[Colorado-Valley]

I posted this on my Lord-of-the-Rings discussion board, with interesting results:

"Tolkien's prophesy seems to be becoming true. The great resource wars have already begun, but probably too late for countries like the U.S. and Western Europe, whose economies are based on cheap oil and third-world imperialism to keep resources flowing to them.

"The big resource, the one that makes all the others possible, is oil. And oil seems to be disappearing fast. You can argue if you want, or propose whatever kind of alternative fuel you want to base your misplaced optimism on, but none will work, at least if you want conventional industrial society, which of course we all do. But 6.5 billion people trying to live on the last of the oil is simply not going to work.

"The U.S. is bankrupt. It has spent the last of its resources propping up the wealth class and attempting to control the Middle East by brute force. Its army is trapped in Iraq, being bombed and attacked 60 times a day, and its "allies," the Shiites, are holding 300,000 -strong rallies demanding the occupiers leave. This cannot last, and everyone who looks beyond the U.S. corporate media fairy tales knows exactly what has happened.

"The U.S. stock market -- because of the rising cost of oil -- has fallen about 900 points over the last month, 400 points in the last three days. The U.S. is now $8 trillion in debt, piling up huge deficits every year. Ford and General Motors are in danger of collapsing, the housing bubble is about where the tech bubble was a few years ago before it crashed. Americans personally are heavily in debt, and using up the equity in their homes to continue to finance "the American lifestyle."

"President Bush is giving a speech this week about energy and conservation. What's he going to do, wear a sweater like Jimmy Carter and tell us to turn our thermostats down two degrees? He and Cheney have been tellling us for the past four years that "the American Lifestyle is non-negotiable."

"It doesn't matter to me, since I've never been a fan of an "affluent" lifestyle that just means death and misery for the rest of the world and long-term destruction of our basic natural resources, like clean water, forests, rivers, coral reefs and a million other things crucial to life on this planet.

"But there's a quandary. Without billions of barrels of cheap oil, 6.5 billion people can not come close to feeding themselves. It's called population overshoot, and was only possible because inexpensive oil made it possible to turn worn-out soil into a rich growing medium injected with petro-chemical fertilizers and pesticides. It allowed giant tractors do the work of millions of slaves or serfs.

"This is all coming to an end, one way or the other. We, fellow ringnuts, have been blessed to live in the time of the end of all things -- at least in the industrial sense. The world as we knew it is about to get "very interesting."

"My ideal would be Tolkien's -- to somehow powerdown into a million little Shires where people live a much different, but still satisfying life. A basically healthy life, in which nature is cared for and considered an ally. The winners would be people who live on small farms and do craftman-type trades.

"The alternative, of course, is that of Sauron. Horrible resource wars that blacken the landscape and lead to death and destruction on a grand scale as the military-industrial state tries to grab the last drops of oil, and then turns to enslavement and serfdom to try to preserve its power in a post-industrial landscape. You would not get to be a small farmer; you would become agricultural stoop labor in some vast corporate farm. Something not unlike a gulag.

"So right now all of us are staring into Galadriel's mirror. I don't like what I see. How about you?"

[UIUCstudent01]

I'm a sorta half-fan. I read The Hobbit, but none of the other books and got synopsis of the other books from other people (before the movies went into production). I would love to see the reaction to this, that is, to people who love the story - it won't be effective at all to others.

I would love to see the more interesting responses...

[Jack]

Very nice essay. Please accept my compliments.

[BigBear]

Well done C-V....as a P.S. to your story it may be interesting to those that do not know ... Tolkein was a veteren of WW1 and his son, who completed the Trilogy was a veteren of WW2. If you understand the full histories of both those wars--the world before and the world after them..you can see fully the meaning and message Tolkein was trying to get across to his readers. The Trilogy is a proper anolgy of where the world sits today and what future is most likely to be the fate of all us Hobbits that are now living thru these times and the events that lie before us.

[skiwi]

Yes nice post. Have you seen the reedited version of Lord of the Rings
It's no. #4

[seahorse]

"The world is changing . . . I feel it in the earth, the wind, the water"

[slick50]

Great post! I have been hooked on Tolkien for 15 years and more so since the movies were produced. I yearn for a simplier Shire type life, but how are we going to get there? Peak Oil is going to devastate the economy, there is no getting around that. I have 3 kids and 3 grandkids, enough said. Not a day goes by that I don't think about the implications of Peak Oil. Sometimes, like Frodo, I wish I had never came into this knowledge, it's consumed my entire existence. But that's just the way things are.

