by phaster » Sat 07 Feb 2009, 00:58:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TroyPDX', 'S')o I've come to the party a bit late...perhaps a year ago I started reading Peak Oil and other non-mainstream media sources of information. When you really look at the economic data from an objective viewpoint, you can't come to any other conclusion than we are heading for global collapse. Not only are we at peak oil, but our fiat currencies are failing (as they always do) and closely following the housing bubble will be the credit card bubble, the commercial real estate bubble, and of course the monster time bomb of the unwinding of financial derivatives.
I'm envious of those of you with the foresight to have been planning and prepping for years for the coming hard times. That being said, I can't go back in time and "unspend" all the money I wasted on frivolities and spend it on preps instead. Currently I am saving as much as I can and continuously stocking up on items recommended on other threads in this forum.
I believe that we are very near the edge of an economic free fall and possibly hyper inflation or scarcity in many essential items. Things are bad and getting worse, but I think there will come a moment collectively as a country when a sense of panic begins, when the masses really wake up to what is happening. At that time the shelves will empty with alarming speed. Personally I think when the first really big wave of the unemployed run out of benefits and the states can't extend them anymore because they're broke too, that's when things get ugly. People in this country aren't used to severe hardship, and when a critical mass of them start getting hungry, the anger will rise very quickly.
Anyway, my question is this... at some point it might be necessary to take any preps you need to make up a couple of notches, preferably just before things really hit the fan. You don't want to be behind the curve on this one. I'm talking about selling everything that isn't necessary that isn't tied down. I'm talking about getting some freeze dried food on a credit card if absolutely necessary etc. Basically I think there will come a tipping point and just before that would be the last chance to finalize the preps as best as possible.
I'm probably not the only one who doesn't have a self contained farm off the grid lol... so what are the indicators some of you are watching for to know it's time to pick up a few more things in a hurry? What would it be like just before the populace at large starts to really panic? Would it be the first obvious signs of civil unrest? Would it be a sharp and sudden decline in the dollar reflected in a massive jump in gold prices? (by the way, believe the only reason the dollar is holding up at all right now is that it's a race to the bottom with all the other fiat currencies) Would it be the sudden dumping of US treasuries by foreign nations leading to government insolvency? Would it be the first 'official' month of double digit inflation?
And what would be the last things you would do while the economy is still relatively 'normal'? What are your final preps? And is anyone else already feel a sense of eerie nostalgia as you walk through a fully stocked supermarket?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts, and not to sound horribly ominous, but good luck to us all.
Couple of thoughts. Just because people have some foresight about the damocles of peak oil and sensed some kind of economic crisis, does not mean they will make right moves, for example consider all the survivalist doomer types who ran for the hills and put all their savings into gold or gold stocks. Then got crushed when the markets fell off the cliff.
What I'm trying to say is, no one knows for sure what is going to happen or how exactly things are going to unfold. The only way we have 20/20 vision is in hindsight.
Having said that, I'd say spread your bets around so if the one sector ya invested in goes south ya don't loose everything; basically its the old adage "don't put your eggs all in one basket."
As to the question how will you recognize the social/economic tipping point? Well I personally recognized the economic/environmental system was unsustainable long ago, when I looked at the basic math of the system. As a result I changed my outlook to invest rather than consume. By this I mean money I spend on various items has a dual purpose, both to try and gain more financial return (as oppose to items that decrease in value over time), and have pragmatic use in case I'm totally wrong and the uber doomers are right.
Personally I think its going to be a slow train wreck (at least in the USA), where society as a whole will acclimate to a post bling consumer world. Over the years I've managed to visit more than my fair share of third world hovels, and I've noticed that even though those people were "financially poor" often times they were not as emotionally bankrupt as the average american who was very concerned with keeping up with the mythical jones in the idealized "ad" world.
The way I see it the typical deep in debt american public has just economically imploded, much like the USSR did as a result of trying to keep up with the superpower image. I happened to wander thru various parts of the old USSR after the wall fell, and I'm certain there is going to be lots of destitute individuals here who will long for the good old days (just like I witnessed over in that part of the world).
I'm not all that old, but 20 years ago while at university I realized there always has been and ebb and flow of civilizations, and although not everyone is going to make it thru this economic crisis, humanity in general will find some kind of equilibrium point. As for americans thinking this is the end of the world, I kinda have to laugh at that point of view considering some of the third world slums I've been to where 5/6 of the people on this planet can't even begin to understand what it would be like to have running water, roads for transportation, ubiquitous cell phone service, etc.
Sure things are hard in this country, but would you be willing to trade places with you counterpart in some third world country, where "There is nothing simple about living on less than a buck a day, which 1.2 billion people do, or on two bucks a day, as three billion people do. Income of $6 a day puts a person in the middle class in developing countries, but only 400 million people now qualify."
In general I'd say the typical american does not realized what an anomaly the USA went thru post WW II. Basically the USA became a military and economic superpower after WW II because we had the only factories that were not bombed to hell, we also had abundant energy in terms of oil and coal, a political system with a rule of law, and an literate workforce that sought out higher education in the sciences.
I'm not very religious but what is happening now in the economy and the credit markets should come as no surprise because to paraphrase GALATIANS 6: 7-9, society as a whole is reaping what was planted. It all comes down to the fact that for years society as a whole has lived far beyond its financial means using credit to throw one hell of party and now society must pay the bill for collective mismanagement.
PS my own sarcastic benchmark to recognize the social/economic tipping point is when oprah hosts a live aid type concert for former bush administrations officials who are victims of Ponzi schemes. When that happens I'll know the end is near....
The people in Iceland got the news when their ATM machines stopped working. Thats a pretty good line as would be the government stopping the issuance of entitlement checks.
I am doing very well with my preps but there is always more to be done and more to learn.