[AlanS2323]

I'm looking to begin trading stocks on my own. I know this is no easy feat, but I cannot stand having all my eggs in the economic success basket. My job depends on the economy doing well. My retirement depends on the economy doing well. So what happens if the economy does not do well? I want to be able to trade in such a way that I can profit from the economy doing badly. I think if nothing else it will provide a nice hedge to the bottom falling out of the world if/when peak oil happens.

[Micki]

Don't assume you can just start doing it and make money. There are millions of traders out there and they are all out to beat you.
Be prepared to put in the hours to learn and then you need to use discipline. And remember ALL traders lose money. The objective is just to lose less than you make. So don't expect any magical bullets or secret methods that guarantees profits.
Check out my historical posts for some suggestions to others starting off and good luck.

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlanS2323', 'I')'m looking to begin trading stocks on my own. I know this is no easy feat, but I cannot stand having all my eggs in the economic success basket. My job depends on the economy doing well. My retirement depends on the economy doing well. So what happens if the economy does not do well? I want to be able to trade in such a way that I can profit from the economy doing badly. I think if nothing else it will provide a nice hedge to the bottom falling out of the world if/when peak oil happens.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not that into technical trading with graphs and charts because I find it to be very time comsuming and complicated for someone who can't watch the market full time, so I wouldn't recomend that as a place to start, its basic idea is using mathematical
techniques to try and predict a market direction, only for some.

[AlexdeLarge]

This is a "traders" market for those who really know their stuff and can afford to lose what they bet.

Want to gamble? Go to Atlantic City because at least there you know the odds when playing blackjack. In this market.............its anybodys guess.

[alokin]

I think trading is immoral.

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '
')

There are many misconceptions about TA. Such as it is time consuming or you need to sit in front of the computer.
TA trading can be based on some simple rules like swing trading alone

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I') think trading is immoral.

[SeaGypsy]

I read somewhere last year that the most powerful computers in the world had been programmed with every conceivable algorithm and human potential then asked to calculate where the best median term investments were. They invariably said armaments and 'Field Equipment'; I can only assume that peak oil and peak everything would have been part of the equation.

Try googling 3 words: military+ investment+ intelligence

"http://mae.pennnet.com/home.cfm


Quote from the article above:

(pretty bloody sad really)

"Uncertainty regarding today's threats and tomorrow's emerging threats is driving the U.S. imperative to maintain its technology advantage," he said. "The U.S. defense and intelligence budget remains solid and homeland security and other opportunities are also growing."

The expanded importance of nation building and peacekeeping are driving the international demand improved defense and intelligence capabilities, Cavill added.

"While the U.S. economy has slowed, it will remain resilient," Cavill added. "Current and emerging threats will continue to drive budget stability."http://mae.pennnet.com/home.cfm

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')
I read somewhere last year that the most powerful computers in the world had been programmed with every conceivable algorithm and human potential then asked to calculate where the best median term investments were. They invariably said armaments and 'Field Equipment'; I can only assume that peak oil and peak everything would have been part of the equation.

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I') think trading is immoral.

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'T')his is a "traders" market for those who really know their stuff and can afford to lose what they bet.

Want to gamble? Go to Atlantic City because at least there you know the odds when playing blackjack. In this market.............its anybodys guess.

[smallpoxgirl]

I started trading last June. You definitely can get into it and can make money eventually. It's critically important though to recognize that starting out you are going to do dumb things. You're going to do a lot of them and you're going to lose a significant amount of money in the process. Learning to trade is 10 percent about learning what to do and 90 percent about learning what not to do. What makes you profitable is much less the good trades that you jump on than the marginal or bad ones that you let pass by.

As you've probably already noticed there are two basic schools of thought in stock picking: Technical analysis tries to predict future movements based on mathematical and graphical analysis of the market. There are two basic types of technical analysis indicators. Trend following indicators give you information about the recent trends in price movement. Oscillators give you information about when to expect reversals. The other basic school is fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis tries to predict the price movement based on understanding economic trends and various aspects of how a business is doing . The basic problem, IMHO, with fundamental analysis is that it is very difficult to obtain reliable data about how a company is functioning and virtually all such information is leaked to insiders well before the public gets access. Also a great deal of the information that is made available to the public is fabrication given for the purpose of manipulating the market. If you're Warren Buffet, maybe you can afford the sort of fundamental information that can make you profitable, but not if you're a retail trader. I'm almost purely a technical analysis person. I use a little bit of fundamental analysis to decide what sectors to look at, but deciding whether or not to take the trade is all based on technicals.

