[billg]

Treasury Sells Three-Month Bills at the Lowest Rate Since 1929

[smallpoxgirl]

The US government ain't gonna default. They'll inflate their way out of trouble long before that happens. Saying that treasuries are "the place to be" right now, is basically saying there is no good investment to be had. The returns on treasuries are pathetic right now.

[copious.abundance]

So far, Treasuries are still the place to be.

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Treasuries Rise, Yields Approach Record Lows as Stocks Decline
By Wes Goodman

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, pushing yields toward record lows, as stocks slid and economists said government reports this week will show wholesale and consumer prices fell last month.

The U.S. recession is driving a “solid bid” in the Treasury market, Adam Carr, Sydney-based senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd., part of the world’s largest inter-bank broker, wrote to clients today. The cost of protecting bonds in Asia and the Pacific from default rose, helping fuel demand for the relative safety of government debt.

“We can’t be bearish” on Treasuries, said Kazuaki Oh’e, a debt salesman in Tokyo at CIBC World Markets Japan Inc., part of the investment division at Canada’s fifth-biggest bank. “We may have more bad news on the economy. We don’t have any fear of inflation and we may start thinking about deflation.”

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Still lookin' like the place to be.

--> Marketwatch <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Treasurys gain after mammoth two-year note auction
By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:18 p.m. EST Jan. 27, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices rose Tuesday, pushing yields down, after the government received the best demand in more than a year at its auction of $40 billion in two-year notes, by far the most ever.

The Treasury Department sold the securities maturing in January 2011 to yield 0.925%.

Investors bid $2.69 for every dollar of notes available, the highest so-called bid-to-cover ratio since November 2007.

Two-year note yields fell 1 basis point, or 0.01%, to 0.83%.

"The relatively strong demand for the two-year and ongoing worries about the U.S. and global recession" kept Treasurys bid, said Ian Lyngen, an interest-rate strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The government also sold $65 billion in short-term bills and inflation-indexed securities on Monday, and will sell $30 billion in five-year notes on Thursday.

Longer-dated debt has been positive most of the trading session as data on home sales and consumer's outlook came in worse than some had anticipated further reduced the likelihood that inflation would rise anytime soon. Inflation erodes the value of fixed-income assets over time.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

To be or to be,
That is the option for the Chinese.

>>> Bloomberg <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]China Needs Another $2 Trillion of Treasuries
Commentary by William Pesek

[...]

China, it’s often said, can spend its way out of this crisis. Throwing lots of money at the problem will soften the blow, yet it won’t be enough with the world slump intensifying. The key to China getting back to the all-important 8 percent growth level is a global recovery. Basically, that means the U.S.

$14 Trillion Gorilla

That’s why buying more U.S. debt makes sense. I’m not saying this because I’m American. This isn’t about economic nationalism. It’s just that the sheer size of the U.S. economy makes it a $14 trillion gorilla when officials in Beijing, Tokyo or Singapore grapple with safeguarding growth.

[...]

Admittedly, this whole argument is politically incorrect. Asia lending the U.S. even more money would be highly unpopular. The U.S., Asians often point out, was slow to help this region during its 1997 crisis. And why bail out a country that is so successfully exporting its own crisis?

The answer is that Asia is heading into a highly turbulent environment. Governments can spend all they want on stimulus efforts, and they may help at the margin. For better or worse, though, restoring global growth is more of a U.S.-centric exercise than many in Asia and Europe might like to admit.

That inconvenient fact makes it pointless for China to suddenly dump its Treasuries. It’s just not an option for the world’s third-largest economy.

U.S. officials used to fret about the Japanese doing that. Concerns increased after Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said in June 1997 that “several times in the past, we have been tempted to sell large lots of U.S. Treasuries.” It never happened. The reason: It can’t, and especially now.

China would cannibalize its outlook by curtailing its U.S. debt purchases. It may have more to gain from doing the opposite.

[copious.abundance]

To be or to be,
That is also the option for you and me.

>>> Marketwatch <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Treasurys gain after well-received bond auction
GE's credit downgrade also in the spotlight
By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:50 p.m. EDT March 12, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices gained Thursday, pushing yields down, as plenty of buyers showed up for the government's 30-year bond auction, its last debt sale of the week.

"It was a sigh of relief to investors, who had been concerned going into the auctions that the market would choke on it," said Michael Pond, Treasury strategist at Barclays Capital.

Bonds struggled to hold slim gains earlier after a pair of government reports showed that retail sales were stronger than anticipated but that jobless claims rose, muddying the outlook for the U.S. economy.

[...]

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') wouldn't suggest buying treasuries either.

