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Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Unread postby Enquest » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 09:50:40

How much barrels would U.S.A an the EU save if they would regulate it. I mean if they would go in save mode by banning due high taxes SUV's and other oil draining machines.

Would that bring oil need of the world to 60mil barels a day or even less. And how long would it then be before the decline of production would hit 60 mil barrels a day. 20 to 30 years more?

Would not be the case?
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 10:47:05

yes, probably. it will have to happen if they want to maintain a government. all this crazy talk about there 'being no USA in 10 years' is total and absolute crap. with lots of regulation, and fuel used for emergencies only, the UK/USA/EU etc. can likely keep going on for decades using oil for important things.

However, it wont be like life is now, with wanton waste and being able to drive anywhere you want. It will probably be like what it was in the UK with rationing in WWII. Life went on pretty much as normal during WWII (even when bombs were dropping on us), but people were forced to eat FAR less. There was little fresh fruit around, not much sugar, little alcohol, chocolate etc. The UK still got by though.

Yes, the economy suffered, but the economy suffering and a recession isnt the end of the world. People need to get this into their heads - a massive recession/depression doesnt mean the end of society - nothing like it. In fact, the very opposite may happen - people work closer together and develop a sense of community again, and the people rally round the government.

I really think people predicting a big crash and mad max scenarios have been watching too many films and reading die-off too much.
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 11:43:33

The free world banded together in WW1 in order to fight a war of survival. The coming oil wars may be wars of survival, but they won't instill the same brotherhood of man ideal.

That war was fought using the trillons of dollars in debt. We are still paying off debt from WW2. I don't think the US can afford to fight a war like that. The economy would dissolve if we went from producing dishwashers...I mean, tax accountants to producing tanks. We don't have the industrial capacity to build our military up like we did in WW2.

Our society was set up much differently. No suburbs, mostly factory workers and farmers, higher savings rate, net creditor to the world, net exporter of goods, and we had a much more homogenous culture.

I could go on, but I think I've "won" the debate.
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Unread postby RiverRat » Fri 22 Apr 2005, 12:18:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')However, it wont be like life is now, with wanton waste and being able to drive anywhere you want. It will probably be like what it was in the UK with rationing in WWII. Life went on pretty much as normal during WWII (even when bombs were dropping on us), but people were forced to eat FAR less. There was little fresh fruit around, not much sugar, little alcohol, chocolate etc. The UK still got by though.
I really think people predicting a big crash and mad max scenarios have been watching too many films and reading die-off too much.


I think a key point to focus on here is … people will adapt in a paradigm were they can recognize that the future will be better and brighter.

I don’t think people in Europe during WWII would have accepted their lifestyles if it was a forgone conclusion that it would be a permanent state.

Unfortunately, the ramifications of PO could potentially be a permanent state. If the human race (especially industrialized nations) was forced to revert to a lifestyle circa 1800 and viewed it as permanent, I shudder to think of the consequences.

Sure … after a few generations in relative terms it would be normal, but the time preceding would be wrought with strife.
If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
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