My advice:

1. Read. Read a lot. I'm happy to give you a book list if you'd like.
2. Spend six months paper trading. You will save yourself a lot of money. If you don't have the discipline to spend six months paper trading, you don't have the discipline to be a trader.
3. Don't start trading for real until you have at least $10,000 that you can afford to just lose and not be worried about it. As a newbie you are going to have some big draw downs. Most new traders have a big draw down and quit before they ever learn to do it right. You've got to be able to take a substantial loss, shrug, and keep going. Remember what I said. The important things to learn are what not to do. Each one of those that you learn comes with a tuition cost. If you can't afford the tuition and drop out of school, then you're just wasting your time and money.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'D')on't assume you can just start doing it and make money. There are millions of traders out there and they are all out to beat you.
Be prepared to put in the hours to learn and then you need to use discipline. And remember ALL traders lose money. The objective is just to lose less than you make. So don't expect any magical bullets or secret methods that guarantees profits.
Check out my historical posts for some suggestions to others starting off and good luck.

[threadbear]

too much information!

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'D')on't assume you can just start doing it and make money. There are millions of traders out there and they are all out to beat you.
Be prepared to put in the hours to learn and then you need to use discipline. And remember ALL traders lose money. The objective is just to lose less than you make. So don't expect any magical bullets or secret methods that guarantees profits.
Check out my historical posts for some suggestions to others starting off and good luck.

[SeaGypsy]

What happens when the discrepancy between gold delivered and gold on paper becomes obvious? I would have thought this will bring a run on gold; but at the same time collapse the institutions holding paper gold with no ability to deliver? Isn't this one of the possible triggers for total meltdown?

[Micki]

Yes a default is possible or even likely. Especially in Silver where JPM has further increased it's short position.
When will it happen? Who knows. Goldman Sachs had a 50,000+ short contracts in Gold on TOCOM and managed to veasel their way out of it by covering on dips and only made a loss of a hundred million$ of so. I thought that was a bit disappointing as would have like to see them grilled a bit.

There are a few odd things happening in gold market though. Not just the concentrated short positions that CFTC doesn't seem to do anything about, COMEX holdings not changing, GLD massively increasing holdings and price still dropping (CB selling only meeting fraction of valume) and that funny drop in lease rates round 6/3 that had all periods go from approx -1% to +1% etc etc.
Lot's of warnings about ETF's now only having paper gold etc when they should have physical.
Too much funny business going on even for me to keep up with.
That is why I keep pounding that when it comes to Gold, hold physical for the long term. Gold trading can be on top of that as a little extra spice for life.
$890 now should by the way be a support level. EIther it will hold and we can start the move towards $1200 or if it breaks TA suggests $840 could be next.

[truecougarblue]

My $0.02, don't believe anything you hear on CNBC, especially from Cramer. Look for the lie in any mainstream media economic report. Remember that the purpose of the market is to extract as much cash from as many suckers as possible. Don't even think about going long until nobody you know thinks that DCA is a good idea. Don't speculate your first nickle until you have one year's expenses in cash or cash equivalent in a safe place. All purchases of stocks, bonds, etc. are speculative.

FWIW, IMHO.

[threadbear]

Honing your intuition is best done when you have very little at stake. If you have a large amount, and you're a beginner, you're going to tense up and misinterpret feelings of dread or excitement as intuitive hunches. I honestly think intuition works best when there is little ego involvement and little money at risk. Detached interest, while maintaining other focuses, is a good thing.

I took 6.000. bucks over the course of 3 years, and invested, "just for fun". I've never looked at a spread sheet, and am not particularly interested in what money can buy. My major interests are group psychology, conspiracy, epistemology and covert operations. I made 30,000 as of today. It's not chump change, but my point is, if I'd invested 30,000., originally, I would have had too much skin in the game and that would have sunk me. I could have easily lost every cent. I'm really impressed with people who can do this for a living, as they must be able to retain intuitive hunches without being thrown off track by misintepreting their own internal warning systems.

The large market graphs, charting the Dow and Nikkei etc..., are numerical dreamscapes, upon which people's beliefs, expectations, desires and fears are inscribed. There is a constant tug of war between design and random effect, fundamentals and euphoria or dysphoria. It's really interesting, but if it's just about buying stuff...look out.