The yields are lower than the real inflation rate

[patience]

The GEAB is sticking to it's story:

"According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to prevent this scenario from shaping up: the next four months, before summer 2009. Practically speaking, the April 2009 G20 Summit is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the sequence of UK and then US defaults begin (2). Failing which, they will lose their capacity to control events (3), including those in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase of geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”. At the end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007. "

Link--http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-32-is-available!-4th-quarter-2009-Beginning-of-Phase-5-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-phase-of-global-geopolitical_a2805.html

They have been close enough to date for me to listen to what they say. If they are correct (and I don't think the current DownJones sucker rally means much), then Treasuries will be worth about what my 1,000 shares of MCI stock is worth, a wall decoration as a monument to my bad judgement. Well, at least I only paid about 25 cents/share for it.

[sparky]

.

Oil finder , I'm cool with your debunking attitude , it's refreshing ( and smart )
but don't trust too much the "Deborah Levine, MarketWatch " report

T bonds main attraction is panic fear , not fundamentals , that's not a stable base

the line about China wanting another 2 Trillions of T bills is rubbish

what they may want is to have their duds investment in Freddie , Fannie and others
CONVERTED in government bond .. at par value !
in other words the US public would pick up the bill for any losses
China has "only " 680 billions in treasuries while their more exotic investment are at least three times that

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 008952.htm



.

[copious.abundance]

^
There is more than meets the eye about that statement from Wen:

>>> China has more to worry about than its Treasury holdings <<<

But yes their Agencies holdings, not their Treasuries, are their bigger concern. This thread, however, is about Treasuries.

[sparky]

.

Pretty good article , it sum up the Chinese dilemma nicely

The People republic of China is asked to provide the cash for president Obama stimulus
they will have to , to a large extend and they must be hoping mad

I don't know how much private Chinese money took a plunge , but there must be far fewer Chinese millionaires in U.S. $ and most of those losers are the buddies of the boys in power

.

[copious.abundance]

Looks like these things are still popular.

>>>Marketwatch <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Treasury sells $35 billion in 5-yr notes at 1.940%
By Deborah Levine
Last update: 1:09 p.m. EDT April 28, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold a record $35 billion in 5-year securities on Tuesday to yield 1.940%. Bidders offered $2.22 for every dollar issued, compared to $2.07 on average at the last four monthly auctions. Indirect bidders, a group of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 30.8%, compared to 34.6% on average at the last four auctions. Treasury prices stayed higher after the auction. The yield on the current 5-year note, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, rose 8 basis points to 1.91%.

[Serial_Worrier]

Real wealth is not in those shiny coins or electronic numbers in a database. Real wealth is your health, family, ability to farm the doomstead, fight off zombie hordes. How much ammo do you have? Can you survive in nature for an indeterminate period? Can you make clothes from animal skins? Do you know how to make a fire? Real wealth lies in survival skills.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')reasurys are 'still the place to be

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')reasurys are 'still the place to be

[copious.abundance]

For the Chinese, looks like Treasuries are still the place to be - 'cuz they have no choice!

>>> FT <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]China stuck in ‘dollar trap’
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: May 24 2009 23:30 | Last updated: May 24 2009 23:30

China’s official foreign exchange manager is still buying record amounts of US government bonds, in spite of Beijing’s increasingly vocal fear of a dollar collapse, according to officials and analysts.

Senior Chinese officials, including Wen Jiabao, the premier, have repeatedly signalled concern that US policies could lead to a collapse in the dollar and global inflation.

But Chinese and western officials in Beijing said China was caught in a “dollar trap” and has little choice but to keep pouring the bulk of its growing reserves into the US Treasury, which remains the only market big enough and liquid enough to support its huge purchases.

In March alone, China’s direct holdings of US Treasury securities rose $23.7bn to reach a new record of $768bn, according to preliminary US data, allowing China to retain its title as the biggest creditor of the US government.

“Because of the sheer size of its reserves Safe [China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange] will immediately disrupt any other market it tries to shift into in a big way and could also collapse the value of its existing reserves if it sold too many dollars,” said a western official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

[...]

China’s determination to keep buying US government debt is helping Washington fund its soaring budget deficit and there is no indication that Beijing will shy away from continued purchases, the Obama administration’s budget chief told a congressional sub-committee last week.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'N')ot for long.

US to Default by summer 2009.

[shortonoil]

Oily said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ummer is just 1 month away. Still awaiting that default!

[copious.abundance]

As I said, still awaiting that US default! No information here on any US default!

[eXpat]

shortonoil wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know that Trolls only have two fingers on a hand, so take off a shoe so that you can count to 6. All the non-Troll critters in the world can’t fund that amount of money!