This just hit me yesterday. Last time I checked, I've been posting on this site for a year or so. I may have sounded like a "true believer" over that time, but to be honest I haven't taken it completely seriously.
I never took the step that most have, where you buy a number of books and really dig in and research and come to your own conclusions.
I sort of find myself in the same middle-ground of doubt as I do with Global Warming. With Global Warming, as with Peak Oil, you can find position papers from eminent scientists who completely contradict each other. I'm not a physicist, chemist, or any other Phd. As most laypeople, I tend to just seek out what the CONSENSUS opinion of the experts is.
And so after all this time, I'm starting to think Ok, this ain't a hobby anymore I really want to know if Peak Oil is for real or not. I read so many contradicting things on the web, my head just spins when I really try to get a handle on it.
For example, I think peak oilers say that there are like 1.17 trillion barrels of reserves in the world. And then I check out another expert, and he claims 4.2 trillion. And then there's the issue of the heavier crude, everything besides light sweet -- I have no real handle on how useful that crude is? I'm guessing the peak oil argument is that heavy crude is too expensive to refine to gasoline to offset the decline in easier-refined light sweet.
But really, is that correct? For all I know, advances in refining technology could make up that gap.
So that's the difficulty for me.. there are Phd's with 20 years experience in the oil business on both sides of the argument, so how is an average Joe to be expected to sort all that out?
There are some things I'm comfortable with dismissing, such as abiotic oil. What I gather from my reading is that this theory is big in Russia, and supposedly it's "helped them find reserves where nobody thought they existed." But then others point out that isn't it mysterious that abiotic oil only seems to exist in remote locations ruled by secretive regimes. And add to that, from what I understand the fact that oil is a fossil fuel is pretty settled science.
So anyway what would be helpful for me I guess would be a recommendation on some books that take an EVEN HANDED look at both sides of the argument. I don't want to read a book from an all-out peak oil proponent. What I'm looking for is OBJECTIVITY, ideally a qualified author who explores the subject with no pre-existing bias or agenda.
And, if anyone can give me some more explanation here as to why the heavier crudes aren't a replacement for the light sweet, I'd appreciate it.
PeakOil is You
An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Sixstrings » Wed 27 May 2009, 22:33:46
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Jotapay » Wed 27 May 2009, 22:49:50
It is.
I don't have the patience to go into it now. We are all going to die anyway, so why not live a happy life less tressed with weighty issues if you don't have a heart in the fight?
I don't have the patience to go into it now. We are all going to die anyway, so why not live a happy life less tressed with weighty issues if you don't have a heart in the fight?
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by seldom_seen » Wed 27 May 2009, 22:55:16
The U.S. peaked in 1970. That's history now. The North Sea peaked. Cantarell, the second biggest oil find in the world is on the downslope. Indonesia peaked and withdrew from OPEC...and so on and so forth...
It's really up to you to connect the dots and decide if all these individual countries and oil fields added together equal the world? No one can hold your hand through that process.
It's really up to you to connect the dots and decide if all these individual countries and oil fields added together equal the world? No one can hold your hand through that process.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Sixstrings » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:00:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'T')he U.S. peaked in 1970. That's history now. The North Sea peaked. Cantarell, the second biggest oil find in the world is on the downslope. Indonesia peaked and withdrew from OPEC...and so on and so forth...
It's really up to you to connect the dots and decide if all these individual countries and oil fields added together equal the world? No one can hold your hand through that process.
It's really up to you to connect the dots and decide if all these individual countries and oil fields added together equal the world? No one can hold your hand through that process.
I understand that reserves do in fact peak. What I'm looking for clarification on is the difference between the grades of crude. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a peak on heavier crude is a very long way off into the future.
So this whole debate is about light sweet, and whether the heavier crude can replace it. That's what I want to know more about, how are you certain that advances in refining tech won't be able to keep the gas stations full with refined heavy crude?
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by hardtootell-2 » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:09:48
Ok Six - I'll bite
why cant heavier oil replace lighter?
The crucial central point is that it take more energy to produce an equivalent barrel of oil. This amount of energy keeps increasing over the years as lighter, easier stuff is found, extracted, refined, shipped and burned. The "rate of return" keeps going down. The low hanging fruit has been eaten. We have to climb high onto a thin limb to get those last half rotten worm infested peices of fruit.
In the end it won't matter about how many $$ it costs. It only matters how much energy it takes to make liquid fuel. If it costs a barrel to make a barrel, its over. It may even be over when it costs half a barrel to make a barrel. TWHWKI has ended
I hope this helps. Any real experts feel free to correct any flawed logic/facts
why cant heavier oil replace lighter?
The crucial central point is that it take more energy to produce an equivalent barrel of oil. This amount of energy keeps increasing over the years as lighter, easier stuff is found, extracted, refined, shipped and burned. The "rate of return" keeps going down. The low hanging fruit has been eaten. We have to climb high onto a thin limb to get those last half rotten worm infested peices of fruit.
In the end it won't matter about how many $$ it costs. It only matters how much energy it takes to make liquid fuel. If it costs a barrel to make a barrel, its over. It may even be over when it costs half a barrel to make a barrel. TWHWKI has ended
I hope this helps. Any real experts feel free to correct any flawed logic/facts
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Micki » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:10:44
Doesn't sound like you doubt the concept of peak oil, just when it is going to happen.
Luckily preparing for PO also means getting rid of old yoke's and setting up for a better lifestyle so whether the predictions are off by time you haven't lost anything.
Regarding the heavy stuff; it has low flow rate, expensive to refine (&limited refining capability).
That means compared to light sweet there is a heck of a lot more work before it hits the market as final product. Partly becasue of this I haven't become a doomer. I see an increasing polarization in the world between the can-affords and the can't and a stronger police/military to keep in the can't-afford's in place.
