[the48thronin]

Here is a post I just made elswhere... The point being that if independent trucks are being let go, The distribution system is falling apart.. maybe that $300 loaf of bread is not as far off as you think.

Sitting here at Ontario east, I got an interesting text message....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust saw a post on OOIDA's site. A Mercer driver said that they dumped 350
O/Os today.... he was 1 of 'em.

[copious.abundance]

Forgive me if I'm missing something here with all this trucker terminology, but . . .

With a contracting economy leading to weak retail sales and overall weak need to transport goods, wouldn't it be natural that lots of trucks would be sidelined?

I mean, I thought that would be obvious.

[Roy]

How about a $300 bag of dog food.

Was at the super walmart Monday night to buy a bag of dog food.

The entire section was nearly empty, with little signs posted saying:

"We are experiencing temporary supply shortages from our supplier. Please see an associate for product recommendations (at Walmart ). We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your business."

The types of dog food available were the expensive types and mostly in small bags. The large bags of cheap stuff and moderate priced stuff were gone.

I hope those signs don't start appearing in the produce section this summer (Calif drought--Imperial Valley) or in the bread section!!

Not so much for myself, as I garden extensively and have decent preparations, but for my neighbors who don't have those things and are apparently still blissfully unaware of the situation.

48's post is in line with an article or post I saw talking about idled train cars and locomotives in the US. Add that with the Baltic Dry Index, shrinking consumer spending, droughts, and the Obama admin shifting funds from Ag subsidies to
'childhood nutrition', and it doesn't bode well for our food supply -- this year in particular.

Of course, we've been discussing these issues for years here so I'm not surprised. It's not a matter of if; but when, IMHO.

[vision-master]

I just paid $20 for a medium sized bag yesterday. I'm gonna stock up on doggie food.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'F')orgive me if I'm missing something here with all this trucker terminology, but . . .

With a contracting economy leading to weak retail sales and overall weak need to transport goods, wouldn't it be natural that lots of trucks would be sidelined?

I mean, I thought that would be obvious.

[copious.abundance]

Well . . . whatever. Judging by your description it sounds merely (or, should I say, "merely") like things have gotten so bad that not even many of the "slaves" are needed. But if I understood your description, it doesn't sound to me like the "just in time" distribution system, in and of itself, is on the verge of a breakdown. Maybe things are just so slow that no one is in a hurry to deliver anything anywhere.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell . . . whatever. Judging by your description it sounds merely (or, should I say, "merely") like things have gotten so bad that not even many of the "slaves" are needed. But if I understood your description, it doesn't sound to me like the "just in time" distribution system, in and of itself, is on the verge of a breakdown. Maybe things are just so slow that no one is in a hurry to deliver anything anywhere.

[copious.abundance]

I'll be waiting.

[bodigami]

what is O/O?

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bodinagamin', 'w')hat is O/O?

[threadbear]

I've been arguing about price inflation potential of supply dropping below the level of demand, for ages, when companies start to fold en masse. This could definitely happen. Factor in a weakening currency, in the U.S. and you could get an Argentina Lite situation, where demand drops to historically low levels, but prices go UP anyway. Witness the action in oil today. Price is going up....and not because "happy days are here again". It's doubtful there will be a real panic with little left on shelves, but who knows, if it gets bad enough, there could be temporary rationing for essentials.

[the48thronin]

The term o/o

Historically "owner operator".

The modern O/O might be a person who owns, (or is buying) his own power unit or even a complete power unit trailer combination. My wife and I own two tractors and two specialized trailers. We drive them and have no employees.

Independent Owner Operators haul their own found freight. Leased owner operators lease to a larger company and typically haul freight the larger company provides to them. There are many in between percentages there, people who use the larger company for some business, and hunt their own loads typically for return loads. The differences (in operation type) affect who collects, who provides operating capital, etc, but the anchor of the system is that a small fleet owner or the driver himself capitalizes the business by buying the equipment used to provide the service.

Added to those two historical models, modern usage of the term includes people who lease or lease purchase a power unit, and then re-lease that power unit to a carrier. ( Many times the leasing company is a parent or subsidiary of the carrier.) These people end up working classified as independent contractors while bearing the risk for all operating expenses with no protections as employees even though they usually have no control over their working conditions, loads, or income. ( many of us call them share croppers for a reason.)

Why is a discussion of an impending global distribution system collapse discussing owner operators?

80 percent of all freight moved in the USA is not moved by large companies. Those large fleets are outnumbered by the small operator. The demise in the last 3 quarters of 5000 small trucking companies of 5 trucks or less is actually a sign of problems in the industry, but not cataclysmic yet.

The sudden release of 350 trucks from a fleet of all owner operators represents a capitulation of that fleet operator to the reality that the business cannot be found to keep them busy. That fleet operator is the largest retail distribution carrier in the USA. (Mercer is only one of many sub branches on the "Great Wide" fleet.)

Those owner operators are in fact the only avenue for that fleet to make money, ( they can haul nothing themselves as they own NO TRUCKS themselves). They are sending away a number of them after spending a coupe of years and many many millions of dollars assembling the mega fleet they control.

