by Denny » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 21:48:26
I am still trying to figure out the arithmetic behind the $15 billion cash infusion to Chrysler.
Even if one accepts that the job loss involved would pose a trauma to the U.S. economy and "something" had to be done, this use of money is illogical.
Let us say that the extended Chrysler "family" number about 130,000. People who work directly for Chrysler, its dealers and its parts suppliers. Lets also say, roughly, that the production capacity for autos is excessive, and by about the same amount of people over the U.S. economic landscape. Would it not make a lot more sense to support, at least for a while, those people and retrain them?
Now, if one were to say that the unemployment support and retraining would amount to $100,000 per worker, one can quickly calculate that such a program would cost $13 billion. But, instead that amount and more is going to keep the Chrysler ashes warm, hopefully to resurrect, Phoenix like, into a blossoming new and successful Chrysler.
But, in so doing, if we logically assume that overcapacity exists, then these Chrysler jobs will come at the expense of other jobs at GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc. And, their dealers. And, as for parts suppliers, if only so many cars and trucks are sold, regardless of the badge on the hood, its the same number and value of parts, more or less.
So, just what is being rescued by the cash infusion? The only jobs really being rescued, when you net out the economic effects, are those of the top brass as I see it. And, what if Chrysler does not resurrect itself, but continues to flounder and then sink, then that whole $13 billion has done nothing but buy a little more time on life support.
At least if the money went into redeployment of the workers involved for other, more valuable pursuits, the economy could come out ahead.