[Ludi]

"This prototype tractor more than hints at what the manufacturer believes is the future with units expected to reach production by 2015."

So that one isn't actually in production......

(just sayin' )

[TheAntiDoomer]

aww pstarr is OF2 ruining all your doom?

[Ludi]

This is more like what we're asking about:

"Supercharge your operation with one of four 7030 Series Tractors. At the heart of each model you'll find a 6.8L PowerTech Plus™ engine with four valves per cylinder and common rail fuel design for incredible torque, power and efficiency. Improved hydraulic flow (up to 45 gpm) and drawbar capacity (up to 10,000 pounds) let you handle heavier implements with ease."



http://www.deere.com/en_US/ProductCatal ... frame.html

Of course, I don't personally advocate large-scale plow agriculture, but the fact is, that is the kind of agriculture which feeds us today and there is nothing in line replace it. Not saying nothing might replace, just saying nothing is replacing it.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')uel Cell Tractors? Did you forget that the farmer does not have a natural gas hydrogen reformer in his shed, or a 50 kilowatt PV array on his barn, or a compressor capable of 10,000 psi, or that his John Deere has an inconvenient 2,000 lb Cummins Diesel in the way of the pretty little fuel cell? Detail Detail Details Scale Scale Scale.

[copious.abundance]

Ludi, your John Deere ranges from 140-180 hp. The prototype I showed has a 120-hp engine, which is in the same ballpark. Just need to scale it up a bit:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/12/26 ... ary/print/

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')The same tired argument again! It does not currently exist, therefore it never will in the future!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'L')udi, your John Deere ranges from 140-180 hp. The prototype I showed has a 120-hp engine, which is in the same ballpark. Just need to scale it up a bit:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/12/26 ... ary/print/

[dorlomin]

I don’t mean to be rude to Ludi and Pstarr but I don’t think electric tractors are here nor there in terms of short and medium term food production issues.
Demand outstripping growth has been our biggest problem over the past couple of years, this however may be somewhat reduced by the global economy cratering, that should kill some demand for corn ethanol (you’d think) and demand for Asian meat. This however is only conjecture by me.

The other major problem being faced is ongoing droughts in key grain regions. This is not enough to spark famines on its own as these regions tend to be closely integrated to the global economy so have easy access to replace any shortfalls if they were to occur. What it does do though is place pressure on price of grains at a time when international aid agencies and charities are experiencing huge financial strains. For example the UN has cut the rations in Zimbabwe to only 600 kcal a day per person.

The other pressure is likely to continue coming from natural gas. Its hobs choice, high prices and the world poorest farmers get priced out the market, low prices and the producers start mothballing drilling rigs. Mothballed drilling rigs lead to price spikes and shortages.

Where oil is liable to come into it in the shorter term is where diesel is being used to lift water, either from aquifers or as part of irrigation schemes in third world nations (I'm thinking especially India). A booming global economy meant skyrocketing oil prices and poor farmers being priced out of diesel, while a cratering global economy will mean less money for subsidies in many countries.

Many poor farmers do not produce enough for their large families needs so rely on either second jobs or aid. Both of those are going to be in short supply.

The real problems of this building crisis will not show up in the graphs and reports of various food agencies of stock piles and production figures. It will be a slow and steady squeeze on the calorific intake of the restless billions.

It will be a silent, ever tightening, merciless grip of food shortages.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '&')quot;This prototype tractor more than hints at what the manufacturer believes is the future with units expected to reach production by 2015."

So that one isn't actually in production......

(just sayin' )

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')t one point in history perpetual motion machines did not exist. That does not suggest they will in the near future.

Same thing goes with an on-farm electric transport infrastructure.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')
Yup, the existence of a mere prototype means it will never be mass produced!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'I') don’t mean to be rude to Ludi and Pstarr but I don’t think electric tractors are here nor there in terms of short and medium term food production issues.

[PeakOiler]

http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE51G46W20090217

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').N. says food production may fall 25 percent by 2050

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'O')ilFinder, I actually make things for a living. Do you? I know that many, many things are prototyped which never reach production.

[Ludi]

I'm not married to any particular doom. There's all sorts. If everything turns out swell and we gently reduce our population to carrying capacity or below, I'll be pleasantly surprised (and probably rather old).

I actually did stop to ponder your concept of doom denied....


You seem to be saying anything we need will be produced, and if it isn't produced, then we don't need it.

Is that accurate?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou seem to be saying anything we need will be produced, and if it isn't produced, then we don't need it.

Is that accurate?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Reasonably close. If there is a market for something, someone will come along and fill that market. If there is no market for something, then few (or no) producers will bother with it.