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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 1 (merged) A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Postby Sys1 » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 07:41:50

"IEA to call for global 55mpg speed limit"

For planes too? :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Postby BabyPeanut » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 09:38:54

And amublances. And movies filming car chases. And NASCAR!!! :lol:
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Postby Grimnir » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 12:16:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5')5mpg speed limit


Does that mean everyone has to drive a hybrid? :P
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Postby Yavicleus » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 14:23:36

I wish they'd lower the speed limit to 55.

The people here drive like maniacs.
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Little Market reaction to IEA report

Postby FoxV » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 11:28:53

I thought this article "IEA warns against possible acute oil shortage" would be the death knell of our economy and begin the so called "super spike". I also thought this was being confirmed when oil prices opened the next day at a new all time high (heating oil, natural gas, and gasoline also opened on all time highs as well).

but the next thing I see is prices actually drop and end the day lower than the previous days close. What gives with that. This is the IEA stating we will be seeing ACUTE shortages within a few months.

I was under the impression that this was "Duck and Cover" type news. Am I wrong in its significance, and its actually a trivial thing. Or is it just a late (if not extremely reckless) April fools joke.

or is this a clear sign of the market manipulation mentioned in MarkL's new topic
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Re: Little Market reaction to IEA report

Postby Doly » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 11:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', ' ')This is the IEA stating we will be seeing ACUTE shortages within a few months.


Are they actually saying that? Can you give me the quote?
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Postby FoxV » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 11:49:02

here's the quote
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the information of Itar-Tass, the latest studies show that oil shortage will become more and more acute within the coming few months.

but now that I've cut and pasted it I see its actually the studies of Itar-Tass, and not IEA studies.

hmm, thats particularly poor form to make their references ambiguous like that. Stuff like that make us just look like a bunch mis-informed panick mongers.

So its safe to say that this article is pretty much nothing?
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Postby energyaddict » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 12:02:26

FoxV wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o its safe to say that this article is pretty much nothing?


No.

Itar-Tass is a well acknowledged news agency. They will not post trash to their customers - that would destroy their credibility. Such quotes are normaly seen within news agencies if they cannot acknowledge their source.

I suspect it is safe to say, that that information was leaking out of the IEA on nonofficial ways. There will be such a report soon by IEA, that is mentioned in the original post of Itar-Tass
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA experts have prepared a special report, due to be published within a few weeks, in which they warn the key oil consuming countries about the need for immediately taking tough energy-saving measures, if the daily oil supply to the world market is reduced by one to two million barrels.

- afterwords you will see the prices skyrocket. (And sometimes later the gas lines at the filling stations around the world.)
To realize that you are an addict is a essential step to a basic change.
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Postby Such » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 12:13:21

you think that speculators actually READ and UNDERSTAND industry reports?!?!?!?

sounds very green.
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Postby aahala » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 12:18:49

If you take 20 professional weather forecasters, and 18 say it's going
to rain next Friday, we can say 90% predict rain, but it doesn't change
whether it will rain or not.

Oil guesses can have short term effects on the price of oil, but it doesn't change the future.
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Postby tokyo_to_motueka » Wed 06 Apr 2005, 00:53:49

see http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic6573.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('squidsoup', 'I') mailed a New Zealand labour MP about this article and received this response:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he article relates to a conference being held on contingency planning, and the report from that conference. The IEA is not recommending that these measures be implemented now. New Zealand officials attended the conference.

The purpose of the conference is to help countries with their contingency planning for future emergencies, such as a major supply disruption or war in the Middle East. Under IEA rules, all countries are required to have plans in place for what they would do in the event of an oil supply disruption.

Pene Morris for
Pete Hodgson
MP Dunedin North

So are the IEA recommending this now, or not? If this isn't intended to be an immediate recommendation, it is significant that it is being considered all the same.
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How to achieve everlasting growth

Postby smiley » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 14:37:48

It is simple really. The answer:

IEA report april
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')arch world oil supply rose by 365 kb/d to 84.2 mb/d, from a lower February base.

IEA report march
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil supply rebounded by 885 kb/d in February to 84.3 mb/d.


So the world oil supply "grew" from 84.3 mb/d to 84.2 mb/d. In my simplistic mathematical view I would call that a reduction.

I've looked back at the previous reports and it seems that this is a recurring pattern. Every time they post a number, and adjust the number downward in the next issue. This has happened for every single issue in the past 12 months.

Since they are constantly working from an inflated number for this month and a lower base from the last month, they can continue saying that the world production is growing.

