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Learning about Peak Oil

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Unread postby smiley » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 17:21:09

I'll have to go with Philbiker here. I have to admit that I haven't read Crossing the Rubicon, but from the various excerpts and editorials that are floating around I decided that there are far better ways to spend my money.

What Ruppert writes is fiction. Ruppert is the Dan Brown of peakoil. Only Dan Brown is a better writer.
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Unread postby chargrove » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 17:31:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I have to admit that I haven't read Crossing the Rubicon

Then why on earth do you damage your credibility by calling it fiction? You haven't even read it; how can you state such a thing with such certainty?

How can anyone in this community stand by a position of criticizing things they've neither read nor understand, when that is exactly the problem that the PO community as a whole faces from the bulk of the delusional outside world? Aren't we supposed to know better?
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Unread postby NevadaGhosts » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 17:53:02

I just love how some people here are dismissing Ruppert and others as nut cases when THEY HAVEN'T EVEN READ MOST OF THOSE AUTHOR'S WRITINGS. HOW CAN YOU DISMISS SOMETHING YOU DIDN'T EVEN READ?
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Unread postby threadbear » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:02:38

Nevada, Most of those who criticize Ruppert haven't read ANYTHING he's written, let alone most of what he's written. This is the sad, and for them, embarrassing truth.
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Unread postby Nano » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:04:04

Sheesh, why do some of you feel so strongly about the question of Rupperts sanity? It seems to me this discussion has become a letting-off-of-steam within the greater question of the imminent disasster we are facing. Is that it? If so, carry on by all means! :razz:
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Unread postby threadbear » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:15:30

Nano, The question of Ruppert's sanity is central to peak oil. If he's insane, his analysis of peak oil, and how it relates to 911 has to be taken with a grain of salt. If he's sane, and "Crossing the Rubicon" is essentially true, I personally have to consider leaving Canada if the infection of criminal govt. spreads here and we become co-opted into the Matrix. (There, I used the term).

This isn't letting off a little steam, it's deadly serious and if you can't appreciate that , you won't understand the greater problem and it's implications.

It implies that if there is a technological fix, these dudes won't allow it to see the light of day and they can use the patent office and national security as a way of controlling implementation of new technologies at home, and whatever it takes overseas.
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Unread postby PO_TimeCr0ss » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:24:58

While I haven't read Rupperts work, I have read some of the links Phil posted. Interesting stuff.

However, if it is true that he is being critisized in here by people who have not read his work, isn't that similar to PO and the rest of the world?
" Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary"
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Unread postby smiley » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:32:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')evada, Most of those who criticize Ruppert haven't read ANYTHING he's written, let alone most of what he's written. This is the sad, and for them, embarrassing truth.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just love how some people here are dismissing Ruppert and others as nut cases when THEY HAVEN'T EVEN READ MOST OF THOSE AUTHOR'S WRITINGS. HOW CAN YOU DISMISS SOMETHING YOU DIDN'T EVEN READ?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen why on earth do you damage your credibility by calling it fiction? You haven't even read it; how can you state such a thing with such certainty


Jeez guys.... is it really so difficult to understand. What I said was that I didn't read crossing the Rubicon so I cannot comment on that particular book.

I did read a lot of the writings Ruppert did for from the fromthewilderness and there is no way that I can take this kind of stuff seriously. Take this story for instance.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... _rice.html

It is fiction, it is even bad fiction as his conspiracy theories have so many holes that you can lead a herd of elephants through.
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Unread postby threadbear » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:44:46

Smiley, Please explain WHY the article you linked to on Ruppert's site looks like fiction to you, rather than just labelling it as such. This type of "scholarly analysis" of Ruppert's work, is exactly what's being held up to well deserved scorn here.

And please--"Well jeez--because it looks kind of kooky." doesn't cut it.
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Unread postby Nano » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 18:48:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')t implies that if there is a technological fix, these dudes won't allow it to see the light of day and they can use the patent office and national security as a way of controlling implementation of new technologies at home, and whatever it takes overseas.


Ah ok. tx. Yes I guess that would be an important point. However, since I'm pretty certain there really *can be* no technofix, this question is not relevant to me. Only cheap fusion or cheap solar appeal as a possible technofix, and both seem unlikely to even exist in concept.

Concerning criminal (US) government behaviour, I have rather changed my position on that. Here's why: I tried real hard the last few month to animate my fellow countrymen and government, and talked to many people with some power who tried to do that also, but it *really* is a waste of energy!

