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Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 21:36:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Power output falls 13% in Jan on weak demand

By Xiao Wan
China Daily
February 11, 2009

China's power generation in January fell 13 percent year-on-year due to weak demand during the Lunar New Year, according to an industry association.

The country's major power producers produced only 250.3 million megawatt hours of power in the month, said an official with China Electricity Council (CEC) yesterday, who declined to be named.

This is the fourth consecutive month that the country has seen a negative growth in power generation. CEC statistics showed that thermal power generation in October, November and December last year fell 5.3 percent, 16.6 percent and 12.4 percent respectively.

... snip ...
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 21:41:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Power output falls 13% in Jan on weak demand

By Xiao Wan
China Daily
February 11, 2009

China's power generation in January fell 13 percent year-on-year due to weak demand during the Lunar New Year, according to an industry association.

The country's major power producers produced only 250.3 million megawatt hours of power in the month, said an official with China Electricity Council (CEC) yesterday, who declined to be named.

This is the fourth consecutive month that the country has seen a negative growth in power generation. CEC statistics showed that thermal power generation in October, November and December last year fell 5.3 percent, 16.6 percent and 12.4 percent respectively.

... snip ...


Explains pretty well the reason why Oil is selling at $35 a barrel. The demand for it has fallen off a cliff as far as the Chinese are concerned. They simply don't need all the electricity to run closed Factories. Demand won't be coming up anytime too soon either, unless somebody figures out a good way to make money off burning oil besides making cheap toys and cars.

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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Sun 15 Feb 2009, 23:03:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'T')here is one thing I do not understand.

Maybe you can explain it to me.

Japan buy stuff from China. China buy stuff from Japan.

Why don't Japan and China get together and agree with this plan.

Japan prints a fix amount of yen and give it to any Japanese citizen on the condition they buy Chinese goods.

China prints a fix amount of yuan and give it to any Chinese citizen on the condition they buy Japanese goods.

If the amount in yen EQUALS the amount in yuan then everything balances out and both country benefits in terms of jobs for the people.


One thing you have to understand is that the Chinese really, really, really HATE the Japanese. They have LONG memories and Japan has still not apologized for their wartime atrocities. This is still a huge issue right now.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 20 Feb 2009, 16:51:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Coal spot price falls as chinese power companies choose imports

Proactive Investors
February 18, 2009

Mainland stocks plummeted today, led by coal shares...

The spot price of coal at Qinhuangdao, where coal from northern China is shipped to the South, dropped 10 percent to RMB550 per tonne yesterday...

The global financial crisis has reduced demand for coal...

Portions of quotes I don't agree with and didn't copy are available with the original article linked in the title above.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 20 Feb 2009, 17:35:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Southpaw', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Southpaw', 'i')f all the countries are going down the drain. I really wonder who will rise after all this mess is over? I doubt China will keep taking orders from the U.S.A. after all the mistakes they have made.

What do you think Reverse Engineer?What will happen after the recession/depression ends? do you think that U.S.A. and to a lesser extent the E.U. will still be the dominant force in the world?


Haa, but who says anyone will rise? :twisted:


Yeah I'm starting to doubt that anyone will rise again any time soon also.


These are my people :lol:
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 17:12:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]China's power output fall may deepen to 4 pct in April

Reuters
April 23, 2009

BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) - China's power output declines may deepen to about 4 percent from a year earlier in April after falling 1.3 percent in March, which could indicate a delayed economic recovery, a business newspaper reported on Thursday.

... skip ...

China's electricity output declines have been narrowing after sinking 7.9 percent in the last month of 2008 and falling 11.7 percent in January.

... snip ...


Each blue line is a month. The percent change started to decline in June 2008 then it started to go negative in Oct 2008. The uptick was Feb 2009 and negative again in March 2009.

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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 18:44:29

bratticus quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')euters
April 23, 2009

BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) - China's power output declines may deepen to about 4 percent from a year earlier in April after falling 1.3 percent in March, which could indicate a delayed economic recovery, a business newspaper reported on Thursday.

... skip ...

China's electricity output declines have been narrowing after sinking 7.9 percent in the last month of 2008 and falling 11.7 percent in January.


Rather than a “delayed economic recovery”, it sounds more like an advancing depression.

China needs dollars or euro to buy oil. The only trade partner China has a surplus with is the US. Which means that the only currency they are going to acquire to buy oil is going to be $s. The US economy is headed for the “s*****r” in a hurry, and its imports with it. Once China has burned through its war chest, Chinese oil imports are going take a nose dive. Since oil is “absolutely” necessary to any economy, China at some point is going to have to sell its $ holding to raise currency reserves.

At that point the dollar falls off the table as the best bet for a reserve currency, and the US does a rapid progression down the rabbit hole. With power consumption down 19.6 in two months we can figure that Chinese GDP is not far behind.