One possibility I thougth of back in 05 was that US was going to drop consumption a lot so that China and Europe can continue the party. (At the time I thought China was going to favor Euro over strengthening of their own currency) but basically I think similar outcome is still possible. i.e. the traditional consumer nations will have to drop consumption and this is partly taken up by emerging nations. For a limited time this can allow emerging nations to increase consumption even if the world as a whole decreases.
Luckily preparing for PO also means getting rid of old yoke's and setting up for a better lifestyle so whether the predictions are off by time you haven't lost anything.
Regarding the heavy stuff; it has low flow rate, expensive to refine (&limited refining capability).
That means compared to light sweet there is a heck of a lot more work before it hits the market as final product. Partly becasue of this I haven't become a doomer. I see an increasing polarization in the world between the can-affords and the can't and a stronger police/military to keep in the can't-afford's in place.
One possibility I thougth of back in 05 was that US was going to drop consumption a lot so that China and Europe can continue the party. (At the time I thought China was going to favor Euro over strengthening of their own currency) but basically I think similar outcome is still possible. i.e. the traditional consumer nations will have to drop consumption and this is partly taken up by emerging nations. For a limited time this can allow emerging nations to increase consumption even if the world as a whole decreases.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by mos6507 » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:19:47
Heavy oil is still preferable to tar sands, oil shale, and CTL. The US actually has reasonable heavy oil refining capacity as that's the main grade of oil we get from Venezuela. It's one reason Venezuela can't really stop selling us oil. If other countries were smart they would start building heavy oil refineries.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Sixstrings » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:33:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'H')eavy oil is still preferable to tar sands, oil shale, and CTL. The US actually has reasonable heavy oil refining capacity as that's the main grade of oil we get from Venezuela. It's one reason Venezuela can't really stop selling us oil. If other countries were smart they would start building heavy oil refineries.
Ah, ok. Well the fragments of information I have are starting to come together to make some sense. I remember reading somewhere heavy crude is mixed with a smaller amount of light sweet then refined. So WE ARE in fact already using heavy crude to make gasoline. Would it be exponentially more energy intensive to just refine the heavy crude and omit the mixed-in light sweet? Why is it such a big deal to refine heavy crude without using light sweet?
My hunch here is that the world would do just fine if all we had was heavy crude to make gasoline. But the world is not prepared for that transitiion.. so if the light sweet declines too fast there will be a period of high fuel prices, and then the question is how much anarchy will that cause.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by Sixstrings » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:44:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'D')oesn't sound like you doubt the concept of peak oil, just when it is going to happen.
Luckily preparing for PO also means getting rid of old yoke's and setting up for a better lifestyle so whether the predictions are off by time you haven't lost anything.
Regarding the heavy stuff; it has low flow rate, expensive to refine (&limited refining capability).
That means compared to light sweet there is a heck of a lot more work before it hits the market as final product. Partly becasue of this I haven't become a doomer. I see an increasing polarization in the world between the can-affords and the can't and a stronger police/military to keep in the can't-afford's in place.
One possibility I thougth of back in 05 was that US was going to drop consumption a lot so that China and Europe can continue the party. (At the time I thought China was going to favor Euro over strengthening of their own currency) but basically I think similar outcome is still possible. i.e. the traditional consumer nations will have to drop consumption and this is partly taken up by emerging nations. For a limited time this can allow emerging nations to increase consumption even if the world as a whole decreases.
Luckily preparing for PO also means getting rid of old yoke's and setting up for a better lifestyle so whether the predictions are off by time you haven't lost anything.
Regarding the heavy stuff; it has low flow rate, expensive to refine (&limited refining capability).
That means compared to light sweet there is a heck of a lot more work before it hits the market as final product. Partly becasue of this I haven't become a doomer. I see an increasing polarization in the world between the can-affords and the can't and a stronger police/military to keep in the can't-afford's in place.
One possibility I thougth of back in 05 was that US was going to drop consumption a lot so that China and Europe can continue the party. (At the time I thought China was going to favor Euro over strengthening of their own currency) but basically I think similar outcome is still possible. i.e. the traditional consumer nations will have to drop consumption and this is partly taken up by emerging nations. For a limited time this can allow emerging nations to increase consumption even if the world as a whole decreases.
Thanks for clarifying what I really meant, Micki. You're right, what I'm really questioning here is the "Doom" factor of peak oil. I feel confident from what I've learned up to now that a peak on heavy crude is not a concern within my lifetime.
So it all comes down to whether or not we can get by on heavy crude. Prices would be higher, but efficiency being what it is that wouldn't last forever (perhaps refining heavy crude is expensive only because we don't have to use it, as it becomes the only option costs may reduce).
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true
by seldom_seen » Wed 27 May 2009, 23:48:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')o this whole debate is about light sweet, and whether the heavier crude can replace it. That's what I want to know more about, how are you certain that advances in refining tech won't be able to keep the gas stations full with refined heavy crude?
Well...I'll give you my opinion. When it comes to oil production technology. The only major advancements I'm aware of are new abilities to suck oil out of the ground at faster rates and in harder to reach places. This is classic Jevon's Paradox, using up what little remains at an increasing rate. At this point, technology doesn't appear to be helping us, but intensifying our problems.
Heavy oil production will play a role going forward, but it will be mostly a footnote to the oil age. Light sweet crude was the good stuff. It was the game. When that game is over, the party is over. The amount of energy needed to extract and refine heavy oil just won't make it economical to run a global economy of 10 billion hyper-consumers.
Not to mention the collapse of capital markets, the extreme volatility of oil prices, unstable political conditions in heavy oil provinces like Venezuela. All of this makes planning for a heavy oil future a dodgy proposition at best.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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