Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 06 Mar 2009, 09:46:04

Well, just now at 0835 on CNN "Mind your Money" I heard one of the bubbley hostesses say after explaining the great transition in 1949 from a war to a peace time economy -

"What we have happening is similar to 1949. We are having a huge transition from a 30 year debt-based economy transitioning to something more sustainable."

She then went on to talk about how huge the bubble is across the economy fueled by the debt and describe what some of the effects would be.

One of the big ones was whether companies lay-off or cut pay and benefits and retain more workers. Personally, I could live with and would do my job with much less than they pay me (don't tell my employer !). The problem is, companies (at least like mine) are not set up to reduce salaries. It's kind of a foreign concept. The political debate is of course what the roll of government is during the transition. Should it interject itself to try for an orderly transition or get out of the way and let the pieces fall ?
User avatar
dinopello
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6088
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: The Urban Village

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby HeckuvaJob » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 16:23:00

Bad Bank

The collapse of the banking system explained, in just 59 minutes. Our crack economics team—the guys who explained the mortgage crisis, Alex Blumberg and NPR’s Adam Davidson—are back to help all of us understand the news. For instance, when we talk about an insolvent bank, what does it actually mean, and why are we giving hundreds of billions of dollars to rich bankers who screwed up their own businesses? Also, two guys go to New Jersey to look at a toxic asset.

Prologue.

Host Ira Glass plays clips from TV in a recent senate hearing and talks about how confusing the current banking crisis is. But fortunately today, we have the team that brought us our show that explained the mortgage crisis a year ago, back to explain entire the banking system in 40 minutes. (3 minutes)

Act One. The Collapse of the US Banking System Explained in Just 39 Minutes.

Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson tackle a very tough subject: trying to explain exactly what a bank is and does. They talk to a number of experts about what has gone wrong in banking, but not before bringing us all up to speed on some banking basics, like understanding a bank balance sheet, and a bank’s assets and liabilities, and the squishy business of what banks say about their balance sheets compared to what they are.

Alex and Adam walk us step by step through the complications of the US government buying up bad assets from banks, and explain why, when it comes to footing the bill, the government might just prefer to not be in charge of the very banks it is having taxpayers bailout. From a dollhouse, to a hypothetical bank worth tens of dollars, to the trillions of dollars being spent to keep banks afloat, Alex and Adam talk economy, and where we might be headed. (39 minutes)

Act Two. Clean Up Crew.

Not everyone hates the idea of “toxic assets.” Reporter Lisa Chow goes to New Jersey to follow two guys on their quest to clean up some of America’s bad mortgages—by buying them, and going straight to the homes themselves to have a look at how dire the situation really is. (13 minutes)

Song: "The House Song," Peter, Paul and Mary
User avatar
HeckuvaJob
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 326
Joined: Sat 09 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby HeckuvaJob » Fri 13 Mar 2009, 09:25:45

Elizabeth Warren: Foreclosures Threaten Economy
Fresh Air from WHYY, March 9, 2009 · According to a report issued Mar. 6, 2009 by the Congressional Oversight Panel charged with monitoring the use of bailout funds, the rate of home foreclosure is now three times its historic rate — "so large that it threatens the entire economy."

Panel chairwoman Elizabeth Warren joins Fresh Air to discuss the foreclosure problem — and what can be done about it.

The Congressional Oversight Panel was created in October 2008 to oversee the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Warren was appointed chairwoman in the panel's first meeting. In December 2008, Warren criticized the bailout program for lacking a clear direction or approach.

Warren is a Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law School and the co-author of The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers & Fathers Are Going Broke, which she wrote with her daughter in 2003.
User avatar
HeckuvaJob
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 326
Joined: Sat 09 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby HeckuvaJob » Fri 13 Mar 2009, 09:28:05

Simon Johnson On Bank Bailout Plan
Fresh Air from WHYY, March 3, 2009 · Simon Johnson helped shape the International Monetary Fund's response to worldwide financial turmoil as the organization's economic counselor and director of the research department, a position he held from March 2007 until August 2008.

Now a professor of entrepreneurship at MIT's Sloan School of Management, Johnson is also the co-founder of BaselineScenario.com, a Web site that chronicles the global economic and financial crisis.

Johnson joins Fresh Air to analyze the bank bailout plan and its alternatives.
User avatar
HeckuvaJob
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 326
Joined: Sat 09 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby pgrass101 » Fri 13 Mar 2009, 09:50:55

I am surprise that so much attention is being paid to the debt level and bad investments made by banks, consumers and goverments..... sure this are the cause of our current crsis but ......

