[copious.abundance]

Here's another example: Wheat.

As this chart here shows, the price of wheat rose from a little over $3 per bushel in 1998 to almost $11 per bushel last year, a rise of almost 400%.



However, if you look at world wheat production during that time, did production also rise 400%? No. As this chart here shows, production of wheat rose from around 600 million metric tons in 1998 to about 675 million metric tons last year. That's only a rise of 12.5%.



So once again, price rises are vastly out of proportion to production rises. Oil is no different than most other economic goods.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')t's very likely we'll see a decade long or so plateau given refinery costs and payback time. Essentially, if a refinery won't pay itself off, it probably won't be built, so even if we can see a peak in production, we'll probably see a plateau because the extra refinery capacity needed for the top of a peak would be at a loss for the refinery owner/s.

[Tyler_JC]

Oil production is influenced by oil prices.

If Chevron expects oil prices to stay above $60 for the next 10 years, they will be willing invest in more expensive prospects.

However, those new prospects will not be profitable under $60. If oil drops below that price level, there will be no more investment in those kinds of projects.

The result for consumers? A permanent increase in prices. We might get an occasional dip below the minimum during periods of extreme dislocation, but it won't last long.

There's your peak oil. Not the end of oil, just the end of cheap oil.

(I thought we had established this as fact by now...)

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')There's your peak oil. Not the end of oil, just the end of cheap oil.

(I thought we had established this as fact by now...)

[Tyler_JC]

Shortonsense,

That's why Hubbert was right on the timing of American peak oil...and wrong about the timing of World peak oil.

Oil prices were essentially flat between Hubbert's prediction and 1971 when it came true.

The price volatility of the 1970s (as well as the geopolitical stuff) screwed up the arithmetic, changing the timing of world peak oil.

To ignore the economics is to ignore a very important part of the calculations.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')There's your peak oil. Not the end of oil, just the end of cheap oil.

(I thought we had established this as fact by now...)

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')hortonsense,

That's why Hubbert was right on the timing of American peak oil...and wrong about the timing of World peak oil.

Oil prices were essentially flat between Hubbert's prediction and 1971 when it came true.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Colin pretending the end of cheap oil was still in the future, some 65 or 25 years after the transition to more expensive oil had already happened, strikes me as either sloppy thinking, or self serving semantics looking for a snappy title those many years later. Having read the conclusions in his book from the same time period, I'm betting its just sloppy thinking, the guy just isn't an economist.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't get you Shortonsense. You have brains Short. Do you have content? WHERE DO YOU ACTUALLY STAND ON GLOBAL OIL DEPLETION AND PEAK OIL? This thread is the place. Let's see if we can nail the Grey Matter to the wall (as it were)
___________________________________________

Will there be a production 'peak?'