PeakOil is You
An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by mattduke » Thu 28 May 2009, 22:45:28
Given the US import situation, when the dollar crashes the US will skip the first, easy parts of the downslope and fast forward to the more interesting parts.
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mattduke - Intermediate Crude
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Sixstrings » Thu 28 May 2009, 22:59:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')You're right, what I'm really questioning here is the "Doom" factor of peak oil. I feel confident from what I've learned up to now that a peak on heavy crude is not a concern within my lifetime.
Then you are reading trash. The EROEI, cost and flow rate of heavy crude comes nowhere near light sweet crude in price or production rate.
Light sweet crude was the low hanging fruit. You now need a ladder.
Connect the dots.
Ok, so we need a ladder. The industrialized world has needed ladders before, you know. Heck, in WWII didn't the Germans make gasoline from COAL for crying out loud? If a world war can be fought despite a severe shortage of access to petrol, why do you assume the world will crumble in the face of post peak crisis?
And as for coal, I think it was Mos that mentioned in this thread "it's not an option" because of the pollution factor. I'm sorry, but if we end up facing down TETWAWKI, all those green concerns are gonna be thrown right under the bus.
EDIT: regarding the EROI of heavy crude.. a lot of the costs are due to environmental laws (extra processing for high sulfur content, etc.). If we throw all the green concerns out the window, wouldn't heavy crude refining get cheaper? Add to that, something that isn't done much is always expensive, and always gets cheaper when ramped up on a large scale.
Maybe gas from heavy crude has a low EROI simply because we're not doing much of it and we don't really need it -- we still have the light sweet after all.
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Sixstrings - Fusion
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by shortonsense » Thu 28 May 2009, 23:03:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')You're right, what I'm really questioning here is the "Doom" factor of peak oil. I feel confident from what I've learned up to now that a peak on heavy crude is not a concern within my lifetime.
Then you are reading trash. The EROEI, cost and flow rate of heavy crude comes nowhere near light sweet crude in price or production rate.
You should send out a memo to all people converting it into useable products, some of which you have undoubtedly used personally. Tell them that your biological experience demands they recognize your version of how science and EROEI works and stop doing what they've been doing longer than you've been alive just because you said so. Start with the Peoples Republik of Kalifornia, they've been producing heavy oil since before you were born.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Light sweet crude was the low hanging fruit. You now need a ladder.
Connect the dots.
People with actual degree's already have. They have decided that EROEI and light sweet crude are so critically important that using copious amounts of fresh water, natural gas, and strip mining the northern end of Alberta to steam sludge off of sand grains to make it is a perfectly reasonable and profitable thing to do.
Do you now want them to put the billions of barrels they have produced by now back?
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shortonsense - Permanently Banned
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