[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I think that about covers USGS peak oil dates.

[Sixstrings]

Another factor here is coal.. don't we have like 250 years supply of coal in the US? And then there's nuclear. If France can supply all it's electricity via nuclear, then we can too (if we had too).

So it seems to me that when major declines in light sweet become obvious, there will still be twice as much heavy crude in the ground, buying us at least another ten years which is time enough for us to enact major conservation measures and transition auto manufacturing over to electric.

We waste a lot oil right now, so you can't in fairness discount the fuel savings real conservation would bring. It would mean lifestyle changes for sure, like the end of the hour+ commute from suburbia. But how does that necessarily mean The End Of The World? Americans made it through WWII with very strict rationing, and yet society never fell apart. And a lot of jobs people don't really need to be commuting to in the first place, they can be done with telecommuting.

[TheAntiDoomer]

All true 6sting, and check out OF2 Natty Gas thread, we are literally swimming in that stuff:

http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/us-natural-gas-discoveries-t52943.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nother factor here is coal.. don't we have like 250 years supply of coal in the US? And then there's nuclear. If France can supply all it's electricity via nuclear, then we can too (if we had too).

So it seems to me that when major declines in light sweet become obvious, there will still be twice as much heavy crude still in the ground, buying plenty of time for us to enact major conservation measures and transition auto manufacturing over to electric.

We waste a lot oil right now, so you can't in fairness discount the fuel savings real conservation would bring. It would mean lifestyle changes for sure, like the end of the hour+ commute from suburbia. But how does that necessarily mean The End Of The World? Americans made it through WWII with very strict rationing, and yet society never fell apart.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I think that about covers USGS peak oil dates.

[AgentR]

You may be confusing Peak Oil with all the various stories of fast collapse and such. Peak Oil is undeniably true; its simply math; finite amount of X; some curve describing consumption rate of X; thus there exist a maximal point of consumption. Basic calculus. Nothing fancy at all.

Now... Whether that maximal point is in 2006 or 2286 remains to be proven; but the existence of that point is not in question.

What does this mean then? It causes people to confuse beliefs and prognostications with the underlying truth. Peak Oil to some, not only means a limited resource, but a resource availability failure COMING SOON, that will cause some kind of economic and political cascade failure of the system resulting in vast swaths of uninhabited suburban homes and imminent die-off.

[Armageddon]

Peak oil is the reason why are witnessing the collapse of modern society. Don't believe me ? Just wait until Winter or 2010 at the latest. Buckle up buddy boy, this is going to be a wild ride.

[ian807]

In our lifetimes, peak oil is more about economics than energy.

In a nutshell, we're not running out of oil, per se. We're running out of cheap oil that's energy net positive (i.e. you get more energy out of it than you put in to get it).

There's a lot of oil in the Bakken oil fields for example. Unfortunately, it's in that aren't very permeable, so you basically have to dig the rocks up, grind them to a powder, and heat that to get the oil out. It's easy to use much more energy to do that than you get out of the oil, at a cost far higher than what you could sell the oil for.

So, as huge as that field might be, it's useless.

So oil gets more expensive as time goes by, pushing the economy down, and down, making more and more things like international shipping and fertilizer production too expensive to do in many parts of the world. The world is no longer flat, or small.

Just in time becomes, "maybe in a month or two." Fertilizer becomes something you hope you can make locally, or get eventualy, if you can afford it. Medicine, tools become rare and expensive.

Food production suffers. Manufacturing suffers. We all get poorer. Industries start failing. When the farmer can't get the money to plant, the trucking company goes out of business and the rails don't go where they used to, we're looking at food distribution problems that mean higher prices at least. No food at worst.

All of this would be less of a problem if we had the population we did at the turn of the twentieth century. There are too many of us now. In the next couple of decades, I expect, some large portion of us are going to starve, not be able get their medicines, and so on. Expect a die off.

If we were smarter, and started now, damming every river for electricity, re-instituting a rail system, switched more things to coal and natural gas and made a big push to develop solar. wind and wave power, we might transition painlessly.

We won't, of course. Politicians only care about staying in power. The wealthy only care about preserving shier money. Any significant change will have to be done bottom up.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', '
')If we were smarter, and started now, damming every river for electricity, re-instituting a rail system, switched more things to coal and natural gas and made a big push to develop solar. wind and wave power, we might transition painlessly.

We won't, of course.

[OutOfGas]

If peak oil is not true why are Mexico and many other countries production (including US) declining rapidly ?

The only new large finds (relativly speaking) are very expensive to develop.

Saudi Arabia ( population exploding) is barely able to meet domestic budget with current export rates.

Even with the US recession, people still move like army ants in their autos.

I believe within a year or two, when Peak Oil becomes accepted $147 B oil will seen cheap.

TSWHTF when gas shortages become common in the US despite the price.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'P')eak oil is the reason why are witnessing the collapse of modern society. Don't believe me ? Just wait until Winter or 2010 at the latest. Buckle up buddy boy, this is going to be a wild ride.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')You're right, what I'm really questioning here is the "Doom" factor of peak oil. I feel confident from what I've learned up to now that a peak on heavy crude is not a concern within my lifetime.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')You're right, what I'm really questioning here is the "Doom" factor of peak oil. I feel confident from what I've learned up to now that a peak on heavy crude is not a concern within my lifetime.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I think that about covers USGS peak oil dates.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I think that about covers USGS peak oil dates.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutOfGas', 'I')f peak oil is not true why are Mexico and many other countries production (including US) declining rapidly ?