Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 23:47:01

this is an approach i try to take to surfing and skin-diving. when i started, i would worry about sharks, partially because i was seeing them and coming, in some cases, face to face with them.

so i tried to educate myself about the known history of shark attacks on humans. found out that in most cases, it's a "test bite", the shark usually realizes that the person's leg/surfboard is not food, and skedaddles. of course, it's a doozy of a test bite, it doesn't do you any good if you're bleeding to death that the shark has realized you're not a seal.

one year in particular stood out. 4 shark attacks in Hawaii, usually by tiger sharks, and 4 deaths. 4 shark attacks in California, usually by Great White, and 4 survivors.

The norm in California is to wear a wetsuit; the norm in Hawaii is to not wear a wetsuit. The wetsuit functions like a built in life preserver.

It's a one-way elevator ride back to the surface (usually).

Now, really, this doesn't have anything to do with Peak Oil.

* i have found that being in the ocean is a GREAT way to forget about all these, in most cases very realistic, worries (that we have about Peak Oil).

* this forum is one of our Life Preservers, for those of us who are engaged in planning for Peak Oil/Energy Transition (how' THAT for a euphemism ?!)

As far as worrying accurately about Peak Oil, i think this website is one of our best tools.
User avatar
pedalling_faster
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1399
Joined: Sat 10 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby hotsacks » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 00:28:50

I like the metaphor.
It makes me feel...buoyant.
User avatar
hotsacks
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Aimrehtopyh » Sun 12 Mar 2006, 03:01:41

I like this analogy, but I think it's more about flavor than bouyancy. Imagine if you ravenously (and blindfolded) bit into a chicken drumstick while thinking it was beef. It'd take a few chomps before you realized your error. Now wrap that drumstick in a condom and repeat the experiment. How far do you think your teeth would sink in before you realized it wasn't the beef you were expecting?
User avatar
Aimrehtopyh
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat 18 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sun 12 Mar 2006, 20:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 't')his is an approach i try to take to surfing and skin-diving. when i started, i would worry about sharks, partially because i was seeing them and coming, in some cases, face to face with them.

so i tried to educate myself about the known history of shark attacks on humans. found out that in most cases, it's a "test bite", the shark usually realizes that the person's leg/surfboard is not food, and skedaddles. of course, it's a doozy of a test bite, it doesn't do you any good if you're bleeding to death that the shark has realized you're not a seal.

one year in particular stood out. 4 shark attacks in Hawaii, usually by tiger sharks, and 4 deaths. 4 shark attacks in California, usually by Great White, and 4 survivors.

The norm in California is to wear a wetsuit; the norm in Hawaii is to not wear a wetsuit. The wetsuit functions like a built in life preserver.

It's a one-way elevator ride back to the surface (usually).

Now, really, this doesn't have anything to do with Peak Oil.

* i have found that being in the ocean is a GREAT way to forget about all these, in most cases very realistic, worries (that we have about Peak Oil).

* this forum is one of our Life Preservers, for those of us who are engaged in planning for Peak Oil/Energy Transition (how' THAT for a euphemism ?!)

As far as worrying accurately about Peak Oil, i think this website is one of our best tools.


While others seem to have gone off on tangents from the details, I get what you're referring to: even if something calamitous DOES happen (ie: chomped on by a Great White Shark) if you've taken the time & trouble before hand to work out what's likely to happen (ie: wearing a wetsuit, so you float) you're more likely to survive.

To relate this to peak oil: if you take the time & trouble to inform yourself as to what's likely to happen, you stand a far better chance Post Peak oil, than does one's compatriots who are being Clueless As Usual.

This, I guess, would hold as true for a Post Peak Oil world which has avoided Peak Energy as one in which Peak Oil has become Peak Energy (as seems most likely right now, thanks to our ever-more clueless Freemarket). Unfortunately, you're "preachin' to the choir", by posting this here.

BTW: urine (being an electrolyte) is one of the BEST shark-attractors around, so try to avoid doing the usual surfie-style of thing where they...urinate...in their wetsuit, because they are too lazy to go to the toilet before hand.
.
"To Get Rich you have to:

*Get up early;

*Work Hard;

*Strike Oil"

J Paul Getty
User avatar
ubercynicmeister
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 640
Joined: Sun 25 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 12 Mar 2006, 21:00:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Monty Python', '[')b]I'm So Worried

I'm so worried about what's hapenin' today, in the middle east, you know
And I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow
I'm so worried about the fashions today, I don't think they're good for your feet
And I'm so worried about the shows on TV that sometimes they want to repeat

I'm so worried about what's happenin' today, you know
And I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow
I'm so worried about my hair falling out and the state of the world today
And I'm so worried about bein' so full of doubt about everything, anyway

I'm so worried about modern technology
I'm so worried about all the things that they dump in the sea
I'm so worried about it, worried about it, worried, worried, worried