With double digit declines in GDP, no trading partner to produce a surplus with, and falling reserve currencies with which to buy oil, it seems safe to assume that the Chinese Dragon will soon be coming down with a fatal case of Lizard Flu.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 19:25:55

China will get it's oil from Alberta. The Dirty Oil that Obama does not want. Up to 4 million barrels a day, out of Alberta via rail thru the deep water port of Prince Rupert BC. A full 2 days closer to Asia than any other port on the west coast of North America. This was announced last weekend. By the Blue Eyed Shieks of Alberta. The USA had best start looking for another 4 million barrels of oil from somewhere. Pretty Boy Obama don't like no Dirty Oil.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 19:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')i]“delayed economic recovery”

Call me when their power generation gets back up to May 2008 growth levels (i.e. never.)
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 19:27:45

For you Newcomes here Alberta has more Oil than Saudi Arabia, and that doesn't include Sasketchewan our sister Province.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 19:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'C')hina will get it's oil from Alberta.

Where will China get the customers for its exports from?

They are producing less electricity because they are manufacturing less stuff because their sales orders are down because the customers are all broke.

They don't need more oil, they need more customers.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 19:57:54

I don't really know. This was an article from a Calgary Alberta newspaper. From the centre of The Blue Eyed Shieks of Alberta. I assume that with Alberta's "Dirty Oil" that Pretty Boy Obama doesn't want that China will find lots of 3rd world customers for their copies of US Industrial junk bytheway Alberta has more coal than it has oil. Maybe their own people. Next will be Canada's bread baskets of grains. The western Provinces of Manitoba, Sasketchewan and Alberta grow more grain than any other place on earth. We also have the largest deposit of fertilizer in the world in Sasketchewan. Not to mention the largest deposit of Uranium in the world. And the largest supplier of clean hydro electricity in the world in Ontario/Quebec/Newfoundland. Which Pretty Boy Obama has not yet started to talk about. Maybe we will turn off all the lights in the eastern USA. By the way our banks are making record profits and haven't recieved any bailout funds yet. Nothing Nada. Our banks are safer than any of the exotic Swiss or Cayman Islands etc. And Alberta's Bank is the safest in the whole world. The Alberta Treasury Branch is backed by the largest oil deposit in the world, the largest coal deposits in the world, the largest herds of beef outside of Texas, and one of the largest grain harvests in North America. And you dumb ass Yanks have something to teach us. Not on your life. You guys are all talk and no cock.
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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Apr 2009, 21:30:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or you Newcomes here Alberta has more Oil than Saudi Arabia, and that doesn't include Sasketchewan our sister Province.


For all you late comers, Alberta has almost no oil. What it has is bitumen, sort of a greasy slim, dredged out of northern Canadian glacial sand deposits. You then add lots and lots of hydrogen to make a refinable petroleum (sort of). The hydrogen comes from NG. If I remember my calculations from last year it takes 19,000 mcf of NG to make 1 million barrels of almost refinable crude. Almost the entire monthly NG production of the US.

Then it takes lots and lots of water. Which they dump into immense scum ponds. The earth looks like a moonscape when they are finished, and the energy gotten out of it may not be as much as what the NG had before they started?

The natural gas they use is stranded gas, and there is a lot less of it than there is tar sands to process. Of course if the Canadian government puts down a few 10s of billions to build a 2500 mile pipeline over thawing and collapsing tundra, they can get gas from McKenzie up along the Hudson Bay. They can then destroy another chunk of land the size of Connecticut within the next 10 years. Sounds like a real winner doesn’t it?

Of course with oil at $40/b most of those projects are probably loosing money, but if it keeps GM’s Chinese plants in business one more year, who can complain about a little ecological devastation. The lunacy just goes on and on.

As far as all of that uranium in the Cameco mine up along McArthur River, if I remember, it produced a little more than a third of Canada’s total production. Well it did. It is has been flooded since last year when they broke into an underground river. CA’s uranium production has gone way, way down. If the history of flooded mines is any indication, it is likely to stay that way for a long, long time.

If the newest climate models are correct, that is the earth is snapping back into another 180 year period of cooling similar to the 1800s, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta will again be nothing more than what they have always been. Vast, barren, desolate pieces of moose pasture.



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Re: Asian Economic Engine Stalls Out

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 09 May 2009, 14:23:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Power Generation Declines: China's Recovery Is Lagging

By CSC staff, Shanghai
Published: May 06,2009

Power generation in China dropped again in April, indicating that the macroeconomic rebound the market has expected is yet to appear.

According to the State Grid’s latest statistics, April’s national power generation totaled 274.763 billion kwh, a fall of 3.55%, year on year, and a decline of over 3% from the previous month.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology says that in the first three months of this year, China’s power consumption totaled 780.990 kwh, down 4.02%, year on year, and power consumption in March alone totaled 283.389 kwh, down 2.01%.

... snip ...
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