbers. Some say we may be near it now. I'm not so sure. I believe UE will have to go north of 12% before this happens. There is no hard data to suggest there is trend reversal yet. We need to see a significant positive shift in the new jobless numbes for a much longer period and at least move far closer to net jobless numbers recovering from the declines. That hasnt happened yet.

Calling small trend shifts bottoming currently is a dangerous assumption.

I don't disagree with anything here. If UE does become leading and exceeds 12%, that's when a recession becomes a depression. The current improvement is a small trend shift, but a trend shift it is. From where we're at now it could get worse, get better, or stay the same. I'm looking for clues to find out which is most likely.
For it to get better, initial claims need to continue dropping (not like this past week when there was a slight uptick), and drop below 450k or so per week before the summer is over. Unemployment rate needs to halt at around 10%(or sooner). The green shoots need to grow into green plants - and sooner not later.

the official numbers are baloney. check the SGS-alternate at shadow stats and you'll see that unemployment is pushing past 20%.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby ColossalContrarian » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 15:15:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')the official numbers are baloney. check the SGS-alternate at shadow stats and you'll see that unemployment is pushing past 20%.


Here you go -> Image
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 16:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'N')ot a pretty picture. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/40738 ... ecord-high

deMolay, since it seems to have escaped you, it doesn't look particularly good on your part to accuse the government of lying about unemployment stats by turning around and citing mass layoff numbers - numbers which also come from the "Gubmint."
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby deMolay » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 17:10:05

Oilfinder, it doesn't look good for you my little Cornie, that of all the stats posted and graphs and bars etc, that you haven't been able to grasp that Gubmint has been manipulating their own stats. Kind of like yourself. Now I would never call you a liar. But you do seem to have a knack for telling the truth to suit your own purpose.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby Armageddon » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 17:21:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'O')ilfinder, it doesn't look good for you my little Cornie, that of all the stats posted and graphs and bars etc, that you haven't been able to grasp that Gubmint has been manipulating their own stats. Kind of like yourself. Now I would never call you a liar. But you do seem to have a knack for telling the truth to suit your own purpose.




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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 17:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', ' ')that you haven't been able to grasp that Gubmint has been manipulating their own stats.

OK then, the government stats you posted about mass layoffs are also manipulated! :lol:

It's almost unreal how it escapes you the irony of this. It's like this:

deMolay: The government is lying.
OF2: How do you know?
deMolay: Because they say so.
OF2: If you say the government is lying, then how do you know they aren't also lying when they tell you they're lying?
deMolay: *silence* *retorts with ad hominen attack*

:lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby DantesPeak » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 18:05:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')It's also my understanding that many auto workers were already receiving unemployment benefits, and therefore the bankruptcies of Chysler and GM will not appear as a spike in the weekly figures.


As those companies are restructured and the plants open once again (they are closed now, right?), wouldn't that result in lower UE benefit claims?


Yes we could see a drop in new unemployment claims when they are discharged from bankruptcy, but that will only help the monthly unemployment rate a small amount.

I also said elsewhere here that we may see a one or two month improvement inunemployment later in the year, bus basically I see monthly unemployment higher at the end of 3 rd quarter (than the 2 nd), and higher still at the end of the 4 th.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby kmann » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 18:46:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')t some point UE will become a Leading indicator. Thats not in dispute. We'll reach a tipping point in which the UE numbers start affecting the economic numbers. Some say we may be near it now. I'm not so sure. I believe UE will have to go north of 12% before this happens. There is no hard data to suggest there is trend reversal yet. We need to see a significant positive shift in the new jobless numbes for a much longer period and at least move far closer to net jobless numbers recovering from the declines. That hasnt happened yet.

Calling small trend shifts bottoming currently is a dangerous assumption.

I don't disagree with anything here. If UE does become leading and exceeds 12%, that's when a recession becomes a depression. The current improvement is a small trend shift, but a trend shift it is. From where we're at now it could get worse, get better, or stay the same. I'm looking for clues to find out which is most likely.
For it to get better, initial claims need to continue dropping (not like this past week when there was a slight uptick), and drop below 450k or so per week before the summer is over. Unemployment rate needs to halt at around 10%(or sooner). The green shoots need to grow into green plants - and sooner not later.

the official numbers are baloney. check the SGS-alternate at shadow stats and you'll see that unemployment is pushing past 20%.

You can believe what you want. If you believe the govt is lying - it's not my job to change your mind. I don't (believe they're lying), I think the statistics they put out are most likely genuine. I'll take them at face value until I have evidence otherwise.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby shortonoil » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 19:41:18

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es we could see a drop in new unemployment claims when they are discharged from bankruptcy, but that will only help the monthly unemployment rate a small amount.

I also said elsewhere that we may see a one or two month improvement in unemployment later in the year, bus basically I see monthly unemployment higher at the end of 3 rd quarter (than the 2 nd), and higher still at the end of the 4 th.


We are likely to see a drop in unemployment sometime this year, which will occur before it again starts to escalate in 2010. Projections from the AvailableEnergy model give unemployment levels bottoming at 485,000 a month. Of course the model has problems here in as much that it is basing its estimates from GDP projections. The timing factor between changing GDP and changing employment has to pretty much be guessed at.


In September many unemployed will begin ending their benefit period and be permanently removed from the unemployment rolls. This will help the numbers, and not do much for those who will then have no income. This could be tracked through food stamp and welfare programs if someone had the ambition.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he World Bank predicted Monday that the global economy will shrink 2.9%, a deeper fall than the 1.7% contraction it predicted in March. It also warned that international capital to developing nations will continue to slow, with flows projected to fall to $363 billion in 2009 from their peak of $1.2 trillion in 2007. The world has entered an era of slower growth that will require tighter and more effective oversight of the financial system, the bank said in a statement.


Some of the money that has been going to developing nations could find its way back into the US to produce a few jobs here for a while. With the exception of a brief hiatus now an again, however, unemployment will continue to worsen for a very long time.

The model predicts 16 years.
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Re: US Layoffs At Record High Gubmint Lying

Postby jasonraymondson » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:59:29

Yes, we are heading into a depression. No, it will not last forever. Stop being doomers. Smile, relax, and enjoy the sun.... well the sun is gone here... :oops:
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