I'm so worried about everything that can go wrong
I'm so worried about whether people like this song
I'm so worried about this very next verse, it isn't the best that I've got
And I'm so worried about whether I should go on, or whether I should just stop

I'm worried about whether I ought to have stopped
And I'm worried about, it's the sort of thing I ought to know
And I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow

I'm so worried about whether I should have stopped then
I'm so worried that I'm driving everyone 'round the bend
I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
User avatar
rogerhb
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4727
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Smalltown New Zealand

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Pops » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 23:18:40

This I agree with:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '
')* i have found that being in the ocean is a GREAT way to forget about all these, in most cases very realistic, worries


The best way to learn to cope with declining availability of cheap oil is to learn to cope without it – before you need to; while you have the choice.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 07 May 2009, 09:26:28

Short, but good interview with Kunstler that was posted today

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]KT: In The Long Emergency, published in 2005, you predicted with astounding accuracy how the subprime mortgage meltdown would unfold. Your latest novel, World Made By Hand, takes place in the near future after a massive flu outbreak that originated in Mexico. Um, what should we start worrying about next?

JHK: Worry about the "recovery" that never comes and the insidious collapse of our institutions and arrangements that will proceed from this. Worry about lost incomes and vocations that will never come back (e.g. marketing exec for Target, Inc.) and the need to find new ways to be useful to your fellow human beings (and incidentally perhaps earn a living). Worry about finding a community to live in that is cohesive enough to stave off anarchy at the local level. Worry about building the best garden you can and making good compost. Worry about how difficult it is to learn how to play a musical instrument at age 47.
User avatar
dinopello
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6088
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: The Urban Village

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 07 May 2009, 21:02:54

I've been snorkeling over some reefs in the keys once, and it was a great experience. I can only imagine how much fun scuba must be. Unfortunately, I have a morbid fear of sharks. :( It's one of those cases where I rationally recognize the statistical risk, but can't get over little stories like the old man in my town who went swimming off his dock every morning for ten years, only to get eaten whole out of the blue one day.

But of course, you can apply that to activities like motorcycling as well, statistically quite a bit more dangerous than ocean swimming. I can think of five motorcyclists I've known in my life -- all had wrecks, 2 are deceased from wrecks.

And yet I do, of course, drive a car.. I've lost two family members and a good friend to crashes.

I'm getting more and more off topic here, but I did once encounter dolphins in the wild, very close to shore. It was a wonderful experience.. even after seeing them many times at Sea World and such, I was amazed at how fast they can swim past you, and how powerful they are.

Only later did I read somewhere that evidently messing around dolphins in the wild can be potentially dangerous? Well, it was a spur of the moment thing. I don't guess I'd repeat it, but it worked out. I didn't bother them and they didn't bother me.

So to sum up, this is an issue I wrestle with. My two sides.. my craving for adventure, and my more controlling drive of prudent caution.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby patience » Fri 08 May 2009, 20:22:32

Never had any craving for adventure. Life has given me more than my share without looking for it. As to worries, I try to choose my battles. No point in worrying over what I cannot change. However, I try to pay attention to what's going on and position myself appropriately. If the weatherman says rain today, I don't plan a picnic. Since I see some problems coming, I'm doing my best to be ready for them. Worrying is like a rocking chair--it gives you something to do, but it doesn't get you very far.
Local fix-it guy..
User avatar
patience
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 3180
Joined: Fri 04 Jan 2008, 04:00:00

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 08 May 2009, 23:32:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'N')ever had any craving for adventure. Life has given me more than my share without looking for it. As to worries, I try to choose my battles. No point in worrying over what I cannot change. However, I try to pay attention to what's going on and position myself appropriately. If the weatherman says rain today, I don't plan a picnic. Since I see some problems coming, I'm doing my best to be ready for them. Worrying is like a rocking chair--it gives you something to do, but it doesn't get you very far.


Well, with me the thing is that every time I've really enjoyed something, it's when I pushed myself outside my usual comfort zone. And then there are those what in the heck was I thinking / got myself into moments.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 08 May 2009, 23:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I')'ve been snorkeling over some reefs in the keys once, and it was a great experience. I can only imagine how much fun scuba must be. Unfortunately, I have a morbid fear of sharks. :( It's one of those cases where I rationally recognize the statistical risk, but can't get over little stories like the old man in my town who went swimming off his dock every morning for ten years, only to get eaten whole out of the blue one day.


What? You thought you were going to live forever? Does it make the story any better if the guy is petrified of swimming for ten years and then has a heart attack?

Getting eaten by a shark out of the blue doesn't seem to me like that bad of an ending for the story. I'd take that over chemo and radiation any day.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 09 May 2009, 02:55:07

Sentient beings confronting their mortality who have temporarily conquered their predators tend to worry a lot.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9572
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 09 May 2009, 11:05:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I')'ve been snorkeling over some reefs in the keys once, and it was a great experience. I can only imagine how much fun scuba must be. Unfortunately, I have a morbid fear of sharks. :( It's one of those cases where I rationally recognize the statistical risk, but can't get over little stories like the old man in my town who went swimming off his dock every morning for ten years, only to get eaten whole out of the blue one day.


What? You thought you were going to live forever? Does it make the story any better if the guy is petrified of swimming for ten years and then has a heart attack?

Getting eaten by a shark out of the blue doesn't seem to me like that bad of an ending for the story. I'd take that over chemo and radiation any day.


Hm.. you know, you've made me think about this a bit. I guess what it comes down to is that I really dislike running into trouble that's "my fault," something that could have been avoided. It's more of a pride thing.

But I fully recognize it's irrational. I used to fly quite often, and now days I won't board a plane. My last flight was a bad one, and it's like something clicked and all those suppressed flying fears were validated.

So those are my fear hang-ups.. shark attack, plane crash, motorcycle crash.

EDIT: I forgot one.. para-sailing.. I'd secretly love to go do that, but I've read too many stories about tourists getting dragged across a beach, over the street, and into a building.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 09 May 2009, 12:57:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')So those are my fear hang-ups.. shark attack



Fear of animal attack is a pretty basic fear, even though most of us will never be attacked by any really dangerous animal (not even by another human).

I have a fear of wild hogs. The mountain lions around don't bother me, the wild hogs do. 8O But if pressed, I can't decide if I would rather die of cancer than be killed and eaten (or not killed but still eaten) by a wild hog. I think I'd rather die of cancer, but I'm not entirely sure. Statistically, I'm much more likely to die of cancer than wild hog attack.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 09 May 2009, 13:32:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '
')I don't worry much anymore. I still feel anxiety frequently, but that's just my nervous system doing its thing..



Yeah, worrying is generally useless. I prefer planning to worrying. When I find myself worrying, I deliberately switch over to planning.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 09 May 2009, 15:31:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Poor guy. I have a morbid fear of sharks ever since Jaws the movie. But I overcame them and went to Florida and the reefs for my scuba diving certificate. (I learned in a PA quarry and swimming pool). Today I would never scuba dive up here on the cold North Coast. Too dark, to scary down there where the Great Whites Roam. But i have seen sharks in the tropics and they are not scary under the water, just another large fish that really isn't interested in you. It is also literally a leap of faith You are scared of entering the water but finally you jump off the boat in spite of the cold, nerves, hard surface, and scary things under there just so you can experience the wonder.

I convinced my wife to go on Space Mountain and other fast rides at Disneyland. I told her the Uncle Walt would never let anything happen to her :)

I think the trick is individualizing your fears. Break them down and categorize them and you will be fine. So I will scuba dive in fresh water or very clear tropical water. Maybe say to yourself: para-sailing over water is safe, I won't get near the beach, they will drop me appropriately

I'd go para sailing except it is freezing on the Pacific.


Well, I'd be even more freaked about SCUBA in fresh water -- alligators. Gators are more dangerous than sharks. Gators don't think you're a seal, and don't take test bites.. if he's hungry enough, he'll drag you to the bottom, drown you and eat you.

Now, I could SCUBA in springs.. that would actually be gorgeous too, the water is crystal clear.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sat 09 May 2009, 15:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'N')ow, I could SCUBA in springs.. that would actually be gorgeous too, the water is crystal clear.


Springs like caves? That's way more dangerous than sharks or gators.

My basic rule is that I try to avoid engaging in any activity where I've known more than two people personally who broke a femur doing it. So far the list is down hill skiing, motorcyles, and four wheelers. I'd like to try skydiving once, but I wouldn't make a regular habit of it. Seems to be around a one percent chance of something really bad happening when you jump out of a plane. Do it once, and you're probably fine. Do it 100 times and the odds start to not look so good.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 09 May 2009, 16:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'N')ow, I could SCUBA in springs.. that would actually be gorgeous too, the water is crystal clear.


Springs like caves? That's way more dangerous than sharks or gators.

My basic rule is that I try to avoid engaging in any activity where I've known more than two people personally who broke a femur doing it. So far the list is down hill skiing, motorcyles, and four wheelers. I'd like to try skydiving once, but I wouldn't make a regular habit of it. Seems to be around a one percent chance of something really bad happening when you jump out of a plane. Do it once, and you're probably fine. Do it 100 times and the odds start to not look so good.


No, not caves. We have some large spring lakes and rivers in Florida, though I don't know if they're open to SCUBA or just recreational swimming (I've never seen anyone SCUBA there, so dumb idea maybe).

To add some perspective to this dangerous activity discussion, here's a chart of what one is most likely to die from:
Image

Now, the problem I have with this kind of chart is that it is based on the entire population. Not everyone swims in tropical ocean waters. Not everyone motorcycles. But everyone has a heart, so heart disease at #1 makes sense.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: If you're going to Worry, Worry Accurately.

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 09 May 2009, 16:09:59

Might want to stay out of hospitals. :|

My stepmom died of hospital infections.
Ludi
 

Next

Return to Medical Issues Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron