[lorenzo]

I found a simple fact that will affect oil consumption very strongly over the coming decades. It's called the Baby Boom. And many of us are overlooking its effect.

The "greying" of society happens quasi-simultaneously in the world's biggest oil consuming regions (the US, the EU, Japan). These three regions consume more than 75% of the world's oil. And these three regions all have retiring baby boomers, and declining populations (with the exception of the USA, but with the addition of Russia).

Now take a look at this statistic (pdf. page: 13, figure 16): oil consumption declines radically with age. People within the age bracket of 15 - 64 years old consume fuel for 36000 miles per year, people over 65years old consume for only 6000 miles per year, that's 6 times less!

Now leave me some time to calculate this more precisely, but one thing is certain: massive retirement implies massive reduction in oil consumption.

(Of course, pensioners make more holiday trips and may consume more than their younger counterparts on this specific front, but this can in no way be compared to the massive average reduction in fuel consumption).

How do you think this basic fact will affect the effects of peak oil?

[Specop_007]

My household puts ALOT of miles on a car. We bought a brand spankin new Jetta in September, As of now we're almost at 20,000 miles.
Horrid.

[UIUCstudent01]

What about China's boom in demand? I do believe they have a much larger population... If anything, China will suck it up. (Right?)

Although, as a nation, we might spend a little less on oil then.

[stu]

What about Asia though?

Their economies are still growing and with a middle class emerging they will be consuming more energy.

Surely the economic development of a third of the worlds population will wipe out the extra leeway that your theory gives us.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UIUCstudent01', 'W')hat about China's boom in demand? I do believe they have a much larger population... If anything, China will suck it up. (Right?)

Although, as a nation, we might spend a little less on oil then.

[rerere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') found a simple fact that will affect oil consumption very strongly over the coming decades. It's called the Baby Boom. And many of us are overlooking its effect.

[bart]

Interesting idea, lorenzo. I think the idea can be carried further.

You mentioned the Baby Boom, which is a phenomenon in the US, Europe and elsewhere. But according to what I've read, there is a long-term equivalent to the Baby Boom occuring now among the human population as a whole (including 3rd World Countries).

Just as the populations in industrialized countries have levelled off, despite the Baby Boom, so the world population will level off in about 2050, if present trends continue. The demographics of the world population would then resemble those of industrial countries like Europe and Japan -- fewer young people, more older people.

If this happens, your analysis would hold true for the world as a whole..

However, most of us expect Peak Oil to occur in the meantime. There are too many variables to be able to say specifically what the effects of PO would be, except that it would reduce the population even more.

==
And then to extend your argument in another way....

As an old guy, I've got to report that one's outlook changes as one passes 50. Not only does one drive less, but one wants fewer possessions. You have the appliances, tools, and books that you need, and you become attached to them. (And you don't want to have to learn the frustrating new technologies.) So, I think the statistics show a fall-off in purchases as one grows older. Fewer purchases = less oil used in manufacturing and transport.

You want to move to a smaller place, since you don't have kids anymore and it's hard to keep up a big place. Or you move in with other people, either family or other seniors. In any case, your housing needs are less.

Finally, one is not so caught up in raising a famiy or advancing in a career. One begins to have the leisure to think about the longer term, one wants to do something for the next generation. Volunteer work seems appealing.

We've never really had a society with such a high percentage of older people as we will be having in the future. Add that dramatic change to PO, and who can tell what the result will be.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rerere', 'A')ll that is being debated about Peak Oil is the date of peak and a whole lot more about the effect of Peak Cheap Energy.

[nocar]

Hm, I wonder - about the American statistics on oil consumption by the older people - is the oil consumption in going by air included? Or just car driving? I can imagine the older people are more likely to go by air than to drive long distances.

It is quite true that older people tend to buy less new things - that is why the economists in EU are so worried about our ageing population. Particularly they are less interested in new technology. GNP might not grow - and businesses might make less money. Horrid, horrid prospect. (Irony from my environmental perspective)

But - on the other hand there is the Middle East. Very high proportion young people. The same for India, with a giant population. How do you all think that will affect things?

nocar

[Enquest]

I think you don't understand something. The baby boom going grey is an other problem. The problem is that the become much older. That means you have to take care for them much longer. It they would die like in the old days there wouldn't be a real problem there.

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') found a simple fact that will affect oil consumption very strongly over the coming decades. It's called the Baby Boom. And many of us are overlooking its effect.

