[Aaron]

This is exactly the kind of original, challenging discussion that is most useful in flushing out the primary concepts of any predictive idea.

Like peak oil.

I'm Aaron, & I endorse this discussion.

Excellent arguments presented this thread on all sides.

My Fav:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually, peak oil is a scientific theory published decades ago by a famous earth scientist.

Peak Oil has a testable hypothesis (i.e. that oil production peaks and then declines systematically), and in virtually every oilfield, oil province and oil-producing country outside of the ME so far the hypothesis has been proven true.

It remains to be seen if the peak oil theory will be proven again in the KSA and on a global basis. I bet it will be.

[WhatMeWorry]

Well I guess if we are all really "lucky", enough polar ice will melt to from the non existent global warming, flooding coastal areas and peak oil will be an after thought. Then maybe nukes can fly thinning the population and there will be plenty of oil. Maybe the second coming will happen prior to it all.

[raisinbran]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o your question - "is that really what is happening" isn't relevant to me, particularly.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', '
')Maybe I can help you see the light.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', '
')Maybe I can help you see the light.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', ' ')The only way YOU can actually verify it is by RESEARCHING the data. What if the data is manipulated? Well you're out of luck. Looks like you'll have to rely on good ole' IEA, EIA, ASPO, mike ruppert, matt simmons for your answers. Hell I don't even know them personally, you probably don't either.

[Micki]

Peak Oil is not a religion it is the new fad diet.
Pedal engined vehicles, homegrown carrots and cannibalism.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'P')eak Oil is the opposite of a religion--it's the natural extension of pure logic. Only folks with religious minds have a problem digesting the concept of peak oil.

[raisinbran]

Before you start tossing labels like troll around, at least read my first few posts, that I made more than a year ago. If you cursory read them you'll see that my perspectives have gradually shifted to where they are now since that time. Before I joined this site, I was actually a hard-core peak oiler. In fact, I even wrote a full-fledged, 30 page report on peak-oil for my thermodynamics class (it was open topic). It's sort of ironic looking back that I got credit for that,

If you're an athiest (I'm not), have you ever tried to convince someone that God doesn't exist, or challenge them to convince you that God does exists?

It becomes a childish game, really.

"I want you to PROVE, with HARD EVIDENCE, that God DOES NOT exist!"

"No, I want YOU to prove to me that God DOES exist!!!"

After point after counter-point, you both realize that, hey, there is no way to prove the existence of God one way or the other.

Are you expecting me to try to dis-prove peak oil somehow? Would you like me to start touting charts and figures, quoting agencies and reputable figures? You know well that you all, since you probably know every PO argument out there like the Lord's Prayer, that you will pick apartment my assertions, find some minor detail that you don't agree with, and discredit me.

No I'm not being emotional, I'm trying to embrace a broader viewpoint. I am also using logic, analysis, critical thinking, and synthesis, as I'm sure you are, otherwise you would be even more sheeplish like most of the population. I mean, you all question the mainstream media all the time, right? Scathing them for not reporting peak oil at all, wondering what is wrong with the rest of the world for not realizing peak oil, feeling like you are an independent thinker. When you try to tell someone about peak oil they deny it because they're closed minded and sheeple for not believing the cold hard facts, right?

The issue here is not really about math, science, proven or disproven theories, geological trends, and statistics. This might sound strange, hopefully you won't scoff at this, but it is about you. It is about how you see the world around you. It's about looking for the truth, a need that it seems we all have.

I dealt with this issue for a long time, I constantly strove and still do strive for truth, to get more accurate view of the world around me. For a time, I felt more enlightened, informed, more confident in my understanding, and or a long time it motivated me to share it with others. However, I have also realized, as I'm sure you have, that the vast majority don't really want more truth. And when you find a willing soul, you have to be very delicate and gradual in what you reveal.

Maybe that's why I'm here, to help share truth. I am a firm believer that truth does exist, and that it can be found. However, In a lot of my research I have come across lots of disinformation, deliberate information thrown out there for us, to cloud reality and distort the truth. Peak oil and global warming are examples of this disinformation.

So that is my philosophical two cents, maybe someone will hear it

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'I') will tell you that this world will be an utterly different place before that happens, and worrying about natural resources won't even matter.

