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Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby PeakKYJelly » Sun 17 Apr 2005, 14:39:19

Another possibility is that someone invented/discovered an alernative energy source years or decades ago, but it's not as profitable as oil. Then, when oil runs out, *poof*, all of a sudden someone will announce his "new" energy source, and civilization will be saved.
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Unread postby some_guy282 » Mon 18 Apr 2005, 00:30:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', 'A')nother possibility is that someone invented/discovered an alernative energy source years or decades ago, but it's not as profitable as oil. Then, when oil runs out, *poof*, all of a sudden someone will announce his "new" energy source, and civilization will be saved.


If oil "runs out" what energy source are we going to use to manufacture this new miracle technology en masse? We need oil to manufacture the alternatives, and about 20 or 30 years (at least) lead time before the peak to avoid any crisis. We don't have 20 or 30 years. The most optimistic and realistic estimates put the peak ten years away at most. Those estimates have been getting closer and closer all the time as new data becomes availabe. When I first found out about Peak Oil a year ago, the estimates put it at 2012 - 2015. Then it was moved to about 2007 - 2010. Now it's 2007 at the very latest that we'll start to see shortages, and possible we're at the peak already.

And I don't think you've addressed the point I made at the beginning of this thread. So what if we find a solution to peak oil. Peak Oil is only a symptom of a larger problem, and that larger problem is exponential growth. The worst thing that could happen to us is discovering an energy source better than oil and continueing the system of growth. I remember Richard Heinberg saying that if Zero Point were real and we transitioned to it right now, it would mean the end of humanity. There would be no survivors. We could consume the entire planet until there is nothing left.
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 05:24:29

yes. me
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Re:

Unread postby Beery1 » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 06:52:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakKYJelly', 'A')nother possibility is that someone invented/discovered an alernative energy source years or decades ago, but it's not as profitable as oil. Then, when oil runs out, *poof*, all of a sudden someone will announce his "new" energy source, and civilization will be saved.


This is magical thinking at its most obvious - 'someone' will have found an energy source, kept it quiet, then when oil runs out, 'abracadabra' and we're fine.
"I'm gonna have to ask you boys to stop raping our doctor."
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 06:58:41

Flogging a dead horse beery, check the dates; memoe is just bored.
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 07:48:55

The magical energy sources often promoted by the masterminds of the peak oil con job are solar and wind.
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 13:02:13

It depends upon what you mean by technology and upon what constitutes salvation. Certainly the absolute basket of alternative technologies can supply a certain amount of electricity to mankind on this planet. The trick is, that amount is nothing like the extravagant level man has gotten used to using first coal, then oil, then natural gas. Only people with a death wish, or a death delusion cannot see the truth that we aren't heading for total destruction. What constitutes some form of power down is not 'total destruction'.

That being said, would the discovery of what energy is by definition other than, 'the ability to do work', necessarily be a technological thing? Was the discovery of relativity a technological thing? Neither would this kind of thing qualify as an energy source, not technically. All it would do would be to allow us to understand how to manipulate the cosmos in order to make energy from what, nothing, time, matter?
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 13:25:37

Not quite seagypsy, kublikan wanted me to dredge the old posts. I couldn't resist a post on this one, since alternative energy is something I've investigated long and hard. There are plenty of alternative energy sources. But the ultimate source of energy was discovered in principles and experiments of the 1930s. Nuclear power. It's something I'm still reading about today. My current estimate is that we've got at least 10 billion years worth of nuclear energy with todays technology and understanding, but the TPTB don't like it cos a world with fully installed nuclear fusion would be a world where everyone is effectively millionares in energy.
In other words humans have already solved the energy problem FOR EVER !!!
I'm convinced.
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Re: Does anyone think technology can save us from Peak Oil?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Feb 2013, 13:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')That being said, would the discovery of what energy is by definition other than, 'the ability to do work', necessarily be a technological thing? Was the discovery of relativity a technological thing? Neither would this kind of thing qualify as an energy source, not technically. All it would do would be to allow us to understand how to manipulate the cosmos in order to make energy from what, nothing, time, matter?

Evil, this is an excellent point. You're talking about a complete paradigm shift.

There are also partial shifts -- going somewhere between where we are now (mostly burning fossil fuels) and, say, Star Trek with "magical devices".

The integrated chip is one example. For a LONG time, leaders in computer technology like IBM were trying to make computers more and more powerful (faster) by using more POWER. The failing Josephson Junction technology was trying to essentially super-cool a mainframe to force computing to the next level. Obviously this would have used a TON of energy, been very expensive, and I have trouble even visualizing all the likely classes of maintenance issues. Instead, the microprocessor made the trick using LESS and LESS energy and shrinking things as the main goal, and lo and behold computers became much more powerful for decades.

For energy, a nice mid-point technology would be reliable hot fusion. Unfortunately, the guesses on when (or if) this will be viable, are all over the lot. But it would at a minimum buy us a LOT of time and make burning fossil fuels for energy largely obsolete, once the electric grid could be built out.

It would be ironic if we discover this only AFTER the climate is so screwed up it is obvious we are all doomed, even to the far right science denialist max-profit-at-ANY-cost crowd (which would be my guess based on how things are going), but what can you do? -- the planet is run by humans.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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