We are two weeks later now, and the spreading destruction of the American trucking fleet is proceeding about as I expected.

Fleets that once were soliciting new smaller fleets to come join them are now divesting themselves of smaller fleets due to continued drop in freight availability.

We have on this forum seen those inbound channels for freight collapsing, The stacked containers talked about in one thread in Asia become the idle locomotives in an other, and are now reaching the right proportions in trucking USA to cause the destruction of JUST IN TIME.

Manufacturers and retailers will no longer be able to pass the cost of warehousing on to the purveyors of goods and the hapless transportation workers who try to serve both ends of that daisy chain of promises.

Will there be shortages? There already are and each location is dealing with them as much as they can.

Will those shortages get worse over time ? Certainly, it is not possible to avoid that when freight volumes world wide are down by a quarter or more and shrinking daily as the economic system continues it's collapse.

Is this phenomenon still driven by peak oil? NO Peak oil was ""a cause of the demand destruction and economic collapse. The cycle was initiated the bubble burst, and now the collapse of the world global system based on cheap transportation "just in time" is as dead as any mammoth. The JIT distribution model that worked well in a small island chain was never going to be able to be adapted to global systems. It is after all simply a cost shift from manufacturer/retailer to the transporter.

The mental image of the gigantic statue with it's ankles blown out from under it still applies. Teeter left, teeter right, but teeter inevitably too far and begin the long protracted fall to the ultimate destructive crashing halt.


The PTB are still scratching their heads and screaming for someone to invent a way to "prop up Gargantua" and have yet to look down and recognize the meaning of the two missing ankles.

The awe inspired crowds of onlookers are slightly confused by the cloud of dust at the base, but from their view point on the far hills the statue seems only a little disturbed and has only settled a few feet for some reason.

Down at the base of the monster... in the oil patch, and on the avenues of transportation actualities (rather than office musings,) "the end" is easier to see if one has survived the shattering impact of the exploding ankles of the bloated statue.

If only the PTB had been content with a memorial to greatness without insisting on the ever growing waist line to reflect their PIGMAN reality, Those ankles might not have collapsed if the weight on them had not had to include fantastic pretensions of paper wealth and rampant resource use by uncaring seekers of power and wealth unrestrained by a complacent body politic serving it's true masters.

To late to save the behemoth now, time to make sure you are not in the footprint of the cursed thing when it becomes horizontal.

Maybe we can rebuild a monument to human achievement without the boated pigmen controlling everything including the design.

[vision-master]

One of my friends is a very small broker for Jeno. He's say's all kinds of OO contact him about work. He won't put them on bc they have old high mileage riggs. He said breakdowns are not an option hauling fresh fruit from Kali.

[Quinny]

I've always thought that the breakdown in JIT food distribution is one of the biggest problems we face WTSHTF.

Would an alternative interpretation of the above however not be that there is surplus capacity in the system that can be plugged in to deliver emergency goods if TSHTF.

I take your pont that there are shifts in where goods are stored, but doesn't mean there are less overall.

When I first started working in the IT industry I was disillusioned that although the work I was doing was making individual companies more efficient there was little change to the overall productivity of the system. eg more efficient sales ledger meant getting money quicker, purchase control holding on to it longer, and effective stock control passing costs onto suppliers. Couldn't it mean that the goods are there, but just being held in different places?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', '.') Couldn't it mean that the goods are there, but just being held in different places?

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')'ve always thought that the breakdown in JIT food distribution is one of the biggest problems we face WTSHTF.

Would an alternative interpretation of the above however not be that there is surplus capacity in the system that can be plugged in to deliver emergency goods if TSHTF.

I take your pont that there are shifts in where goods are stored, but doesn't mean there are less overall.

[timmac]

The trucking industrial system is not going to stop,, yes there is trucking companies going in BK and others shutting there doors and will be some delivery problems but others will open up with little debt and others will come out of there BK better and stronger..

It is not the cannery in the mine shaft,, just business problems that are coming about but it will work it self out as always,, Don't Fear What You Cant Control..

[thuja]

Man I can't believe you guys are bringing me into the arms of OilFinder II

If distribution of food suddenly stops...99% of Americans would starve within weeks. Rural, urban, exurban...it doesn't matter. Everyone depends on the grocery store.

Oh, except the few the proud the prepared who will survive on nitro dry pak rations until the sheeple all die out...

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'T')he trucking industrial system is not going to stop,, yes there is trucking companies going in BK and others shutting there doors and will be some delivery problems but others will open up with little debt and others will come out of there BK better and stronger..

It is not the cannery in the mine shaft,, just business problems that are coming about but it will work it self out as always,, Don't Fear What You Cant Control..

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'T')he trucking industrial system is not going to stop,, yes there is trucking companies going in BK and others shutting there doors and will be some delivery problems but others will open up with little debt and others will come out of there BK better and stronger..

It is not the cannery in the mine shaft,, just business problems that are coming about but it will work it self out as always,, Don't Fear What You Cant Control..