What would you say if there is a plague, or nuclear war, or some crazy atrocity, and 3 billion people died? I think Peak oil will be a non-issue then, don't you think? Not trying to make predictions here, i'm just giving an example of what's really at stake. and it is so much more than OIL

[oxj]

Wow, a conversation on the epistemology of peak oil, which ends up being a pissing contest. Is no stone left unturned on this board?

[raisinbran]

Nope

Actually I posted my thread, and then I realized an almost identical thread was going on already =(

Now that I read more posts, looks like the board is starting to fall apart, and I merely took a bigger dump on it

I guess the jumpstart it needs is another oil price spike

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', '
')Now that I read more posts, looks like the board is starting to fall apart, and I merely took a bigger dump on it

[Quinny]

If what you had said was :

"I don't believe that peak oil is the main thing for us to worry about!"

or "I don't believe that peak oil will cause the problems that many of you foresee"

Then you would have a point that you could argue.

but what you actually said was "I don't believe in peak oil"... This statement means you think Oil supplies are limitless which is ludicrous.

Similarly the OP could have said that many of the doomerish predicitons are faith based rather than fact based and you might have had an argument. Instead 'Peak oil is a religion' is again clearly ludicrous.

Ludi hit the nail on the head and you didn't respond!

The only proving you need to do is to prove that your screename isn't a true description of you by admitting you got the title of the thread wrong and admitting that when you said "I don't believe in Peak Oil" you really meant something else!

BTW I don't agree with Planty that Peak Oil is a theory, the timing may be theoretical, but surely Peak Oil is just a description!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'B')efore you start tossing labels like troll around, at least read my first few posts, that I made more than a year ago. If you cursory read them you'll see that my perspectives have gradually shifted to where they are now since that time. Before I joined this site, I was actually a hard-core peak oiler. In fact, I even wrote a full-fledged, 30 page report on peak-oil for my thermodynamics class (it was open topic). It's sort of ironic looking back that I got credit for that,

If you're an athiest (I'm not), have you ever tried to convince someone that God doesn't exist, or challenge them to convince you that God does exists?

It becomes a childish game, really.

"I want you to PROVE, with HARD EVIDENCE, that God DOES NOT exist!"

"No, I want YOU to prove to me that God DOES exist!!!"

After point after counter-point, you both realize that, hey, there is no way to prove the existence of God one way or the other.

Are you expecting me to try to dis-prove peak oil somehow? Would you like me to start touting charts and figures, quoting agencies and reputable figures? You know well that you all, since you probably know every PO argument out there like the Lord's Prayer, that you will pick apartment my assertions, find some minor detail that you don't agree with, and discredit me.

No I'm not being emotional, I'm trying to embrace a broader viewpoint. I am also using logic, analysis, critical thinking, and synthesis, as I'm sure you are, otherwise you would be even more sheeplish like most of the population. I mean, you all question the mainstream media all the time, right? Scathing them for not reporting peak oil at all, wondering what is wrong with the rest of the world for not realizing peak oil, feeling like you are an independent thinker. When you try to tell someone about peak oil they deny it because they're closed minded and sheeple for not believing the cold hard facts, right?

The issue here is not really about math, science, proven or disproven theories, geological trends, and statistics. This might sound strange, hopefully you won't scoff at this, but it is about you. It is about how you see the world around you. It's about looking for the truth, a need that it seems we all have.

I dealt with this issue for a long time, I constantly strove and still do strive for truth, to get more accurate view of the world around me. For a time, I felt more enlightened, informed, more confident in my understanding, and or a long time it motivated me to share it with others. However, I have also realized, as I'm sure you have, that the vast majority don't really want more truth. And when you find a willing soul, you have to be very delicate and gradual in what you reveal.

Maybe that's why I'm here, to help share truth. I am a firm believer that truth does exist, and that it can be found. However, In a lot of my research I have come across lots of disinformation, deliberate information thrown out there for us, to cloud reality and distort the truth. Peak oil and global warming are examples of this disinformation.

So that is my philosophical two cents, maybe someone will hear it

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', '
')
Reality is not relevant? hmm...

Hey No hard feelings, when it comes to understanding things I am drifting seaborne along on the same wooden planks as you.... hell I only know surface knowledge of what is really really happening.

