[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('technet', 't')he timing does match up nicely actually since the interest rates got carved in 2002 to try to stop the tech bubble crash and that started the whole mortgage bubble... .back then oil was sub $30 and most ARM have 3 year or 5 year fixed period to start with..... so in 2002 all these products were designed and no one figured that oil would break $40... $58

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('technet', 'a')ctually i dont really go for the whole peak oil thing and until now i have always been trading oil short, because it had to come down in price..... lately i am long but its the first time in many years....

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'm')os6507 I don't know how many times you have stated that the US housing crisis somehow managed to derail the entire world's economy simultaneously. Makes no sense.

[AAA]

This guy is a troll trying to get everyone's panties twisted so he can laugh at you. Just ignore him.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'O')h, I almost forgot

[technet]

i guess what it comes down to is whether or not you believe we are close to the limit of the worlds possible max. oil production or not....

in 2006 2007 it was pretty clear that oil production couldnt be increased much more and the prices only came down because everything else caved in and hedge funds had to close everything including all their profitable oil trades to meet commitments on margin calls elsewhere, it was an entirely false sell off on oil and commodities, which the world is desperately hungry for.... wheat is up 10% in price the last 10 days.... gold, silver, copper.... its all still running.... there is a hunger

and if the oil production in 2007 was so tight, then its clear that the economic downturn was much needed, even created to stall the economy and hide the fact that we are short on resources behind a smoke screen of bull about how a gazillion janitors and garbage truck drivers managed to buy $10M pads in Malibu on liar loans, because without some hard figures this is just a load of smoke.

businesses mess up and banks are just businesses, but the figures and the huge sums of the bailouts dont equate to anything.... the bailout fed loans and all the money that has disappeared doesnt equate to what we are supposed to believe happened.... .

the total value of all US real residental estate is only about $11 Trillion so we are basically geting fed the line that every house in the US was bought on a liar loan and went to zero in value and this is clearly incorrect, its not even 20%....

monthly foreclosures were up around 250k - 300k per month from 2007 2008, so that is what ? about $1Trillion dollars in houses that probably lost 50% of their value in a foreclosure auction, so that's $500B in losses for the banks

you can find a single bank that lost more than this, so something is out of wack here.............

[MD]

Not bad OP.

It's all about energy.

[technet]

its even easier to understand when you think about it like this

first the resouces of the planet were very limited because we had no technology, so the human life was worth very little, slaves were the best way to get things done and those who had control of commodities, especially food and water were kings of their day.

then came the steam engine, and everything changed, suddenly machinery could do the job of hundreds of men, farming changed rapidly, locomotion changed rapidly and suddenly there were more resouces than humans to use them

slavery didnt go out of the window because there was a sudden change of heart, it went out of the window because the technology made it cheaper to run machines not slaves

the british were the big anti slave faction, not because they were so humanist, but because they wanted to sell steam engines

in the last 50-60 years since world war two we have conquerored the next hurdle which is comminications, now you can chat to anyone in the world, anywhere in the world at almost zero cost. you are never alone anymore... the concept of a guy sailing around the world on his own or trecking across antartica is fairly childish now, a GPS and a satellite phone and his only obstacle is a bit of bad weather.

so now we have the final obstacle at least in terms of living on the surface of this planet and that is unlimited energy.

energy is the choke point in the system, and anyone who tells you otherwise is just a fat liar.

it has little to do with crazy mortgages or derivate contracts, some of that made a mess, but what is really going on is the ratio of human beings to resources is now tlitling back towards the bad old days of slavery.

the resources are tight the population has gone exponential and whoever controls the natural resources will be the kings............. unless we can crack the energy choke ..............

if we have new forms of energy and abundance of energy everything will change

if not we will have new wars and a kind of techno version of roman times, where human life becomes worth less and less and many people in a poor financial position find themselves as no hopers, chipped and tagged and monitored and working in the modern day salt mines.

lets hope the energy comes first hey !

[efarmer]

Investors understand supply and demand and ride the
ebb and flows of it to make money in addition to projecting
capital into the future with the faith that sufficiently cheap
energy will make the pieces of the plan work, the materials
move, and the buyers motivated for the goods.

I bet on technology to play a large part in coping with
mineral energy shortage but I am dubious on it being
to scale or timely in the process of addressing the issue.

The huge group of people existing as investors and taking
inexpensive energy for granted to buoy up the level of
leverage and globalization we have been enjoying will
come down to betting the farm on technology to offset
any realities in fossil fuel energy that obstruct their
pursuits.

