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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Economists and Oil Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Analyst: Oil could hit $20/barrel

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 10:06:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')oo low price ... implies a significantly reduced consumption of the resource.
Which comes first, low price or reduced consumption? Or it doesn't matter?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Analyst: Oil could hit $20/barrel

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 10:18:14

If you compare the fall in the price of oil to the fall in the price of corn, you have a 55% drop in oil prices and a 50% drop in corn prices during a similar time frame.

Gold prices have dropped 26%.

It seems like money is disappearing creating a freefall in commodity prices. I do expect the fall in oil and fall in gold to balance out, whether that means oil will rise or gold will fall, I don't have a clue.
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Re: Analyst: Oil could hit $20/barrel

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 14:03:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')oo low price ... implies a significantly reduced consumption of the resource.
Which comes first, low price or reduced consumption? Or it doesn't matter?


Thats a great question! Right now I can garauntee that reduced price is not related completely to reduced demand. Some of it is, but the majority of recent price moves down is because of historic deleveraging. When that stops, and that's anyone's guess as to when, oil will probably move back higher barring catastrophic loss of demand. That is not indicated by past recessions.

This recent rapid fall in price will result in some demand returning. The million dollar question is how much and how fast? I'd guess that once we go below 2$/gal it comes back quite quickly even in a recession.

The one thing I'm not afraid to make statements about at the moment is that demand reductions do not support the price moves as of late. The volatility is due to other dynamics at the moment and may have a very deep impact on the effects and rates of decline directly tied to Peak Oil.
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John Ikerd: An Economist Talks About Farming ca 2050

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Mar 2009, 14:59:08

Yea, I know that title was a tease, but I just saw some new papers from John Ikerd I thought I'd share.
He's an ag economist who's been writing about PO peripherally for quite some time but is really hitting it and GW hard in his old age. He blends it in seamlessly with his old rants about ag chemicals, CAFOs, corporate monopolies and the role of small farms, grass farming, local food, small towns, etc. as a path to sustainability and food security.
You'd think he'd been lurking here... :wink:

Small Farms in the year 2050

http://web.missouri.edu/~ikerdj/papers/

Podcast Interview from Home Sweet Farm
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: An Economist Talks About Farming ca 2050

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 26 Mar 2009, 15:14:28

Doesn't he know all farming will be done in skyscrapers? :)
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Re: An Economist Talks About Farming ca 2050

Unread postby blukatzen » Thu 26 Mar 2009, 17:08:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'D')oesn't he know all farming will be done in skyscrapers? :)

Yes, but like this! YouTube :lol:
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Jeff Rubin: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby deMolay » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 17:44:08

This is the original economist to predicted oil at over $100/barrel. He thinks Peak Oil is so big he quit his Big Job and wrote a book to warn people of the consequences. http://www.thespec.com/News/Business/article/538631#
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby bencole » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 18:00:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'T')his is the original economist to predicted oil at over $100/barrel. He thinks Peak Oil is so big he quit his Big Job and wrote a book to warn people of the consequences.

I figure most people higher up in banks and financial institutions are well aware of peak oil and resource depletion, good for him that he has the nerves to speak out on the issue.
Also shows the difference between a Canadian bankster and an American Bankster, one quits in protest to speak out on something like peak oil, the other takes a bailout and a bonus to maintain the status quo.
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 18:19:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', 'A')lso shows the difference between a Canadian bankster and an American Bankster, one quits in protest to speak out on something like peak oil, the other takes a bailout and a bonus to maintain the status quo.

Based upon one example? Is this a case of Canadian logic?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby bencole » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 18:28:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ased upon one example? Is this a case of Canadian logic?

For the record, to date zero Canadian banks and banksters have received bailout money vs almost all American banks and banksters. Just an observation. http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/03/2 ... ngton.html
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 18:43:40

Almost all? Actually I believe the data is protected (not that I am happy about that) and we do not know how many banks have. Is that a case of Canadian research?

Oh and much of the money has been paid out to foreign banks to pay for our bad bets. Is this an example of Canadian gratitude? And what does it really matter to you how we destroy our country? Is this a case of the Canuk-man's burden?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 18:58:08

Let me be clear, I am more than happy to accept whatever the de-regulated financial services market of the United States may deserve for this crisis. But lets keep the moralizing "Our bankers are more righteous that yours" in the manure pile where it belongs.

One case does not prove a trend. Does Matthew Simmons prove that American oilmen are more righteous than Canada's? No. It is an assertion that cannot be proven or falsified.

Canada has different regulations and perhaps we could have a nice enlightening conversation about the costs and benefits of the American and the Canadian model. We might even decide, after conversation not on a couple of assumptions, that one is better than the other. Heck, we might say the Canadian system is better and one that should serve as a model, but that does not mean that one group is more upright than the other.

