[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'T')he trucking industrial system is not going to stop,, yes there is trucking companies going in BK and others shutting there doors and will be some delivery problems but others will open up with little debt and others will come out of there BK better and stronger..

It is not the cannery in the mine shaft,, just business problems that are coming about but it will work it self out as always,, Don't Fear What You Cant Control..

[the48thronin]

While SOME trucking will probably survive... the JIT system cannot...

good luck eating those chips.....

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '
')
The Government has the right to control all trucking under FEMA if TSHTF.. but they cannot resurect dead businesses.
...

Do not think all those trucks will be parked in neat rows waiting for someone to need them. 2 weeks ago the truck stops were full of trucks seeking loads, many of those trucks are now on the way to liquidation forced or voluntary. and still there is over capacity, rinse and repeat.

[skeptik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')It is not the cannery in the mine shaft,,

[timmac]

Oopps I meant Canary.. LOL

[vision-master]

The trucking industry was deregulated in 1980. Have your cake and eat it.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'T')he trucking industry was deregulated in 1980. Have your cake and eat it.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'I') hope you have plenty of anything you might want to use to survive...

[Quinny]

Yes - there is some disconnect, but I take your arguments and see it is an indication of the collapse of the financial aspects of the JIT/trucking system. The companies may no longer exist, but the trucks (and many of the drivers) will. In the current crisis there will also be fuel to make them run (maybe next time round it may be different). The missing ingredient is money, but IMO the whole financial system is FUBAR anyway.

If the truckers want to eat they'll have to drive and if the Government wants to distribute food, it'll have to feed the truckers!


BTW I do agree that financial constraints will result in stock being piled in different locations than it currently is.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')'ve always thought that the breakdown in JIT food distribution is one of the biggest problems we face WTSHTF.

Would an alternative interpretation of the above however not be that there is surplus capacity in the system that can be plugged in to deliver emergency goods if TSHTF.

I take your pont that there are shifts in where goods are stored, but doesn't mean there are less overall.

[Cloud9]

So, when will Wally World run out of bread?

[mgibbons19]

Thanks to the OP for this discussion, and please be so kind as to keep it current. I have no window into the trucking industry, so your input is valuable

As this problem matures, and equipment is mothballed, what are the effects of that if/when that equipment is needed? What would be needed to rebuild those businesses if/when needed?

[vtsnowedin]

I think the case is being over stated here. Instead of the canary being the O/O truckers it is the lack of orders for goods that need to be shipped. I know of no order that has been placed that isn't being filled. Even the dog food example is more likely to be a store manager over reacting to the downturn and ordering less stock. Did he think people would stop feeding their pet's? Sure the O/Os are on the tip of the trucking industry and the first to get idled when volume drops but they will be the first to be called when orders return. When that happens they will have to change those tires and do other maintenance they are putting off now and in turn create an order for tires that have to be trucked.
The problem is the bar code scanners at the check out. People haven't been running enough stuff under them creating orders at the factories for the replacement items. The reason they haven't been running stuff under the scanners is that their credit cards are maxed and the banks are killing them on the interest rate for the card. They are waiting to have cash in hand to buy. As soon as they do the orders will come in again and freight volume will pick back up. Now that we own Citibank and others could we not set card rates at reasonable numbers and get credit flowing again?

[Cloud9]

I am not so sure. The bank waits for no one. When the truck payments stop, the repo man shows up. The majority of those truckers who lose their trucks and go into the bread lines, won't be coming back into the industry. Their credit will be shot and their rigs will be in receivership. The stronger outfits will survive and there will be deals on rigs in reposession. Having said that, it is not going to be as easy as changing oil and tires and getting back on the road.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I') am not so sure. The bank waits for no one. When the truck payments stop, the repo man shows up. The majority of those truckers who lose their trucks and go into the bread lines, won't be coming back into the industry. Their credit will be shot and their rigs will be in receivership. The stronger outfits will survive and there will be deals on rigs in reposession. Having said that, it is not going to be as easy as changing oil and tires and getting back on the road.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'T')he trucking industry was deregulated in 1980. Have your cake and eat it.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')
Thats all true enough but if there is a load waiting to be shipped someone will find a way to deliver it. I don't think JIT shipping ends until oil production is obviously in decline and diesel prices start rapidly rising. Even then it will switch to trains and short hauls from the depot to the store that get the job done.

[threadbear]

From Vision Master's last post:


"In the final stages, a monopoly or oligopoly emerges, after which prices are raised, services dropped, quality reduced, and corruption and abuses of power become commonplace.

Workers from failed companies continue working in their fields by either joining the few surviving giants (usually at lower wages) or working alone (always at lower wages). In other words, a monopoly or oligopoly will dominate the market, but hundreds of nickel-and-dime operations may work around the edges."



This will happen in nearly every sector. Oligopoly domination with a few scrambling around the fringes. Once there is established oligopoly control, and competition has been eliminated, prices can be fixed upward for the customer base. The argument that as soon as prices start to go up, competition will move back in, is devoid of any merit. The barrier to entry in many fields is just too high now, particularly with commercial loans being difficult to secure.

The name of the game, for the past 30 years, has been corporate focus on market share, with prices held low, to support vast economies of scale. In the future a whole new pricing regime, will replace what we have now. Market share won't be a consideration. There will be desire for services, but that won't translate into demand, for the average person with limited means. Very ,very third world.

I have been arguing this point about the price of gasoline since I started posting here. Regardless of the price of oil, the price of gasoline and particularly diesel will be kept high, as refiners consolidate or go under.

[jupiters_release]

the48thronin,

Do you know what percent of the trucking business has been shut down or 'taken off-line' since last year?

Do you know what percent of the existing trucking business is involved in hauling food?

thanks!

[timmac]

the48thronin :
You can toot your horn all you want however the trucking industrial system is not about to collapse,, 1st of all they are enjoying the lower cost of fuel compared to a year ago, 2nd for every 1 trucker/driver removed from the road another trucker gets more miles/hours, 3rd Obama has stopped Mexican truckers from delivering into ours states, now that is going to bring back more drivers, and 4th they will always be some company somewhere to filled the void when there is money to be made..

Yes there will be less truckers and less supplies to be delivered but the system will stand and will be here till fuel runs out....

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 't')he48thronin,

Do you know what percent of the trucking business has been shut down or 'taken off-line' since last year?

Do you know what percent of the existing trucking business is involved in hauling food?

thanks!