[tokyo_to_motueka]

interesting piece by Niall Ferguson from the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs:

Sinking Globalization

(available in full for free in the NYT, registration required)$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ORPEDOED--Ninety years ago this May, the German submarine U-20 sank the Cunard liner Lusitania off the southern coast of Ireland. Nearly 1,200 people, including 128 Americans, lost their lives. Usually remembered for the damage it did to the image of imperial Germany in the United States, the sinking of the Lusitania also symbolized the end of the first age of globalization.

From around 1870 until World War I, the world economy thrived in ways that look familiar today. The mobility of commodities, capital, and labor reached record levels; the sea-lanes and telegraphs across the Atlantic had never been busier, as capital and migrants traveled west and raw materials and manufactures traveled east. In relation to output, exports of both merchandise and capital reached volumes not seen again until the 1980s. Total emigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was in excess of 25 million. People spoke euphorically of "the annihilation of distance."

Then, between 1914 and 1918, a horrendous war stopped all of this, sinking globalization. Nearly 13 million tons of shipping were sent to the bottom of the ocean by German submarine attacks. International trade, investment, and migration all collapsed. Moreover, the attempt to resuscitate the world economy after the war's end failed. The global economy effectively disintegrated with the onset of the Great Depression and, after that, with an even bigger world war, in which astonishingly high proportions of production went toward perpetrating destruction.

It may seem excessively pessimistic to worry that this scenario could somehow repeat itself--that our age of globalization could collapse just as our grandparents' did. But it is worth bearing in mind that, despite numerous warnings issued in the early twentieth century about the catastrophic consequences of a war among the European great powers, many people--not least investors, a generally well-informed class--were taken completely by surprise by the outbreak of World War I. The possibility is as real today as it was in 1915 that globalization, like the Lusitania, could be sunk.

[twofiftyfive]

Also available registration free from truthout.

[airstrip1]

Thanks for posting the link.

I am afraid that the parallels with the period before the outbreak of the First World War are a little too close for comfort. In particular the creaking of existing alliances such as NATO and the dearth of enlightened world leadership means that any big global crisis would be difficult to contain. Sad to say, I sometimes miss the certainties of the old Cold War world when most issues could be settled by dialogue between Moscow and Washington. Nowdays I fear that events could easily run out of control.

[Tyler_JC]

Not true. The first round of Western Imperialism began in the Age Of Discovery. When Spain conquered South America in the 1500's-1600's, that was Imperialism I. It ended with the American Revolution. The New World was fully colonized except for the American West. The second big push came in the 1800's. The United States colonized the Western USA. The Scramble for Africa and the conquest of Asia was Imperialism II. The current trend, Globalization, is happening right now. We are taking advantage of cheap foreign labor. This is Imperialism III. It will end with Peak Oil and pricy transportation.

The future will see the collapse of Imperialism III, but it will be followed by the last cycle of Imperialism. Imperialism IV will be found in Africa and parts of Asia and South America. The USA, Europe, and China will start enslaving their neighbors and using them to make up for lost fossil fuel energy. The USA might not continue to exist as a country, but its wealthy citizens would be more than willing to use cheap foreign labor to work the land. This kind of Neo-Feudalism will become very popular with the landed classes. It will also become very common with the landless, but they won't enjoy it.

I dunno, just my thoughts on a possible future scenario.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')The USA, Europe, and China will start enslaving their neighbors and using them to make up for lost fossil fuel energy. The USA might not continue to exist as a country, but its wealthy citizens would be more than willing to use cheap foreign labor to work the land.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
The USA might not continue to exist as a country, but its wealthy citizens would be more than willing to use cheap foreign labor to work the land.

[Free]

I would rather be interested in the contrarian view of another "Foreign Affairs" article, which has the hypothesis that all the "imperial overstretch" theories regarding US-power are exaggerated and the fall of American power won't happen.
I strongly believe that the US are overstretched and at the brink of collapse, but since many people seem to believe this, and it seems to become a popular believe, it makes me suspicious and it's healthy to hear other opinions. Does anybody have a link to said article?