You see, you have to deal with the so-called 'modern middle class'. The 'modern middle class' has 60% of the vote here in Holland, and they don't know their a$$ from there elbow when it comes to the energy question. They torpedo every government initiative to prepare for peak oil! This is what truly makes attempting serious mitigation futile. To get people to sacrifice, they must understand *why*! If they don't (can't!) understand why, they won't sacrifice! Simple as that.

I guess in the USA it's the same thing. That is why the US' broad move to consolidate the Middle East (and run a huge *paper* deficit) is the best thing they can do. I mean: if you're completely frank and unsentimental about the whole issue, what other option does the USA have?

I hope my government understands the real, hard problem, and continues to be good buddies with the USA, and Russia BTW! Unfortunately: "That's the way the cooky crumbles!"
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Unread postby threadbear » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 19:23:54

Nano, Didn't many of the Dutch have similar feelings about cozying up to Nazi Germany during the war? Your post indicates you have defaulted to an "us or them" philosophy. This is particularly scary in light of emerging fascism. Those in power use this kind of fundamentalism when they pose questions of a practical and philosophical nature to their constituents. It serves to narrow the possibilites of response, and it's repetetive use can frame issues in such a way that they help usher in totalitarianism.

Your belief about what is possible in terms of alternate tech is a bit beside the point. For purely practical matters, a clear assessment of whether or not the American govt. will be able and willing to suppress new technologies, should they arise in the future, has to be made--ANd the earlier the better.

Ruppert's book, Crossing the Rubicon, describes a criminal cabal that wouldn't be morally restrained from manipulating peak oil situation and impeding funding to useful technologies that show promise while funding distractions, like hydrogen technology. This is key for me personally. I'm trying to get a guage on just how bad these dudes are, and just how far they're willing to go.
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Unread postby smiley » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 19:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')miley, Please explain WHY the article you linked to on Ruppert's site looks like fiction to you, rather than just labelling it as such. This type of "scholarly analysis" of Ruppert's work, is exactly what's being held up to well deserved scorn here.


Fair enough. What Ruppert presents in this article is a load of fragmentary information on the pre 9/11 events. He argues that by combining this information any fool can see that there was a major attack in the making.

That is all true, but you have to understand that this information is collected with the advantage of hindsight. Looking back it is pretty easy to say which information is important and which not. After 911 we all felt pretty stupid that we didn't see this coming.

For instance it took a week to realize that the major spike in US Airlines shorts was connected to 911. Yet he expected the US government to make the link between this bizarre event on the stock market and the attack on New York the very next day.

Sure the US government could have known about the attacks, and perhaps they should have known, but that doesn't mean that they did. And Ruppert doesn't present any credible evidence that they did.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally, as reported by the German paper Die Welt on Dec. 6 [2001] and by Agency France Presse on Dec. 7, Western intelligence services, including the CIA, learned after arrests in the Philippines, that Al Qaeda operatives had planned to crash commercial airliners into the WTC. Details of the plan, as reported by a number of American press outlets, were found on a computer seized during the arrests. The plan was called "operation Bojinka."


That sounds like very important evidence, only the article he refers to was never published by Die Welt. At least not according to the archives of Die Welt which go back to 1995. Perhaps that's why it isn't featured in the endnotes (or could it be removed by the secret service :-) ).

And that is the case with a lot of the important parts of his theory. They are originating from unnamed newspapers, anonymous sources, articles in foreign languages which he has only seen and afterward mysteriously disappeared.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')OTE: The scan of the Izvestia story presented… is of the story that was originally presented by Izvestia. The story that they currently have on their website has omitted the first paragraph completely. We wonder why...]


That's why I compared him with Dan Brown. Most of the information is genuine, only some parts are speculation or based on non-existing information. And these parts are pivotal for his conspiracy theory.
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Unread postby erl » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 00:45:15

Anyone who hosts a website and, first thing, hawks his or her book and/or pats himself on the back is due for some suspicous looks. It raises at least the inference that they are profiting from Peak Oil fears.

It doesn't mean they are kooky or even wrong. It just means there will be, and should be, some raised eyebrows.

Caveat emptor.

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Unread postby SupplyConcerns » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 01:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PO_TimeCr0ss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'W')elcome aboard.

Matt's "Life After The Oil Crash" is a bit extreme. types.


Perhaps to your delicate sensibilities, but according to the most conservative member of the US House of Representatives, the scenario painted on my site is "realistic."

