[truecougarblue]

+1 Got gold?

[Cloud9]

Tax, borrow, print, there is a fourth option, default!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', ' ')TS is going to HTF.

[Chuckmak]

In exactly 42.345 seconds, Ludi. Be ready.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Anyone care to take bets on when the US Treasury will have its first failed bond auction?

If China's economy continues to tank (and/or if China wises up and tells the US to pound sand expletive deleted by eastbay, it could be sooner than we think.

My guess is May, 2009.

[truecougarblue]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')ax, borrow, print, there is a fourth option, default!

[shortonoil]

DoomWarrior said: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyone care to take bets on when the US Treasury will have its first failed bond auction?

[truecougarblue]

How many times can interest rates go from 18% to 0% in one's lifetime?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyone care to take bets on when the US Treasury will have its first failed bond auction?

[seldom_seen]

Gotta hand it to Ilargi, a good writer with a talent for explaining the real sh1tuation. I liked this one:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') saw a Washington Post headline today that read: ”Obama Scores Early Victory of Historic Proportions". Now there may be all sorts of political agenda's among reporters and editors, and people may genuinely see things in different ways, but that headline is nothing but a huge pile of horse nonsense.

[Gerben]

Treasury bond auctions will never fail because there is a buyer of last resort: the Fed. When nobody else wants to buy they create money to buy it anonimously.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Well, isn't that what just happened? Wasn't it the 5 year paper last week? No one was buying so an "annonymous buyer" popped in at the last minute to the tune of something like 750 Mil?

There is only so many times they can do this though right? This paper is the last bubble, only speculators are buying cause they are hoping joe average is stupid enough to buyin following the pack and then when the leave and it tanks, guess who is left holding the bag. The Shyte has hit the fan, just no one is admitting it yet. They've pulled the plug, they're just waiting for the body to give up its last gasp.

[Gerben]

The Fed won't admit to prevent a negative impact on market sentiment. So we might never know.

If they did, then that still might not lead to a quick collapse. The US economy is surprisingly strong. I wouldn't be surprised if the US gets away without a major collapse and just a 'lost decade' instead.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

What do you mean loose a decade?

[Gerben]

A decade with no or very little economic growth.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

How does that fit in with the current credit contraction though? would it have to loosen with the stimulus and kind of balance out for a few more years?

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('truecougarblue', 'H')ow many times can interest rates go from 18% to 0% in one's lifetime?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')Contraction duration: 16.3 years

[shortonoil]

Reverse Engineer said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o where does your 16.3 year Contraction Duration come from?

[ReverseEngineer]

That might be when the model has 95% of the available energy gone from oil, but it by no means represents when the end of the contraction would be in terms of population, that will go on for quite a while longer, unless you postulate an immediate die off within 16.3 years?