[27010]

I dont think any of the topics mentioned are canaries of peak oil, they are victims of high oil prices, which is not the same thing.

I have in previous posts (not that many) that I thought peak oil is here right now or past, however I have changed my mind and now believe it is almost here but not just yet, "it is so close that you can smell it."

This brings me on to my canary and it will also demonstrate that peak oil will arrive on a specific date that can be identified. So far we have seen ups and downs of oil prices because the market thinks there may be a shortage, but it doesnt happen so prices retreat, only to increase again soon afterwards as worries re-surface. This proves that peak oil is very very close.

My canary will therefore be that shortage of supply, the day that someone doesn't get, be it petrol for cars, aviation fuel, whatever.

This will be the date peak oil is here and the canary is dead.

[RobintheDruid]

You mean, say in September then? At the moment in the UK the Chancellor has delayed increases in fuel tax duty for six months because of the election, which takes place on May 5th. But the Road Hauliers Association already know whats coming, they're starting to warn about it, even locally, two weeks ago when a representative from the neighbouring town to me put a letter in the local paper stating exactly, in no uncertain terms, whats on the horizon. So soon, we can expect fuel prices to go up, followed by a fuel strike by all the truck drivers, as in 2000-1 and queues at petrol stations.

In 2000-1, although I was a self-employed gardener then, I wasn't driving, I was cycling around carrying my tools in my rucksack. So apart from the fact that I am also an environmentalist, I didn't notice the strike.

But I have a small van now, so this time I will, and it will finish off my business because given the choice between fuel and employing a gardener, people will choose fuel.

Having said that, I have, literally just this minute, decided to close my business down and go back to being employed. Its stressful enough at the minute, but when fuel prices go up, trying to keep my business going will just be murder.

I think PO is already here, but we're only just beginning to see the effects of that, and only a few of us at that.

[clv101]

A agree that high prices can arise as a result of supply not meeting demand, also that this can occurs without 'peak oil'. It is possible for demand to increase at 2% pa for ten years and supply to only increase at 1% pa for those ten years. No peak but elevated prices.

I think peak production is soon - before the end of the decade but not today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('27010', 'M')y canary will therefore be that shortage of supply, the day that someone doesn't get, be it petrol for cars, aviation fuel, whatever.

[27010]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'A') agree that high prices can arise as a result of supply not meeting demand, also that this can occurs without 'peak oil'. It is possible for demand to increase at 2% pa for ten years and supply to only increase at 1% pa for those ten years. No peak but elevated prices.

I think peak production is soon - before the end of the decade but not today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('27010', 'M')y canary will therefore be that shortage of supply, the day that someone doesn't get, be it petrol for cars, aviation fuel, whatever.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('27010', 'N')ot being able to afford oil is not the same as not being able to get it because there is nothing to have.

If I walk into a shop with 20pence in my pocket wanting to but a 40 pence bar of chocolate I am not going to get it,. This is not because of a shortage, it is because I am skint.

If, however I walk in to a shop with 40 pence in my pocket and there is no chocolate on the shelf because "peak chocolate" has arrived, this is different problem.

[MicroHydro]

Peak oil will have been fully recognized when oil future contracts are more expensive than spot oil. At the present time, oil for 2011 is selling for less than oil for today. This is called backwardation and indicates that the markets believe that oil will be cheaper 6 years from now than it is today.

It might be true that peak oil will happen this decade, but the big money traders are not convinced.