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/flo ... house.html

Matt


Matt, what I believe he meant was that the wording or path of explination was extreme. The events that could occur that you mention are very realistic. It was your site the instilled the fear of God in me and caused me to become rather "obsessive" into my research on PO. So for that, I thank you. :)



I personally am taken with this Peak Oil writing aesthetic of bluntly and colorfully telling it like it is. So well done, Matt, and Jim Kuntsler, etc.
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Unread postby PO_TimeCr0ss » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('erl', 'A')nyone who hosts a website and, first thing, hawks his or her book and/or pats himself on the back is due for some suspicous looks. It raises at least the inference that they are profiting from Peak Oil fears.

It doesn't mean they are kooky or even wrong. It just means there will be, and should be, some raised eyebrows.

Caveat emptor.

erl


Which is exactly one of the reasons why I dug deeper in my research.
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Unread postby Nano » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:51:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'N')ano, Didn't many of the Dutch have similar feelings about cozying up to Nazi Germany during the war? Your post indicates you have defaulted to an "us or them" philosophy. This is particularly scary in light of emerging fascism.


Interesting observation. Two differences between then and now is that the US is not invading The Netherlands and we are currently US allies, not enemies. That makes all the difference IMO. But I broadly agree with your assessment of my post, so long as you note that I expressely stated it was a view free from sentiment. And it's all purely hypothetical of course, before you call me a Nazi again! :)

Another point (when continuing this line of argument) is that *not* siding with the US in this matter means we (The Dutch) will have to side with some other major power that attampts to get a grip on the middle east. After all, when acting to secure hydrocarbon supply we're talking life-or-death any way you look at it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'R')uppert's book, Crossing the Rubicon, describes a criminal cabal that wouldn't be morally restrained from manipulating peak oil situation and impeding funding to useful technologies that show promise while funding distractions, like hydrogen technology. This is key for me personally. I'm trying to get a guage on just how bad these dudes are, and just how far they're willing to go.


Good luck. I don't see any possibility for you to succeed in that though, short from top-secret documents coming available suddenly supporting it in detail.

I think the hydrogen economy is not purely a distraction. *If* fusion comes online eventually, it will help that there *are* vehicles and filling stations up and running already to take the hydrogen. So the hydrogen economy to me seems a preparation and a gamble on the success of the drive for fusion.

I don't believe in a technofix because I don't believe in the existence of a *cheap* alternative to oil. *cheap* means *simple*, in my book, and I presume simple alternatives have all been thoroughly investigated and found wanting. That leaves the hightech and undiscovered alternatives, and they will likely never be cheap.

Perhaps nanotech will deliver what we need in the future. I was told there are a dozen scientific revolutions needed for that by Richard Smalley, and he seems a man that can be trusted.
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Unread postby Doly » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 04:56:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'I') don't believe in a technofix because I don't believe in the existence of a *cheap* alternative to oil. *cheap* means *simple*, in my book, and I presume simple alternatives have all been thoroughly investigated and found wanting. That leaves the hightech and undiscovered alternatives, and they will likely never be cheap.


"Cheap" doesn't always mean simple. For example, electronic communications are cheap (compare with sending messengers running!), but not simple.

Fusion energy wouldn't be simple, but it may turn out to be cheap. If the amount of energy produced is enormous, it would be cheap.
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Unread postby PhilBiker » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 09:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f I remember right, Phil, you haven't even read most of what Ruppert has to say
God darnit have you read a single word I've written? I haven't read Dianetics, does that mean I can't have an opinion on it? I haven't read Mein Kampf either.

I actually have read Ruppert from his FTW and elsewhere. I find his writing paranoid to the extreme, unbelievably self-important, pandering to people who want to believe his "alternate" views, and consistently presenting tenuous (at best) relationships as absolute facts. Dubious or completely unbelievable sources are mentioned as Gospel all the time. He mixes in enough facts to snare lots of people. His stuff is the most manipulative bulls**t I've ever seen, it's easy to understand why people get caught up in it.

And he is defended with the same kind of religious ferver as Scientology and the LaRouche cult.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso according to Amazon the average rating for Rubicon is over 4 stars. I wouldn't say that was low.
The average review on Dianetics is 4 and a half stars. Does that vaildate it? Read the text of the low reviews. It's eye-opening and interesting.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen why on earth do you damage your credibility by calling it fiction? You haven't even read it; how can you state such a thing with such certainty?
Again, I haven't read Dianetics either.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just love how some people here are dismissing Ruppert and others as nut cases when THEY HAVEN'T EVEN READ MOST OF THOSE AUTHOR'S WRITINGS. HOW CAN YOU DISMISS SOMETHING YOU DIDN'T EVEN READ?
Again, I haven't read Dianetics either.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')evada, Most of those who criticize Ruppert haven't read ANYTHING he's written, let alone most of what he's written. This is the sad, and for them, embarrassing truth.Again, I haven't read Dianetics either.

