by ReverseEngineer » Tue 17 Mar 2009, 01:49:03
See my thread from Oct 2008
Collapse of an Economic Tower of BabelThe number of contracts written is unknown, but its a multiple several times over of the actual worth of the companies. Every contract that trips is essentially a losing bet for whoever wrote the policy and collected premiums over the years, in this case AIG is being hit first and hardest, but others wrote these contracts also. If even only say 1/4 of the largest companies go belly up in this collapse (and its sure to be more), then the value of the contracts to be paid out would be quadruple or more their value, so essentially there isn't enough total value to pay off the contracts. New money would have to be created, which means creating a debt somewhere to pay out money to the contract holder. The Fed is creating said debt, which is of course irredeemable debt. If continued, eventually you will end up with lots of money but no productive capacity. There is nothing really to spend the money ON.
Anyhow, this is the reason this bailout business will continue on here as long as these contracts are honored. The Fed will have to keep creating new debt money to pay off on the contracts as the companies fail. You would be better off to print the money in advance, funnel it to the companies to keep them from going belly up, and thus prevent the CDS contracts from tripping. Then you only are on the hook for the actual debt of said companies, in the short term anyhow. Problem being that because of the Peak Oil problem, these companies mostly can never be profitable anymore, so they will fail at a later date, how much later is an open question though.
Anybody who thinks the economic collapse isn't a direct consequence of the Peak Oil problem and decreasing amounts of available energy relative to the population who reads this site regularly clearly has mush for brains. The whole reason for the escalation of debt over the last 10 years in all these markets, along with the balloons created in investment is a direct consequence of decreasing EROEI since the 1970s, when Nixon and Milton Friedman took the dollar off the Gold standard. In practice many of the financial derivatives are complex and hard to understand, but in principle this is an easy and obvious problem to see. Relative profitability has been decreasing steadily while population has been increasing steadily, along with increasing drain of an aging population receiving pension and medicaire benefits, along with a cradle to grave social program in some of the social democracies. To continue on with it, debt has been constantly ballooning worldwide, though it gets shifted around some over the time period. China for instance Got Rich by Living Poor so to speak.
Anyhow, yes the contractual obligations are in the Quadrillions, which is why the term "Black Hole" is used, along with the WMD metaphor dropped on by Warren Buffett. Actually, the big hit to Berkshire Hathaway and the reason he got such a haircut here this year is because BH is heavily into Insurance, just like AIG. Warren was playing with fire even though he knew it was a phenomenal risk. He's eating a lot of it now, hard to say whether BH is really solvent either.
When will the Jig be Up here? Hard to say, they have plenty of ink there at the Fed, and Helicopter Ben knows how to use it. He's not stupid really, he's doing what is the only thing he can see to keep TPTB happy and in power. If he doesn't do this, the system crashes IMMEDIATELY. It will crash anyhow, but he is buying time.
Reverse Engineer