Now the Wall Street Journal is getting in on the action.
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Bad Call <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he conventional wisdom said that the U.S. would soon become a big importer of natural gas. The conventional wisdom blew it.
Mr. Greenspan and the industry experts who shared this view -- and there were many -- couldn't have been more wrong. But within a year of his testimony, there were plans for 40 new or expanded LNG terminals under consideration in North America, according to a tally by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. By March 2005, the list had grown to 55.
Today only six have been built, and most of those sit idle. Weeks pass between visits from a tanker full of frosty LNG. Even before the economic slowdown, it was clear the nation had ample natural-gas supplies. Large-scale imports simply weren't needed. And new reports suggest the U.S. won't need to turn into a massive importer of natural gas anytime soon.
How did the conventional wisdom get it so wrong?
[...]
Last year, a little more than 1% of gas consumed in the U.S. was delivered into the nation's pipeline grid by LNG tankers. Some analysts have begun asking whether LNG import levels will ever rise much above this level. "North America may be out of the loop, may be self-sufficient," says Jim Jensen, a natural-gas consultant in Weston, Mass.
Mr. Souki insists that the situation will improve and that gas prices will moderate at a level favoring imports because of their lower operating costs. "I have not changed my views," he says.
Others believe that more LNG will come to the U.S. this year as well -- but not to make up for domestic shortfalls, as routinely happens with oil.
Dumping Ground?Instead, North America is becoming a dumping ground for the world's excess natural gas. In 2009, new LNG supplies from Indonesia, Qatar, Russia and Yemen are expected to enter global markets, at a time when a depressed global economy has shrunk demand for fuel. The U.S. Gulf Coast, meanwhile, is perhaps the only region in the world capable of absorbing and storing this enormous excess gas supply.
LNG sellers will first fill up markets in Asia and Europe, which pay top prices. What's left over will likely head to underused terminals in North America. It's "the market of last resort," says Ira Joseph, an LNG analyst with PIRA Energy in New York.
[...]