As a matter of fact the oil production can slowly decline to zero, while they report "growth" for every month along the decline.
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Postby RonMN » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 14:48:33

Interesting...can you post the 12 months of data? I haven't been watching closely!

Good catch!
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Postby RiverRat » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 14:49:43

Interesting ....

Do they post figures on a month to month basis or do they compare year to year (ie ... march 05 verses march 04)?
If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
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Postby Sys1 » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 15:20:06

"In my simplistic mathematical view I would call that a reduction. "
:lol:
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Postby RonMN » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 15:27:20

Slightly off topic...UPS announced they're raising delivery costs of both air & ground delivery.
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Postby nth » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 16:17:17

In Feb issue, they stated a drop of oil supply.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil supply fell by 645 kb/d in January to 83.6 mb/d mainly on
declines in OPEC supply. Non-OPEC supply from Canada, Norway
and the US Gulf of Mexico remained curtailed and Russian output fell
for a fourth month. Lower Russian expectations and prolonged OECD
disruptions cut the 2005 non-OPEC supply forecast by 175 kb/d.


For March.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil supply rebounded by 885 kb/d in February to 84.3 mb/d.
Non-OPEC added 445 kb/d, with recovering North American and
North Sea supply. Russian output rose after a four-month decline.
Non-OPEC supply is revised up by 75 kb/d in 2004 and 90 kb/d in
2005. It averages 51.0 mb/d this year, 925 kb/d above 2004.


For Last Year. December.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ower OPEC output led to a minor decline in world oil supply of
40 kb/d in November to 84.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC production rose
420 kb/d on gains from US Gulf of Mexico and offshore China. Russian
growth eased and OECD supply was also revised down. Non-OPEC
supply growth remains at 1.1 mb/d for 2004 and is revised down to
1.2 mb/d for 2005.


For November.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil supply increased by 890 kb/d in October to 84.6 mb/d, from a
lower September baseline. The end of North Sea maintenance, US Gulf of
Mexico recovery and ongoing FSU growth led to a 685 kb/d gain from non-
OPEC. Non-OPEC supply will rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2004 and 1.3 mb/d in
2005, with an extra 0.4 mb/d of OPEC ‘other liquids’ expected in both years.


For October.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil supply rose by 640 kb/d to 84.0 mb/d in September. Non-
OPEC output fell for a third month, by 100 kb/d. Hurricane Ivan shut-in
475 kb/d of US Gulf Coast output, with similar reductions expected to
persist in October. Recovering US and North Sea production should
help non-OPEC supply rise by 1.4 mb/d from September to December.

If you want more, go look up yourself.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/indexpublic.asp
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Postby frankthetank » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 17:51:55

hmmmm....so if one were to use a little bit of common sense, we've actually declined in production???

PO?
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Postby pea-jay » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 17:59:54

Boy, looking at that data you could argue that...or maybe not. Thats why they say you never recognize the peak until after it happens. Sure does us alot of good...
UNplanning the future...
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Postby smiley » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 18:09:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Feb issue, they stated a drop of oil supply.


Yes they stated a drop of 650.000 barrels. However if you look at the word production figures, the actual drop was 800.000 barrels. That might not seem so terribly important, but look at the following exercise.

- In the beginning of August 2004 the world production was 83.5 Mb/d*
- At the end of march 2005 the world production was 84.2 Mb/d**

So the production grew an anemic 0.7 Mb/d in those months.

Now lets look at the individual reported world production growth numbers
(as stated in the previous post).

march 365
February 885
January -645
December -45
November -40
October 890
September 640
august 300

Now if you add those numbers you get a solid growth of 2.3 Mb/d, more than three times as high as the actual 0.7 Mb/d. Then it becomes pretty clear how important these backward revisions are for the perception of growth. The growth numbers in each report are overstated by an average 200.000 barrels.

*World oil supply rose by 550 kb/d in July, to 83.5 mb/d. OPEC crude gained 450 kb/d, mostly from Iraq. Non-OECD revisions boost baseline world supply by 200-300 kb/d over the 1994-2002 period, mainly in OPEC NGL. The net effect of baseline revisions is that the Call on OPEC plus stock change in 2004 is adjusted up by 410 kb/d. Non OPEC supply growth remains at 1.2 mb/d for 2004 and 2005.
**March world oil supply rose by 365 kb/d to 84.2 mb/d, from a lower February base. Non-OPEC oil output rose by 60 kb/d to 50.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC plus OPEC other liquids growth remains at 1.4 mb/d for 2005. Early-year disruptions affecting OECD output now skew non OPEC growth into the second half of the year.
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