I see the roots of this crsis being in the spike in energy prices. I believe that if oil hadn't reached $147 a barrel we would not have fallen so far so fast.
pgrass101
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:50:47

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby phaster » Sun 15 Mar 2009, 19:28:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kuidaskassikaeb', '
')
Yes I agree. I have this argument with my brother, who actually is a trained economist, all the time. I think I even used something close to your physics argument once, and we do all wear tin hats, according to him. They do, however, write out equations all the time, events just don't fit the terms too well. To use a metaphore, economics is a tool box with one or two tools. They can be very powerful, but they don't even really explain economics, although they can explain why abortion reduces crime. You don't seem to be the kind of person who likes to be confined inside of small boxes so it does't surprize me that you find economics constricting.

I was really trying to figure out in my own mind weather this contraction was internal to the economic system, or the first hit of peak oil. Krugman convinced me that it was economics alone, but it really is an academic point.


if ya want to blow your brother's mind, try this other radical thought I had a few years back, in sound bite form my theory is, "War is good, peace is bad (for the environment)!" A more nuanced explanation is the war on terrorism (which thus far has been limited in scope) is good for the environment, because of decreased global consumption. Conversely peace and prosperity is bad for the environment, because people have an opportunity to accumulate wealth which fuels conspicuous consumption within all social-economic levels of society.

http://www.phaster.com/war_is_good/

If I were to place my self in a small box according to some category, I'd say profess allegiance to "Ecological Economics" which is pretty much on no one's radar screen in the "MSM" or "mainstream media.

http://www.uvm.edu/giee/




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pgrass101', 'I') am surprise that so much attention is being paid to the debt level and bad investments made by banks, consumers and goverments..... sure this are the cause of our current crsis but ......

I see the roots of this crsis being in the spike in energy prices. I believe that if oil hadn't reached $147 a barrel we would not have fallen so far so fast.


here is some food for thought, debt levels are important because when existing debt is too high for the system to sustain, its impossible to create or extend credit to maintain energy infrastructure.

for example because of falling oil prices the IEA estimated that projects worth $100 billion have been shelved; combined with faster decline in rates of production at existing fields will aggravate the energy situation. At the "super giant" oil fields, the IEA estimates a 3.4 per cent per annum decline after reaching peak production. FYI no "super giant" oil fields have been discovered since the 1980s and many are far older. At the merely "large" oil fields the estimated decline rate is 10.4 per annum, according to annalists. These decline rates may change depending upon enhanced oil recovery techniques, and credit conditions
truth is,...

www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
User avatar
phaster
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 513
Joined: Sun 15 Jul 2007, 03:00:00

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby pgrass101 » Mon 16 Mar 2009, 09:58:36

So is it your belief that a flagging economy is going to hide oil production problems, either by hiding the peak or through failing to maintain the oil field infrastructure?

This would be interesting to see if as demand picks up it hits a lower ceiling than before the economic crisis
pgrass101
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:50:47

Re: how do you explain what's happening in the economy

Unread postby phaster » Sun 05 Apr 2009, 22:33:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pgrass101', 'S')o is it your belief that a flagging economy is going to hide oil production problems, either by hiding the peak or through failing to maintain the oil field infrastructure?

This would be interesting to see if as demand picks up it hits a lower ceiling than before the economic crisis




Sadly IMHO a flagging economy is going to "distract" most everone from declining oil production problems! Have been looking at oil production and declining consumption (in the USA during the periods of 1973-1974 and 1979-1982), and what I see from the data is this time around (so far), the overall demand drop off is not as dramatic percentage wise.

However price wise the fall off in prices is very dramatic, which I tend to believe is because the leverage used right now is very much higher than in the past. For example it looks like Glencore which is a BIG commodity player had to unwind some big positions

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11 ... -edge.html

which I think could acount for the dramatic fall in the price of oil. Basically the BIG global pool of money (lots of it borrowed) was betting that oil would keep on going up, but since people were so leveraged they could not afford even a 5% downward price in oil because at a 20:1 leverage, that would wipe them out. From what I've seen that kinda 20:1 leverage historically is high, but during the subprime "thinking" era, that was the norm.

The reason oil prices fell so far so quickly is because there were so many sellers and very very very few buyers.

IMHO we're in a very interesting period of human history because we have seen the peaking of economic expecations. Basically people the world over are no longer going to dream big and will not be able to borrow to live high on the hog!

Over time oil infrastructure is going to decay thus decreasing supply. The light sweet crude which was in vast shallow easy to extract pressurized oil fields will be a fond distant memory within 10 years if current global trends continue.

Anyone remember the '80's movie top gun? Well there was a line in that movie that is very appropriate for this economic clusterfuck!

"Son, your ego is writing checks your body can't cash."

Basically IMHO what I see is a great majority of people had over estimated their future economic ability to borrow, then there is a little problem that few people in the USA have thought about and that is the BIG looming problem of unfunded mandates (specifically medicare and medicade) which was just covered by the PBS program frontline when they did a recent story titled "10 trillion and counting"

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... lion/view/
truth is,...

www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
User avatar
phaster
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 513
Joined: Sun 15 Jul 2007, 03:00:00

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron