[jato]

Energy= the capacity for doing work.

Efficient= productive without waste.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')fficiency could make better use of the energy we have, but it will not offset the decline at all.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I')t will still not modify the depletion curve because…Post peak the oil companies will continue to pump oil as fast as they can and someone will buy/burn/use it.

[Doly]

The problem is, there are practical limits to how much more efficient one can get.

[Cash]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cash', 'T')he first one a quick Google turned up ("depletion rates" + petroleum) was from Richard Duncan:

http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/mexoil.htm

"Depletion rates for most countries outside the Middle East lie between 3% and 8%, with a few above 10%. The profile is primarily driven by the early large fields which are already in terminal decline and are not being replaced. (PE, 1995a)"

[johnmarkos]

Richard Duncan is the person who predicts "permanent blackouts" in 2008 or 2012 or 2030 or 2025, depending on how you interpret his writings.

I think "permanent blackouts are unlikely in the next few decades but then again, I don't have a PhD. I have a Bachelor's degreee . . . in Liberal Arts!

Anyway, Dr. Duncan's predictions are among the most pessimistic.

[Cash]

Hardly more pessimistic than many of the scenarios discussed and defended here, and his extrapolations, while perhaps extreme in your view, are based on sound information. It's interesting that Duncan has grown increasingly more pessimistic in recent years in his discussions of post-Peak Oil developments.

Certainly the depletion numbers he cites in my original post are beyond question, since they're based on historical fact rather than his or anyone else's predictions. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, with Colin Campbell and Jean LaHerrere (sp?), have done some of the leading work in oil depletion analysis.

FMI, go to:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/

http://www.mnforsustain.org/author_duncan_richard.htm

Cash

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree efficiency improvements do not change the depletion curve. The rate of deplection will not be affected. But that's not my point.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot', 'I') have no idea ... who Richard C. Duncan is

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he problem is, there are practical limits to how much more efficient one can get.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') understand the beginning and end of your post, but the proof in the middle wouldn't stand up in court.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') understand the beginning and end of your post, but the proof in the middle wouldn't stand up in court.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xplain how you will keep this saved energy sequestered away from consumers so they won't consume it. Remember, this is about achieving a net reduction in energy use. Increasing the efficiency will make more energy available, thus lowering the price. Price goes lower, people consume more. Now, if you instill efficiency and raise the price at the same time causing demand destruction, then you get around Jevon's Paradox.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xplain how you will keep this saved energy sequestered away from consumers so they won't consume it. Remember, this is about achieving a net reduction in energy use. Increasing the efficiency will make more energy available, thus lowering the price. Price goes lower, people consume more. Now, if you instill efficiency and raise the price at the same time causing demand destruction, then you get around Jevon's Paradox.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xplain how you will keep this saved energy sequestered away from consumers so they won't consume it. Remember, this is about achieving a net reduction in energy use. Increasing the efficiency will make more energy available, thus lowering the price. Price goes lower, people consume more. Now, if you instill efficiency and raise the price at the same time causing demand destruction, then you get around Jevon's Paradox.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xplain how you will keep this saved energy sequestered away from consumers so they won't consume it. Remember, this is about achieving a net reduction in energy use. Increasing the efficiency will make more energy available, thus lowering the price. Price goes lower, people consume more. Now, if you instill efficiency and raise the price at the same time causing demand destruction, then you get around Jevon's Paradox.

[Antimatter]

How is Jevon's Paradox relevent when oil prices will almost certainly increase rapidly post peak oil? Greater effeciency will not increase the use of oil, because the supply simply won't be there.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'H')ow is Jevon's Paradox relevent when oil prices will almost certainly increase rapidly post peak oil? Greater effeciency will not increase the use of oil, because the supply simply won't be there.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonetQuest', 'T')his saved energy must be kept away from the consuming public in order to have a net reduction in energy consumption.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'H')ow is Jevon's Paradox relevent when oil prices will almost certainly increase rapidly post peak oil? Greater effeciency will not increase the use of oil, because the supply simply won't be there.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonetQuest', 'T')his saved energy must be kept away from the consuming public in order to have a net reduction in energy consumption.