PeakOil is You
The End of the Days of Denial
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The End of the Days of Denial
by MarkL » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 17:25:24
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
Last edited by MarkL on Sat 25 Aug 2007, 14:32:19, edited 1 time in total.
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MarkL - Expert
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by Guest » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 17:38:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
No doubt, you'll hear all kinds of post hoc certainties issuing from the econopundits.
Science (eg peak oil theory) makes predictions, which can be falsified. Pseudoscience (ie economic theory) makes after-the-fact "postdictions" which can never be falsified.
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by killJOY » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 17:42:23
Quote:
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
No doubt, you'll hear all kinds of post hoc certainties issuing from the econopundits.
Science (eg peak oil theory) makes predictions, which can be falsified. Pseudoscience (ie economic theory) makes after-the-fact "postdictions" which can never be falsified.
[That was me. I didn't realize I was logged out. I thought the Guest feature was discontinued?]
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
No doubt, you'll hear all kinds of post hoc certainties issuing from the econopundits.
Science (eg peak oil theory) makes predictions, which can be falsified. Pseudoscience (ie economic theory) makes after-the-fact "postdictions" which can never be falsified.
[That was me. I didn't realize I was logged out. I thought the Guest feature was discontinued?]
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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killJOY - Intermediate Crude
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by arretium » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 17:59:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'Q')uote:
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
No doubt, you'll hear all kinds of post hoc certainties issuing from the econopundits.
Science (eg peak oil theory) makes predictions, which can be falsified. Pseudoscience (ie economic theory) makes after-the-fact "postdictions" which can never be falsified.
[That was me. I didn't realize I was logged out. I thought the Guest feature was discontinued?]
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
No doubt, you'll hear all kinds of post hoc certainties issuing from the econopundits.
Science (eg peak oil theory) makes predictions, which can be falsified. Pseudoscience (ie economic theory) makes after-the-fact "postdictions" which can never be falsified.
[That was me. I didn't realize I was logged out. I thought the Guest feature was discontinued?]
While I don't know if I entirely agree with you killJOY, you do have a point and it is noted.
I noticed markets were up 2% as well. I attribute this to the more lets rally around the good news. This stuff happens. Markets go up and down. They are not a straight line.
Forget about peak oil, our economy is in serious trouble. There are just too many fundamental problems here, including, but not limited to: real estate bubble, federal Budget deficit, current account deficit, inflation, dollar devaluation, price of oil (at current levels), drop in demand for SUVs . To some degree, everything here is linked, but the same token, you and I are brothers (or brother and sister).
Don't get overly excited or worried (if you want the world to fall apart), the U.S. economy is heading for a disaster right now. And it's finally starting to get some small play in the MSM.
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arretium - Coal
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by killJOY » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 18:23:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile I don't know if I entirely agree with you killJOY, you do have a point and it is noted.
I admit: my comment comes out of a lot of ignorance. I can't make heads nor tails of economic theory, just as I couldn't deal with literary theory. I've read a lot of criticisms ABOUT economics--on the order of what I noted earlier, and I want to learn more.Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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killJOY - Intermediate Crude
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by MicroHydro » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 18:36:55
There are no limits to how crazy people have to get before they sober up.
In Los Gatos, California, people are buying 12 foot wide "modular" townhomes (essentially trailers without the yard) for $800,000. I thought the stupidity was maxed out a few years ago when a 500 square foot converted chicken coop was sold as a house for $600,000. But there were greater fools around than I could have ever imagined.
In Los Gatos, California, people are buying 12 foot wide "modular" townhomes (essentially trailers without the yard) for $800,000. I thought the stupidity was maxed out a few years ago when a 500 square foot converted chicken coop was sold as a house for $600,000. But there were greater fools around than I could have ever imagined.
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by hull3551 » Thu 21 Apr 2005, 18:45:13
I think the markets are still horrible overvalued in spite of the recent lackluster performance (over the past five years).
Companies historically traded on their historical earnings. The historical price/earnings (P/E) of companies ranged in the mid-teens for large-cap companies. Presently, the markets trade upon future earnings, which not only adds volatility to the overall market, but also builds in an implicit overvaluations, as traditionally earnings have increased year-over-year. Considering the S&P closed at a P/E of 19.0 today, it’s safe to say that stocks are still overvalued and ever so sensitive to any negative earnings reports.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'Q')uote:
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
Companies historically traded on their historical earnings. The historical price/earnings (P/E) of companies ranged in the mid-teens for large-cap companies. Presently, the markets trade upon future earnings, which not only adds volatility to the overall market, but also builds in an implicit overvaluations, as traditionally earnings have increased year-over-year. Considering the S&P closed at a P/E of 19.0 today, it’s safe to say that stocks are still overvalued and ever so sensitive to any negative earnings reports.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'Q')uote:
Anyone have a reasonable explanation for why the Dow and S&P 500 are up 2% and nasdaq up 2.5% today?
Because of the sheer volume of trading coupled with a herd mentality, the markets have a tendency to overreact. Today’s bounce was partially attributable to _____________ (insert phrase of the day here), but also because of the past weeks reaction to dismal earnings, inflation fears, etc.
I firmly believe that with lackluster market performance going forward (which is a safe bet), we will see adverse impacts on the economy, as boomers will stay in the work force longer - unable to retire because of lack of $$$$ and their propensity to consume. This will exacerbate underemployment of younger workers (such as myself). And a litany of other factors. Oh, and then there’s PO.
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