by DantesPeak » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 13:24:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')With better than $60 trillion in bond debt now floating in the US, monetary formation through credit creation is now falling short on the order of $1 trillion to service that debt. To keep the system from entering a stage of massive cascading defaults the FED must now inject that shortfall directly through monetization.
When the FED monetizes they buy assets forcing their price upward. This produces the effect of driving the returns on these assets downward. This results in a reduction of value for all other asset classes, driving their returns upward. Interest rates increase.
As there is now insufficient credit origination to create the funds to service the debt that already exists, the FED is being forced to monetize to create those funds. These monetized funds are now reducing asset values with the reversed leverage which is built into the fractional reserve banking system. That is, asset values are now being reduced at a rate equal to the monetized debt times the fractional reserve leverage rate.
With reserve limits now about 5%, (probably a lot less), that ratio is at least 20:1. Each $1 trillion monetized is now destroying 20 in asset values.
Very well put.
I said a year ago the Fed can, and will, produce $trillions in new fiat money. At the time that idea seemed far fetched even to doomers at PO.com. But now I wonder – just how many trillions $s will the Fed will ‘print’ up before it calls it quits, because interest rates will rise along with amount of new Fed money created (although with some lag time).
Higher interest rates will cause most intangible and tangible assets (except natural resources and food) to have their value discounted, and thus be further ‘deflated’. However despite continued weakness in asset prices, particularly for housing, the net overall cost of living will increase only faster. This will occur even while incomes drop through unemployment – as government spending will, at least in the near term, overcome that and increase faster than the income drop.
Luckily for us this process hasn’t yet gained too much momentum, but as we fall further down the slope of oil availability, it will.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.