Now take a look at this statistic (pdf. page: 13, figure 16): oil consumption declines radically with age. People within the age bracket of 15 - 64 years old consume fuel for 36000 miles per year, people over 65years old consume for only 6000 miles per year, that's 6 times less!

How do you think this basic fact will affect the effects of peak oil?

[mididoctors]

the threshold average is above 64 yrs and shift into this bracket does not large enough compared with actual pop growth to offset increases significantly though this is a visual calculation..you may still lose

do some calculation

boris
London

[HonestPessimist]

Rising health care costs would be a very considerable factor in oil consumption and demands with the retiring and aging baby boomers.

Mark my words: Lot of ambulances, senior buses, tourist buses, cabs to ride those old baby-boomers around.



Edit: oops, fire trucks in case they have to respond to old people's houses back and forth.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')t would be interesting to compare projections of the effect of the rate at which Japan's population retires (and hence consumes less and less oil) and of China's increase in demand.

I have a feeling that they will balance each other out fairly well.

[leseulun]

When you talk about such remedial energy conservation ideas like this I would compare it to having a house that is flooding and on one end of the house you are trying to stop a leaky faucet while at the other end of the house you have a busted water line. We should of thought about this about 150 years ago and even then it would only prolong the inevitable.

[lorenzo]

I'm still researching this, but I would want to add two more provisional elements:

1. The US population is aging faster than expected, the US Census bureau announced today (here).

2. China's middle class is growing very very slowly. Only 1% of the total Chinese population (about 13 million Chinese - that's the population size of a micro country like Belgium) have enough money to buy a car, and this rate will increase by less than 1 million each year. Moreover, small to very small cars dominate the Chinese car market, and the trend is towards these small cars, not to bigger ones. The situation in India is comparable, only here even fewer people have enough income to actually own a car, and the pace at which the middle class is growing, is also slower than in China. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

What is really growing in both China and India is the GINI coefficients (inequality). That's what explains the fact that you have a skyrocketing general GDP, but a slow growth of the group of people who actually own a car. A smaller and smaller group of people is getting wealthier and wealthier, while the middle class is growing very slowly, and the vast underclass of people remains pretty poor.

So I think that the threat of the Chinese and Indian car consumer market on global oil demand is often exaggerated.

[rerere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'W')ell, we are discussing this "whole lot more" right here.

[OilyMon]

I think that the implication of an aging population must be considered, and I agree with the fact that not a lot of discussion has gone on about this subject on this forum. Good thread!

I agree with one of the previous posters (EntropyFails). One of the considerations needs to be how a new generation of geriatrics responds to their retirement.

The great depression had an enormous effect on the proportion of the population that is over 85 (born no later than 1920), and a slightly mitigated effect on people who had entered their young adult lives just at the end of the great depression around the start of the second world war. Can you imagine living your whole life with nothing and then being able to eat to your hearts content? The generation after the fogeys of today (the boomers) gorged on the planet. Enormous amounts of wealth were created and spread out fairly evenly at the time. It is this wealth that is going to allow the boomers to continue their gorging, although to a lesser degree than they once had.

There is also the after-boom - the generation that I am a part of - with parents born from about 1945 through 1955. As our grand parents parents die, our parents will in turn inherit their wealth. (which is considerable because alot of them hardly spent any of it!). I heard a figure that I will try to support on request, that a few trillion dollars will exchange hands over the next 15 years in inheritances as a result of old people (our parents/grand-parents) dying. When my grand-father bought his house it was worth $10,000 CAD. Now it's worth $250,000+ CAD conservatively, and my Mother will recieve her share of that to add to her equity.

Imagine that your in the middle of a mortgage, and sadly your parents die. Now you have an widened resource base from which to pay you bills. Every intelligent person will invest it in some way - most likely by eliminating the mortgage. Now, all of a sudden - you have an extra mortgage payment a month with which to play with. What do you do? Save it? Invest it? Spend it? Most likely a combination of the three, which increases the amount of petroleum that you require to operate your life.

Very soon a decline will start. It may not be a hard crash but all of those inheritances will definately decrease in value over time. Population dynamics will not suspend the rate of our use of oil.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilyMan', 'N')ow, all of a sudden - you have an extra mortgage payment a month with which to play with. What do you do? Save it? Invest it? Spend it? Most likely a combination of the three, which increases the amount of petroleum that you require to operate your life.