If we could than I would just re-tort that american bus riders are more mentally stable then Canadian bus riders. CNN After all, we only need one case right?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby bencole » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:06:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'A')lmost all? Actually I believe the data is protected (not that I am happy about that) and we do not know how many banks have. Is that a case of Canadian research?
Perhaps I will state it another way, the entire American banking system has received a bailout to save it from implosion, courtesy of your hard earned tax dollars. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')h and much of the money has been paid out to foreign banks to pay for our bad bets. Is this an example of Canadian gratitude?
Why should someone have gratitude for the "privilege" of lending to the USA? American's took the money to fund their selfish consumer lifestyles, and now the game is up, it's time to pay like everyone else.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd what does it really matter to you how we destroy our country?

Sometimes it's best to learn from other's mistakes.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s this a case of the Canuk-man's burden?

Never heard that one before, but I think you'll find that most Canadians are genuinely concerned about the fate of their friendly neighbors to the south.
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby sameu » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:12:28

if even economists start writing books about peakoil the end must be very nearby :lol:
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:21:36

And I can admit when I make a logical fallacy; the pointing out of which was my entire point. Can you?

Oh, you may lend money to the government (which says something about your judgment not your generosity) and is not the subject of this current crisis.

But the money we are supporting our banks so they can pay back were bets not loans. Our banks lost the bets to the other banks but they were all gamblers.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:29:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut the money we are supporting our banks so they can pay back were bets not loans. Our banks lost the bets to the other banks but they were all gamblers.

All loans are bets as long as you expect an interest payment on a loan. You are betting you will make money by loaning money.Its Gambling by another name.
Last edited by ReverseEngineer on Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:31:38, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby bencole » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:29:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut lets keep the moralizing "Our bankers are more righteous that yours" in the manure pile where it belongs.
If you notice carefully I try to use the word "bankster" in place of "banker", it's a combination of the word banker and gangster, I'm using it for a sense of humour, It's not meant to be a flattering term. Relax a little.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne case does not prove a trend. Does Matthew Simmons prove that American oilmen are more righteous than Canada's? No. It is an assertion that cannot be proven or falsified.
Since nobody said anything about righteousness I don't know why you are bringing it up, it's simply an interesting observation that happens to correlate with the manner in which the canadian banklng system is regulated vs the American system.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada has different regulations and perhaps we could have a nice enlightening conversation about the costs and benefits of the American and the Canadian model. We might even decide, after conversation not on a couple of assumptions, that one is better than the other. Heck, we might say the Canadian system is better and one that should serve as a model, but that does not mean that one group is more upright than the other.
It has nothing to do with upright or moral. Simply put, on account of recent events the Canadian banking system having tighter regulations has proven to be superior to the American system having little regulation, Americans have constantly been critical of regulation in Canada as being socialist, but now Americans have what amounts to a nationalized banking system, far more socialist than anything in Canada.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we could than I would just re-tort that american bus riders are more mentally stable then Canadian bus riders. CNN After all, we only need one case right?

Now I would call that off topic and poorly researched, He wasn't Canadian, he was from China.
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut the money we are supporting our banks so they can pay back were bets not loans. Our banks lost the bets to the other banks but they were all gamblers.
All loans are b]bets [/b]as long as you expect an interest payment on a loan. You are betting you will make money by loaning money. Its Gambling by another name.

:roll: Sure all loans are "bets" but that does not mean that all bets were loans. Unless you really expect me to buy that there is no difference between credit default swaps, a morgague (never could remember how to spell that word), the roulette wheel and my telling a neighbor that they can pay me for the eggs next time I see them.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:42:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', ' '):roll: Sure all loans are "bets" but that does not mean that all bets were loans. Unless you really expect me to buy that there is no difference between credit default swaps, a morgague (never could remember how to spell that word), the roulette wheel and my telling a neighbor that they can pay me for the eggs next time I see them.

As long as you don't charge your neighbor interest if he pays you next time, there is no problem with loaning him some eggs. Its only when you seek to make a PROFIT by loaning money that you run into problems.

CDS contracts are a Gamble, you take insurance premiums betting the company will not fail from many people. If the company does fail, you have to pay out on all your bets. If MANY companies fail all at the same time, you are in a world of Expletive deleted.. Read that AIG. Its not a whole lot different thant the Roulette Wheel, AIG just was gambling the ONE instance on a big wheel where everybody fails at the same time would not happen. Normally its just a game of Red-Black, but there is the one spot on the Wheel where its neither red or black, EVERYBODY LOSES. Except if you bet on the everybody loses scenario, which nobody does because they think the odds agaisnt it are too small. Its gonna happen though eventually always, it always does with Capitalism. Its crashes with regularity, just you can never quite be sure precisely when. If you could know that, then you would be insulated from any risk at all. That would not be gambling of course. That would be a rigged wheel.
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Re: CIBC's Chief Economists Quits/Warns of Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 29 Mar 2009, 19:52:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '[')b]Also shows the difference between a Canadian bankster and an American Bankster, one quits in protest to speak out on something like peak oil, the other takes a bailout and a bonus to maintain the status quo.

No morality implied there :roll: You could simply say "no, I can not admit it when I say something logically unsound." Have fun with your moralizing.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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