It is after all, just supply and demand, if a technological fix
does not address replacement cheap energy sources in
kind, then we are oversupplied with investors at that point.

The market exploits things well rather than fixes them in
my opinion unless the fix is an exploit that offsets a problem.
I am hopeful for, but not counting on, exploitable energy sources
in scale and cost to replace legacy sources to some level.
I suppose my lack of faith in the market conditions stimulating
technology to seamlessly cover the bet is why I am a stick in
the mud rather than a prolific investor beyond my own family
enterprises. I wish you the best technet and will be thrilled to
be proven too conservative.

[technet]

there are plenty of examples of managers and directors of corporations ignoring, or out right killing technology they feel is of no use or threatens their core business, or other investments.

this has clearly been the problem for the last 30-40 years or at least we'd have the electric car by now, if not for domestic traffic at least for delivery vans and taxis in major urban centres.... good grief the will power to organise this is zero...... most taxi journeys are short and a swap out battery and charging centres all over town, its much simpler than a petrol station with hundreds of gallons of flamable fuel....

so the question is if popular demand and common sense will finally prevail or we remained mired in this oil hoax until it brings us all into such a squabble that the planet takes a couple generations to recover... aka. WW3

in the mean time i will enjoy punching contracts on light sweet... hehehe.........

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('technet', 't')here are plenty of examples of managers and directors of corporations ignoring, or out right killing technology they feel is of no use or threatens their core business, or other investments.

this has clearly been the problem for the last 30-40 years or at least we'd have the electric car by now...
so the question is if popular demand and common sense will finally prevail

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('technet', 'I')ts a perfect storm for oil and i am neither a real believer in peak oil, since we will probably get through all this and ditch oil long before we run out, just as we did with coal. Nor am i a real conspiracy theorist. I have been trading crude oil for 10 years and i see this one coming.

[Ludi]

]$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('technet', ' ')we will probably get through all this and ditch oil long before we run out, just as we did with coal.

[davep]

With all due respect, pstarr, I think you're wrong.

People have been dining out on credit for a long time. Now that credit has dried up, and the banks are scared to lend. As an example, I earn well into six figures and had to push the bank for two months to get a 30k loan. This has nothing to do with resources and everything to do with banks imploding (again, not due to resource shortages).

I think that we may never produce more oil than we alreay have, and this will push us into a never-ending depression with the odd blip. However, resource depletion is not why we're at where we're at now (unless TPTB organised it to hide peak oil).

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know. It is hard for a cornie to believe we are running out of things.

[technet]

probably need to watch the clip " what happened to the electric car "

california made it law that the car companies had to start making all electric cars

in a nut shell they released it in the mid 90s, on lease only

it was very popular despite efforts to promote as badly as possible with advertising that made it look like aliens would abduct you just for driving one

large retails like Kmart even started putting charing points into their parking lots

after 3 years the leases ended, they were all recalled and sent to the crushers, no one was allowed to buy out their lease even if they wanted to

then they released the hummer instead

electric cars is a no brainer, infact some of the first cars in the 1900s were electric, gasoline only took absolute monopoly a bit later on

all you need is hot swap able batteries, that come out on cradles and get switched over, a bit like when you buy propane you take the empty cylnder back and get a full one but you only pay for the clinder once

even without huge distribution centres at least all taxis, local deliveries, local police, govt. vehciles and commuter traffic could all be on electric

and look at the margins, Telsa Motors reckon that a charge only costs a few dollars where as a tank of gas costs more than 20 times that...

the charging stations could make a fortune, or better still huge taxes on the charges, which wouldnt hurt the consumer at all, could be funneled into renewable energy... and better still what to do with the wind farms, hydro, solar etc. during the day and very late at night when power demand is lower......... hmmm.......... charge the batteries perhaps ? at peak times stop charging and let the other demands use the grid....

its a sad and sorry business, and our governments are traitors

think about it....

if a mafia protection racket will come to your door and you dont pay they will come back with guns, maybe kill your dog, hurt your kid, whatever... you are under threat....

you dont have any say in where the money goes or gets spent, you only know that by paying you will save your freedom and health and happiness....

try not paying your taxes and see what happens ?

governments were originally setup as protection rackets, to keep bandits and trouble out of the village / town....

even the mighty USofA and its fine consitution was basically a protection racket against the british taxes...........

now the protection rackets gone global...........

what was supposed to protect and serve is basically just a bunch of lunatics with guns and uniforms running about collecting money and telling you what you can and cant do