[and also]

Just a historical note...

Pennsylvania, as most know, was the birthplace of the modern oil and gas industry. It is also the birthplace of the realization of the finite nature of hydrocarbon resources.

In his 1890 report to the governor, PA assistant geologist John Carll laid out the poor outlook for continuation of the state's remarkable oil and gas output, and said the following..

"Has not the history of the first oil and gas pool in Pennsylvania been repeated in every one of them so far discovered? Does not each one develop or grow up to its culminating point and then decline? After twenty nine years of prospecting and the discovery of about 150 oil and gas pools has one yet been found that maintained a perennial output.
Having convincing experimental evidence that all oil and gas pools are exhaustible, that a number have already been practically drained, that nearly all those under the drill have passed the summit of production and are now irresistibly gravitating on the downward slope; and having been taught by geologic study of the facts that the productive area is being reduced from year to year by the new pools discovered and depleted within it; and also narrowed and defined by the great number of unsuccessful and ill-omened wells sunk along its borders, one would be inexcusable if he neglected to call attention to these things.

Little more than twenty nine years have passed since the first oil well was struck in Pennsylvania. A brief time historically but full of wonderful achievements in developing the oil fields, in originating and perfecting pipe line systems, in refining the crude product, and introducing a new light throughout the world! From a zero point, the business has expanded until 75,000 barrels of crude per day are now required to satisfy the demands of trade. Already about 58,000 wells have been sunk, and as they are scattered over every part of Western Pennsylvania, the geographical locations and outlines of all the known oil beds have thus been approximately defined by the drill and a pretty complete knowledge of the constitution and structure of the underground to a depth of several thousand feet has been obtained.

Experience has demonstrated that oil and gas pools are exhaustible and that a constant production of oil or gas can only be maintained by sinking new wells and adding new pools to those already developed. Hitherto with a wide range of new territory to work upon, this has been possible; but the situation has changed and is changing rapidly. More than 150 pools of oil and gas have already been developed; they are scattered all along the great oil belt and as far as can be judged cover the most prolific parts of it. Is not the area left for future discoveries in the state greatly contracted thereby? Is it probable that a production of 70,000 barrels per day or even 60,000 barrels can be maintained in Pennsylvania for the next five years unless some new oil horizon he discovered of which the prospecting of twenty nine years has failed to give us a hint? If not, then it is fortunate for the consumers of oil that Ohio has become an oil producer and that Kentucky, Colorado, California, Wyoming, and Texas are anxious to take a hand also.

It is not claimed in any part of this report nor indeed in any previous one that the oil and gas fields of Pennsylvania are exhausted nor that they will be completely drained in a very few years - although speaking comparatively and with reference to geologic time the latter expression might be allowable. But it is claimed that they have been excessively and wastefully depleted, that all the fully developed pools are surely on the decline, that every pool depleted lessens by just so much the area to be profitably drilled, and every year's unsuccessful prospecting outside of the productive belts and of deep drilling within them makes the outlook for the discovery of new oil horizons less hopeful, that from this time forward we have no reasonable ground for expecting or even hoping that these oil fields will continue to supply the world with cheap light as they have in the past, and that therefore it is wise to pause and consider how best to husband our remaining resources and make the most of them."

<a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=BLwbAAAAMAAJ&lpg=PA22&ots=YDhG7lITl2&dq=Pennsylvania%20Annual%20oil%20and%20gas%20production&pg=PA21&ci=133,1204,765,198&source=bookclip">Seventh Report on the Oil and Gas Fields of Western Pennsylvania For 1887, 1888. (Following the Annual Reports of 1885 and 1886 By John Franklin Carll, Pennsylvania. Board of Commissioners for the Second Geological Survey</a>

He went on to quote state geologist J.P. Lesley, from a talk given to an industry group in 1886:

"I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms that the amazing exhibition of oil and gas which has characterized the last twenty and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years is nevertheless not only geologically but historically a temporary and vanishing phenomenon, one which young men will live to see come to its natural end. And this opinion I do not entertain in any loose or unreasonable form; it is the result of both an active and a thoughtful acquaintance with the subject. From the time that Colonel Drake sunk the first well on the plains of Titusville, I have professionally participated in the history of the oil and gas developments and believe myself to be familiar with whatever has been said and done in the premises and there does not remain upon my mind a shadow of doubt respecting the practical extinction in the comparatively near future of that great commerce in oil of which the people of Pennsylvania have foolishly taken so little advantage when they might have accumulated from its sale in all quarters of the world a provision of moneyed wealth unheard of in the history of our race. The opportunity is indeed still offered, but it is steadily diminishing and in a few years it will entirely pass away never to return again. For I am no geologist if it be true that the manufacture of oil in the laboratory of nature is still going on at the hundredth or the thousandth part of the rate of its exhaustion. And the science of geology may as well be abandoned as a guide if events prove that such a production of oil in western Pennsylvania as our statistics exhibit can continue for successive generations. It cannot be. There is a limited amount. Our children will merely and with difficulty drain the dregs. I hold the same opinion respecting gas and for the same reasons with the difference merely that the end will certainly come sooner…"

It is interesting how cogent, reasonable, and articulate these gentlemen are, and I suspect that any of today's best geologists would have been hard pressed to deliver a more sound report. It is also interesting just how wrong this was, particularly with respect to gas.

This year and last year, the annual production of gas in Pennsylvania was roughly 180 bcf. The same level as in the mid-1880s when these comments were made. Almost exactly the same. These gentlemen knew geology, of course, but they had very little understanding of technology. Although they had witnessed great technological advances, it was simply not even conceivable, to the even the most trained person, what that might mean for resources. One can not blame them. However, one can blame those, that today, with all we know about technology and resources and their interdependance, insist on thinking that we now know all of the resources that can be found and produced.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', ' ')However, one can blame those, that today, with all we know about technology and resources and their interdependance, insist on thinking that we now know all of the resources that can be found and produced.

[and also]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', ' ')However, one can blame those, that today, with all we know about technology and resources and their interdependance, insist on thinking that we now know all of the resources that can be found and produced.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', ' ')However, one can blame those, that today, with all we know about technology and resources and their interdependance, insist on thinking that we now know all of the resources that can be found and produced.

[and also]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'H')ere's what I suggest. I suggest that you be nicer to and tread lighter on the more respected and esteemed long time members of this amazing website such as dunewalker. It's a friendly tip to someone who's been here two days.

[Daniel_Plainview]

So is J.P. Lesley the first peak-oiler?

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', '
')I would suggest you work on your reading comprehension. Nowhere did I suggest that anyone suggested that. How in the world did you come up with that?

The point, is...they had no conception of tight gas stimulation technology, or horizontal drilling, or shale gas resources and one can not blame them for not knowing that or thinking that the resources then known to them were the only resources, and only resource types, that would ever be available. Today, people still make this mistake...

Is that clearer for you?

[eastbay]

No, no. It's a very interesting posting. Thanks! But those of us who have been here and studied this for years often suggest newcomers read as much as they can on this very important subject. Suggesting a two-day member do some reading is generally a friendly suggestion. And from someone like dunewalker it'll always be a friendly suggestion. Heck, even those of us who've been studying peak oil for many, many years still keep on reading more. We even have an entire section devoted to 'suggested' reading.

[MD]

Very nice first post! I love the writing style from the late 19th/early 20th century. Thanks for sharing.

You are quite right to point out that technology has shifted the oil and gas produciton curve dramatically and continually for the past hundred years. And yes it would be faulty to assume that all of the discovery is done. It's equally faulty to assume technology as a never ending panacea.

I suggest you look more deeply into "available energy" models, ERoEI, and energy as economic activity before you decide to step so solidly into the "technology will save us" camp.

Good luck and welcome!

[Narz]

I think the first peaker was Buddha.

"All things are impermanent"

[Schmuto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('and also', 'T')oday, people still make this mistake...

Is that clearer for you?

[kpeavey]

Col Drake must have experienced Peak Oil when production from his first well went into decline.

Its a shame nobody listened to Carll and instead proceeded to develop a modern global civilization based on increasing oil and energy consumption.

[Plantagenet]

What year did John Carll predict that Pennsylvania production would peak? Did he predict when US production would peak? How about world production?

What? Carll made no predictions and he presented no testable hypothesis? Then John Carll's position in history was minor. He appears to have been just a second tier bureaucrat in Pennsylvania state government who noted in a report that oil field production was declining in Pennsylvania----something that was common knowledge in the oil biz in Pennsylvania.

[Schmuto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')hat year did John Carll predict that Pennsylvania production would peak? Did he predict when US production would peak? How about world production?

What? Carll made no predictions and he presented no testable hypothesis? Then John Carll's position in history was minor. He appears to have been just a second tier bureaucrat in Pennsylvania state government who noted in a report that oil field production was declining in Pennsylvania----something that was common knowledge in the oil biz in Pennsylvania.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') think the first peaker was Buddha.

"All things are impermanent"

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') think the first peaker was Buddha.

"All things are impermanent"

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') think the first peaker was Buddha.

"All things are impermanent"