The problem, for the umpteenth time, is that when people are introduced to the reality of peak oil in the context of the ravings of a lunatic like Ruppert, they will dismiss the peak oil message along with all the garbage he's shovelling. This is not good for our cause, and I will continue to steer newbies away from him and those who associate with him. We all should if we want to be taken seriously. Though I know many of us just want to believe that the government's out to get us with some kind of secret agenda, and we are the only ones smart enough to see through it. Hogwash!
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Unread postby threadbear » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 13:01:55

Biker, If you've read Ruppert's site thoroughly and concluded he's a paranoid nutcase, fair enough. The stuff about his girlfriend, who was supposedly a mind controlled asset for the CIA does sound particularly looney, I'll grant you that. It's beneficial to have a background in intelligence, or a very thorough understanding of mind control projects to make a proper assessment of that particular situation.

Truth is stranger than fiction when it comes to this realm, though. So, Ruppert's story may seem outlandish, but have merit. You should read some books by people who you can trust, who have studied the intelligence community. The truth is often hidden in off the record areas that can't be easily verified or dismissed. It's a dilemna.

Personally, I think being paranoid gives a person an analytical advantage--it's just a matter of how paranoid and about what and getting the details straight.

Nano, Didn't mean to call you a Nazi, but there is a natural human tendency to be unwittingly and unnecessarily coralled into fundamentalist thinking. I realize now that in your post, you were just trying to be detached and pragmatic, and that's fair. But there are likely several ways of resolving the Middle East oil situation without resorting to "them or us".

Political parties all over Europe seem to be taking advantage of the backlash from their relaxed immigration policies, to usher in ultra conservatives who will align themselves more closely with the neo-conservatives in the US. Not a good sign. It dovetails neatly with nurturing a strong adversarial model of East versus West and helps over simplify everyone's thinking, including the Islamic population.

If the situation CAN only be solved by this kind of simple equation, so be it. One has to choose sides. But only after something the size and scope of the Manhattan project to find some kind of alternative source of energy is undertaken. I hope hydrogen is it, and that fusion, or some kind of harmless fission, if that's possible, will do it. The neo-cons are funding hydrogen only because it seems to them to be the least likely option, imho. The joke would be on them, if it turned out to be the answer. Ironic and serendipitous. Perfect.

Political parties all over Europe seem to be taking advantage of the backlash from their relaxed immigration policies, to usher in ultra conservatives who will align themselves more closely with the neo-conservatives in the US. Not a good sign

I agree with you that cheap energy from new tech isn't going to happen, nor should it. We should pay a premium for having the luxury of living on this beautiful planet. Cheap energy on a finite planet would be a complete disaster.
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Unread postby Nano » Wed 13 Apr 2005, 18:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') agree with you that cheap energy from new tech isn't going to happen, nor should it. We should pay a premium for having the luxury of living on this beautiful planet. Cheap energy on a finite planet would be a complete disaster.


You sound very european. Gas costs 1.4 euro per liter near my house. Thats a whopping 7$ per gallon, right? Of course: most of that is taxes, which is reinvested in our society, but still. It makes us count pennies and live on top of each other. No suburban sprawl over here!

I think you are a very nice person, maybe too nice. I deserved being implicitly called a Nazi by you, and though pragmatic, my thinking was rather vicious. Thanks for tweaking my ear.

Concerning resolving the coming energy squeeze I remain skeptical about peacefull ways of doing it, certrainly as the situation aggravates. Populations have a historically well documented habit of attacking their neighbours if life gets too uncomfortable. It's a perfectly natural phenomenon. Evolution selects for it, so I have no problem with it.

War, death and suffering has a place in human existence. It's part of the fullness of life that spawns deep philosophical inquiry and powerfull religious feeling, which would otherwise not exist IMHO.

So I suspect we will after all need to shake off our utopian love of peace and pacifism in favour of a harsher, more militant stance. We certainly shouldn't expect other, competing nations to refrain from doing that, in any case. And if we don't: a 'first strike' approach seems the wisest course of action. This explains the current US policy almost completely IMO.

However, I would be more in favour of another utopian vision: a low-energy, pacifist society protected by a very harsh, well-armed (high-energy) military. Perhaps something like the old caste system of ancient India. Maybe something like that will work again in the future?
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