Why am I here? I don't know, to rant and rave I guess? I'm wasting enormous amounts of time with a crapload of stuff due tomorrow. I notice a lot of posts here are about what you did over the weekend, new boats & shoes, and Barack Obama. Granted, it is an open forum, but that means I can post whatever I damn well please, right? (with civility, of course )

But seriously guys, I mean, peak oil is not reality. Neither is global warming, for that matter. Maybe I can help you see the light.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o your question - "is that really what is happening" isn't relevant to me, particularly.

[SeaGypsy]

We are driving along, the gauge says halfish, it gets closer to empty as we drive. Running out eventually is a religion?
Like that 'bridge across forever' idiot who said Jesus likes flying biplanes and God gave him free fuel; then sold millions of books?
Kubler-Ross- Denial with a Vengance.
What bit of the bible do you believe? The whole thing?
Well sadly that is 100% impossible.
I won't bother with links just google 'contradictions in the bible' then tell us what you believe really and why God so blessed you with a bottomless tank RAISINBRAINTROLL

[raisinbran]

Look guys, to get the point of what I'm saying, I'll give you a list of "what-ifs". Yes I know nobody likes "what-ifs" because you can say "what-if [insert ANYTHING here]". "What-if a black hole formed in New-mexico, exploded into enormous gobs of petroleum and thus gave the earth a 5,000 year supply of light, sweet crude?" Yes I'm aware of this, don't remind me that anything can be what-if.

But just because anything can be hypothetical, doesn't diminish the value of asking "what-if" does it?

What if there are oil-fields the U.S. government, the Saudi's, etc. has sequestered for decades, untouched, vast hidden fields of oil?

What if the the actual data given by the IEA, EIA, are deliberately the wrong data for oil production? How do we know that the world is not producing 60 mil bpd, or 90 mil bpd? How exactly does one figure this out one their own?

What if the given data about how much oil consumed in the U.S., the world, is also cooked? If it is cooked by how much?

What if the financial system of the U.S. or world changes? All of a sudden it is so much cheaper, from a financial standpoint, to finance things like deep-water drilling or shale oil, whereas today the cost is prohibitive? For some reason the oil-field services becomes much cheaper, and we see an "oil bubble" of massive oil production?

What if the law of supply and demand is not as closely followed in this country as previously thought? How manipulated is the stock market, money credit markets, oil commodity markets, that would all affect the amount of oil field production?

What if Hubbard was not the only man in the entire earth to foresee something like "Peak Oil" decades ago? If it was so important for the entire world to know about peak oil, almost by biblical proportions (seems it means the end of the world), why did no one else even consider it until around 1999? I mean, people who can systematically kill millions of people, invent the most complicated of technology, not even think about something as simple as the notion of peak oil?


Let me clarify what i mean when I say peak oil is a religion, since it seems like people missed the point of my original post. It was touched on by someone else, the following of peak oil (LATOC) and in a more subdued fashion here, has become almost cultlike. The appeal of peak oil is that it's based on so called real facts and hard analysis of current world trends. Peak Oil the following is a religion, Peak Oil the theory, is, well, a theory. A flawed theory focusing on only a few world trends, which are questionable in and of themselves, ignoring the majority of the rest, namely the entire driving force of politics, and some of the important financial ones.

WHO CARES IF OIL FIELD PRODUCTION FOLLOWS A BELL CURVE? That does not tell me that the world will follow a bell curve UNDER ACTUAL WORLD CONDITIONS.

Let me put it this way, Peak Oil is sound scientific theory, it is real, it can happen, and will happen, ONLY IN THE FANTASYLAND YOU CALL THE WORLD. But it won't happen in the real, actual world, I can assure you.

It's kind of funny, when people say "when peak oil comes." People also say, 'When Jesus comes" "Reptilia from another planet come" They say that prophecies can only be seen fulfilled in hindsight. Let's see if the Peak Oil prophecy gets fulfillment.

Edited to add: I know that oil is finite, that it depletes, that there is a limit to population and growth, etc. However, this problem of resource depletion, while it is possible and real, will not actually happen, because the world will change before then. I don't argue that we are in for really hard times, feudalistic, but it won't be peak oil because that theory doesn't hold water in today's world.