Thanks again C.V.!!

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Some of us will choose a more elven approach. They are armed, and spend time building allies in the worlds of men. but they jealously guard their homes which is why no one had lived to tell of the lady of the wood, Galadriel.

while their version may not have their magic pre se they might be able to fashion types of technology that would almost seem magic to the shire folk who turn their back on all that stuff.

excellent post!

[Carrie]

This probably wasn't in the original books, but I still liked this quote from the movie:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rodo: I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.
Gandalf: So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I'm almost totally certain it was in the books actually. So was the saying by Frodo's uncle that went: "Its a dangerous business Frodo, going out your door, you step onto the road and if you don't kick your feet there's no knowing where you might be swept off to."

but there are so many weightly passages in those books.

[madison]

Wonderful post!

Personally I'm feeling a bit like the Rohirrim... getting my ass whooped but stubbornly hanging in there because it's the right thing to do.

[Colorado-Valley]

Okay, here's one response from the board, which is divided between the "don't tell us about Armagedden" to "get the word out!"

"But the question is whether we are willing to adapt. All Colorado-Valley is trying to do is to shake us out of our complacency and make us realize we need to adapt to the changing circumstances of the world if we want to survive. But change is usually painful and needs great effort. It's not going to happen just automatically. Every society on earth that has refused to adapt to changing circumstances, but stuck firm with their "We've always done it this way and it's worked in the past" attitude has gone by the wayside.

History is replete with examples of societies that have held on to their familiar lifestyles at the ultimate cost of their existence. It is not "doomsday speak" to try to jolt people into making a commitment to change and adapt. What's particularly sad is that every statistic of what we have to do to reverse the trends C.V. is writing of wouldn't take THAT much sacrifice on our parts. (I've heard one that a mere 20% energy conservation from Americans would free us entirely of Middle East oil.)

"But because it doesn't make people feel good (and of course, feeling good is the greatest virtue these day, isn't it?) to be told the kind of stuff C.V. writes, they don't want to hear it and refuse to make even the smallest changes that would save the human race. Politicians know this and are scared to suggest even the smallest sacrifices without couching it in terms of some immediate gain to their constituents.

"We have no leadership to inspire us to change and adapt in this regard. I, for one, think Colorado Valley's message should be blasted daily on every news show and paper until people finally get it and pressure our leaders to take dramatic steps."

[RickTaylor]

I've only become aware how big the peak-oil issue is in the last couple weeks. This quotation from Tolkien's the Lord of the Rings has been on my mind:


... "I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such
times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide
is what to do with the time that is given, us. And already,
Frodo, our time is beginning to look black..."


--Rick

[MicroHydro]

Yes, several of my friends and family have been talking about current events in terms of LOTR for years. My personal solution is to get my family - especially those of draft age - established in a Elven setting outside the US ASAP. But it is not easy to emigrate. Hopefully the paperwork and red tape will be finished in 2005.

Unfortunately, for much of the population of the world, it will be like Mordor. Alberta and Wyoming will be Mordor for sure.

After the oil and minerals are gone, and the colonial powers leave, and the AIDS and famine dieoffs are complete, Africa might eventually emerge better off. Life in Europe was improved by the plague dieoff.

[chargrove]

Colorado, can you post a link to the LOTR board?

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '
')Unfortunately, for much of the population of the world, it will be like Mordor. Alberta and Wyoming will be Mordor for sure.

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigBear', 'T')olkein was a veteren of WW1 and his son, who completed the Trilogy was a veteren of WW2.

[Colorado-Valley]

I built a Frank-Lloyd-Wright -style Rivendell house, completely with Cherokee-red floor heated with off-peak wind power. Native wood and stone. Picture windows toward the West Elks.

If Tolkien had been an Western rancher, I think he would have envisioned this kind of house.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', '.')...

"The U.S. is bankrupt. It has spent the last of its resources propping up the wealth class and attempting to control the Middle East by brute force. Its army is trapped in Iraq, being bombed and attacked 60 times a day, and its "allies," the Shiites, are holding 300,000 -strong rallies demanding the occupiers leave. This cannot last, and everyone who looks beyond the U.S. corporate media fairy tales knows exactly what has happened.

......