[shortonoil]

k and m are constants that control the heigth and width of the curve. Search logistic curve to find a more detailed explanation.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')ohboi's question remains unanswered. (Due perhaps to Yesplease bizarre inability to understand net energy analysis)

[shortonoil]

Energy analysis is one of the most common and powerful tools used by physical scientists and engineers. It is used on an ongoing bases to solve problems that are otherwise undeterminable by common stochastic methods. Remarks concerning energy analysis’s lack of applicability merely demonstrate a lack of expertise about the subject by the commentator.

The Baseline Scenario

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��Simon Johnson is a former chief economist with the International Monetary Fund and is currently a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He, along with James Kwak, a former McKinsey consultant, is a co-founder of The Baseline Scenario (http://www.baselinescenario.com) which is a blog dedicated to explaining what happened in the global economy and what we can do about it.”

[shortonoil]

For those of you who find discussions concerning the monetary consequences of our debt based fiat currency system confusing, Mish provides a short course that is excellent.
Mish

You’ve got to love this quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's pretty amazing if you think about it: Credit is extended with 30-50 times leverage on inherently worthless paper.

[dohboi]

Thanks for the clearing up my questions about k and m. The rest of your analysis makes it pretty clear that the pundits that are declaring a bottom to the financial crisis are talking out of their you-know-whats.

Is still do wonder if there could be one last fake-out pseudo-recovery for a few months or years before we really get into steep decline. Aren't there a bunch of mega-projects due to come on line in the next couple years? Have they all been mothballed? It seems like some folks over at TOD and elsewhere are thinking that things get really serious in more like 2013 or a bit later. Not that a few months really makes much of a difference in the big scheme of things.

[shortonoil]

dohboi said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s still do wonder if there could be one last fake-out pseudo-recovery for a few months or years before we really get into steep decline. Aren't there a bunch of mega-projects due to come on line in the next couple years?

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency (IEA) may revise downward its forecast of a 21% fall in global energy sector investment, its chief economist Fatih Birol, said on Monday. Oil producers may have canceled or delayed $170 billion worth of investment in recent months.

[shortonoil]

This was also posted on 06/08/09 in the Umployment thread of E&F.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have not yet posted the updates reflecting the $170 billion number in the AE thread, but will post them here:

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'O')n 04/07/09 in the Available Energy thread I posted a revision which reflects the expected decline in GDP which also takes into consideration the reduction in exploration and development that has been reported. These reductions in E&D will increase the energy supply to the general economy and mitigate the decline in GDP while those reductions continue.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
World
Year GDP %
‘08 (4.2)
‘09 (4.6)
‘10 (5.0)
‘11 (7.1)

** all figures year end results and assume a static money supply
')

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Last time I heard, thermodynamics is not a "little model." I am so very very sorry that the real, non-virtual world trumps voodoo economics.

[shortonoil]

SS said:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If Shorts model does not match reality, there is a reason for it, and to make it work better, he needs to find out what it is.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'R')ead the introduction! The relationship was defined by Cleveland in his paper.

[prestonwatson]

Hi short,
Is this the one you were willing to update:

In particle physics, the available is the energy in a particle collision available to produce new matter from the kinetic energy of the colliding particles. Since the conservation of momentum must be held, a system of two particles with a net momentum may not convert all their kinetic energy into mass - and thus the available energy is always less than or equal to the kinetic energy of the colliding particles. The available energy for a system of one stationary particle and one moving particle is defined as:

E_a = \sqrt{2 m_t c^2 E_m + (m_t c^2)^2 + (m_k c^2)^2}

where

mt is the mass of the stationary target particle,
mk is the mass of the moving particle,
Em is the kinetic energy of the moving particle, and
c is the speed of light.

Time for another reality check!

According to shortonoil's little model here, US GDP should have contracted by 5.9% or 4.2% in 2008, depending on the assumption.

It should also have contracted by either 6.3% or 4.6% in 2009, again depending on the assumption.

But reality sez . . .

LINKY - scroll to near the bottom of the page.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eal GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual
level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.

[sparky]

.

Oil finder , I guess some hard ribbing is in order and well deserved too

but things are not exactly rosy

there is a pretty good argument to be made that the recent divine surprise on the stock market
is fueled by government debt .
As for the rising price of commodities , including the pretty strong oil price
since the economies are not so flash ,
it would indicate a lot of loose money buying anything not bolted down

anyone predicting 100$ per barrel by year end might be wrong , but not absurdly so

That is going to create a fair bit of demand destruction around the shopping malls

.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')anyone predicting 100$ per barrel by year end might be wrong , but not absurdly so

That is going to create a fair bit of demand destruction around the shopping malls
.

[sparky]

.

The critical factor is NOT the price of the gallon of gas ,
I know Americans are obsessed by it but oil is used in pretty much everything from feedstock in the chemical industry to transport of products and services , an increase in its price percolate through the whole economy often in a multiplying effect
Any country which import the stuff has to work harder to pay for the same amount
it create a shrinking of domestic value ,
people think it's inflation but it would be more realistic to think of running faster to have the same income ,
I.E. the big Mac is the same , only the price number change

The effect can be dramatic , from past experience , a doubling of the price shrink the economy by ~5%
that means a recession , that means no jobs , that means the service sector and discretionary spending is hammered , which means more people on the dole , ultimately the whole economy stabilize itself at a new level of poverty after a few years and , if things are stable , some suppressed spending create a growth pulse .

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I')t just seems to fly in the face of what we have seen out of consumer behavior for the last 5 years, and the last 6 months especially.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I')t just seems to fly in the face of what we have seen out of consumer behavior for the last 5 years, and the last 6 months especially.