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THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 14:10:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'H')e's also been very wrong on the market direction since early Nov.


How so? I didn't notice that. What I've read of him has been fairly spot on.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 14:36:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'H')e's also been very wrong on the market direction since early Nov.


How so? I didn't notice that. What I've read of him has been fairly spot on.



Do you read his board regularly like I do? A fella named Live2trade got taken to the woodshed for exposing Denninger's calls of SPX 110+ since Nov, all the way up until the latest swoon. It, was all driven by EW technical analysis, which L2T taunted him over. That's one of the primary reasons Denninger's been so pissed at the selloff. Of course he hide his trades largely behind the $150 paywall, but L2T finally busted his buns over it.

Also, his blaming of the bezzle (and by extension, Obama) as the reason we've sold off is ridiculous. The bezzle is the fuel for the bull over the past 20 years in case he didn't notice. To imply that removing it will prevent a meltdown is preposterous. In fact it's the opposite. Removing the bezzle will accelerate the downturn even more. Sheesh. Actually it just gives him cover to disproportionately blame Obama in screed after screed for the mess we're in.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 15:44:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'A')lso, his blaming of the bezzle (and by extension, Obama) as the reason we've sold off is ridiculous. The bezzle is the fuel for the bull over the past 20 years in case he didn't notice. To imply that removing it will prevent a meltdown is preposterous. In fact it's the opposite. Removing the bezzle will accelerate the downturn even more. Sheesh. Actually it just gives him cover to disproportionately blame Obama in screed after screed for the mess we're in.


i thought the relevant definition of the "bezzle" is, in the case of financial fraud, until the fraud is discovered, the fraudster has the extra money they extracted from the "fraudee", and the fraudee has the property they purchased in the transaction. the difference between the honest price and the "fraud price" is, approximately, the "bezzle".

well, anyway, if you dig through Denninger's stuff you will find his formal definition.

in any case, i thought "getting rid of the bezzle" is a way of saying, getting rid of the fraud. like cutting out the cancer, e.g. incarcerating every financial industry pig-person who has knowingly scammed their customers.

what's wrong with that ?

after their recent experience finding out that American financial products ain't quite so great, i would expect other countries to begin thinking twice before loaning the US money. given that many of our concerns about financial collapse relate directly to the financing of US debt, it's logical to think that other countries will be increasingly reluctant to finance US debt until they see that the US is behaving honestly again.

which means getting rid of the bezzle, to use Denninger-speak.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 15:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'D')o you read his board regularly like I do?


I read some stories every day, but probably only about 10-15%. I don't have time for much more. I've seen many of his predictions but they were qualified with an "if". However, much of the more detailed finance discussion is over my head. I'm a science/tech person.

I won't say he's perfect, as that would be illogical, but I do consider him a valuable source of info and I filter him like I do every other source of info out there.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby sameu » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 15:55:55

read his 2008 predictions and how he evaluated those in his 2009 prediction ticker
is quite telling (read the whole 2008 post and not only the summary)
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 16:03:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'D')o you read his board regularly like I do?


I read some stories every day, but probably only about 10-15%. I don't have time for much more. I've seen many of his predictions but they were qualified with an "if". However, much of the more detailed finance discussion is over my head. I'm a science/tech person.

I won't say he's perfect, as that would be illogical, but I do consider him a valuable source of info and I filter him like I do every other source of info out there.


I filter him also. I do, however, think his value is greatly exaggerated. He's just too impulsive/emotional and all over the map for my taste. He's also, philosophically and existentially speaking, a lightweight.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 20:40:40

KD's own words:

March 5, 2009
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ivil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.



March 12, 2009

Comments by KD on his latest ticker:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uys, if this is real and not just noise it will be a REALLY BIG DEAL.

In fact, it could mark 666 as an actual bottom.

No, it doesn't end the recession by any means, but it will prevent the collapse of our markets.




So in 7 days , after he called for our dimise, he thinks we may be at a bottom. The "Banker Queen" is now respectfully called Mr. Frank and he should be supported.

In 7 days we go from certain Doom to the beginnings of recovery based on statements of a Citibankster and a corrupt Senator who's lover once ran a gay brothel out of his apartment!!


Wow..............
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 21:30:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'K')D's own words:

March 5, 2009
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ivil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.



March 12, 2009

Comments by KD on his latest ticker:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uys, if this is real and not just noise it will be a REALLY BIG DEAL.

In fact, it could mark 666 as an actual bottom.

No, it doesn't end the recession by any means, but it will prevent the collapse of our markets.




So in 7 days , after he called for our dimise, he thinks we may be at a bottom. The "Banker Queen" is now respectfully called Mr. Frank and he should be supported.

In 7 days we go from certain Doom to the beginnings of recovery based on statements of a Citibankster and a corrupt Senator who's lover once ran a gay brothel out of his apartment!!


Wow..............




Thanks for that. I missed it today. An excellent example of why I take much of what he says nowadays with a grain of salt.

BTW, I was the first poster at this forum to call attention to Denninger way back in the spring of 07 when AHM deep sixed. I know him well.
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Re: THE Karl Denninger Thread (merged)

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 22:19:44

Unless they solved the Alt-A, commercial real estate and Pay Option Arm megaton explosions that are going to continually pound the markets as they reset until the end of 2010, I don't see how this is a bottom yet. Maybe the bankers got all of them off their balance sheets and the Treasury is left holding them now?
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Karl Denniger/Get Ready America This Time You Get It In Both

Unread postby deMolay » Thu 02 Apr 2009, 13:02:04

Not very bright prospects for the US Taxpayer. http://market-ticker.org/archives/921-GM-Bankrupt,-UNLESS.....html
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 10 Apr 2009, 13:26:19, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Karl Denninger Thread.
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Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby JJ » Fri 22 May 2009, 18:58:26

read third essay [quote]:
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner committed to cutting the budget deficit as concern about deteriorating U.S. creditworthiness deepened, and ascribed a sell-off in Treasuries to prospects for an economic recovery.
“It’s very important that this Congress and this president put in place policies that will bring those deficits down to a sustainable level over the medium term,” Geithner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. He added that the target is reducing the gap to about 3 percent of gross domestic product, from a projected 12.9 percent this year.

Balderdash. The Bond Market sold off hard yesterday not because of concerns about the US AAA rating (which has been under fire for over a year), it sold off over what I wrote about in The Ticker yesterday:

If Foreign Central Banks are selling into Ben's bid then the game is literally weeks or even days away from being over.

I have written for over a year about the potential for a bond-market implosion and subsequent economic collapse.

Bernanke, if he continues to play his "QE" games into this, assuming it is real, must be immediately forced from office by President Obama and/or Congress.

In short, the people with real money who have been played for patsies have had enough, they're angry, and they're sidling toward the door because they have detected the obvious: The curtains are on fire.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 27 May 2009, 18:19:09, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Karl Denninger Thread.
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby Fishman » Fri 22 May 2009, 19:40:58

The part about California was well written also. End of the nanny state, boo hoo. Any bets here on the first 100,000 man riot in LA? A hot summer, water restrictions, reduced checks? Racial gang wars already.
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby patience » Fri 22 May 2009, 20:19:34

Denninger does his best to put out sound trading advice and warnings, IMHO. I find it is prudent to pay attention to him, so this situation makes me worry about receiving that silver I ordered that is due to ship in a couple weeks. I'd really like to have it in hand BEFORE the USD goes in the crapper. If the USD goes blooey, then I would expect commodities and PM's to go up dramatically in $. Guess I oughta convert some more FRN's to hard goods, huh?
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 22 May 2009, 21:47:56

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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Fri 22 May 2009, 21:54:46

i think the key part of this post is "again". Denninger is the worriest of worry warts.
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 May 2009, 22:22:02

Denninger may be a worry wart but he has the track record others dont. He has called much of this very correctly. He may not be 100% in timing , But as far as events and their causes he has been clairvoyant. I'd be paying strict attention, I believe he has it just about right on the money. I've saved a TON of my own by listening to him over the last year and a half.
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby Chuckmak » Sat 23 May 2009, 01:06:03

When is this dude *NOT* alarmed about something?

i mean i see what he's saying, but i'm just saying though...
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 23 May 2009, 01:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/


BTW, here's a direct link to the Denninger piece you reference.
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Re: Denninger is alarmed (again)

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 23 May 2009, 02:10:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chuckmak', 'W')hen is this dude *NOT* alarmed about something?

i mean i see what he's saying, but i'm just saying though...


Yeah, I watch those YouTube vids and always keep expecting his head to swell up and explode like that newscaster in that movie Scanners.

Karl has made some good calls, though.
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Denninger today

Unread postby JJ » Tue 15 Sep 2009, 11:04:43

The running joke in Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur is that the U.S. is the place where even your pet could get a credit card or a home mortgage.

So to Asians, the crisis we’re going through is our own fault. And although it was also caused by blunders in Western Europe and other regions, truth be told, they are mostly right. The message is clear: We need to immediately stop living beyond our means. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

went to Wells Fargo today to make a deposit. My one WF credit card has had the minimum payment and interest increased on it. (we have perfect credit, have never missed a payment on anything in our lives). While we were in the lobby of the bank, a customer came in and said all his WF credit cards have been declined. The customer next to me said that Lowes had just sent him a letter saying that him credit limit had been reset from 1000. to 168. dollars. he was a contractor, said what am I going to buy for 168.?

ps, am not worried about the wf credit card yet; it's unsecured. We have 1800. balance on it but would rather have the cash right now. (this is probably poor logic, but...)
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sat 19 Sep 2009, 14:28:59, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Karl Denninger Thread.
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