[Anonymous]

In this thread you asked:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')nti Doomer; can you name 1 conventional oil field dicovered since 1972 which amounts to over 1 month of current world demand?

[copious.abundance]

Here's a few older ones I found.

-- Tengiz Field - 6-9 billion barrels recoverable reserves. Discovered in 1979. Kazakhstan.
-- Azadegan - 5.2 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. Discovered gradually from 1976 to 1999. Iran.
-- Priobskoye - According to an independent study here (PDF) on pg. 2 this field contains 27.6 billion barrels of "recoverable resources." The Wiki article says it was discovered in 1982. Russia.
-- Then of course there is Cantarell - 11.5 billion barrels produced to date. Discovered in 1976. Mexico.

[SeaGypsy]

Thanks for the effort!
You obviously know your stuff better than I do.

I will still note;

If I was as well educated as yourself on this subject; this would not have changed my ultimate view.

No new mega fields since the North Sea shelf.

Even Cantarell only produced world need equivant to a few months on your own figures.

Average new worthwhile finds are in the single digit billions; ie a couple of weeks worth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hanks for the effort!
You obviously know your stuff better than I do.

I will still note;

If I was as well educated as yourself on this subject; this would not have changed my ultimate view.

No new mega fields since the North Sea shelf.

Even Cantarell only produced world need equivant to a few months on your own figures.

[SeaGypsy]

Ok; I read the links.

Even the most optimistic reading of this is about 400 BB from a combination of Latin American new fields.

Way less than a decades worth; with massive investment may spur anaemic growth for a couple of years.

[SeaGypsy]

Can I side track a bit and ask;

If your postion that thousands of new small projects will make up the post peak shortfall for a number of decades; turns out correct:

What do we do about the sustainability question in the time being?

Ocean acidification?

Global warming?

Overpopulation?

If you are advocating a 'business as usual' approach; I am dissapointed.

Will confidence be restored by knowlege of these oil deposits?

Will they exacerbate our current problems in the long term or buy us precious breathing space to downscale?

Or will they just be something to fight over?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'O')k; I read the links.

Even the most optimistic reading of this is about 400 BB from a combination of Latin American new fields.

Way less than a decades worth; with massive investment may spur anaemic growth for a couple of years.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'C')an I side track a bit and ask;

If your postion that thousands of new small projects will make up the post peak shortfall for a number of decades; turns out correct:

What do we do about the sustainability question in the time being?

Ocean acidification?

Global warming?

Overpopulation?

If you are advocating a 'business as usual' approach; I am dissapointed.

Will confidence be restored by knowlege of these oil deposits?

Will they exacerbate our current problems in the long term or buy us precious breathing space to downscale?

Or will they just be something to fight over?

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')400 billion barrels would supply the world for almost 13 years at current consumption rates.

400 billion barrels is also far more than Saudi Arabia's proven reserves. Are you suggesting Saudi Arabia's oil is insignificant?

Also read the Iraq thread I linked.

There are other areas I believe will ultimately prove to be another large new frontier - namely the entire west coast of Africa, but that's just a hunch on my part at this point. Though I've got good reasons for this hunch.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hanks for the effort!
You obviously know your stuff better than I do.

[SeaGypsy]

I do care about survival.

My perspective says that the only way out of the current mess involves a complete rethink of the function of society; away from endless growth, towards sustainability.

Who can do this rethink; there is no 'Authority' which can overwrite the status quo; easpecially when this involves probable disenfanchisement of the most powerfull individuals in the world.

Part of the necessary reseach is a toatally honest look at oil.

Another is reducing population without need for war.

Unfortunately, I believe this will not happen. There are too many excuses for it not to happen. One of them is exagerated speculation on the future supply of oil.

The vested interests at the top of the pyramid will be happy to read the kind of propaganda OilFinder is making available; because this will help them to keep selling the story they so dearly love: the one where they are well and truly on top and in control.

The fact is that if we don't get a serious 'real economic' plan going very soon; confidence cannot be restored and the economy will continue to flounder. This is best case scenario.

Worst case is sudden institutional collapse around the world followed by the orchestrators sailing off on their mega yaghts to their little islands; leaving the anarchy they helped cause behind.

[Ludi]

SeaGypsy, why do you need an "Authority" to tell you to change your way of life?

[SeaGypsy]

I didn't realize I have the 'Power'!

How ignorant and foolish of me!

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')he vested interests at the top of the pyramid will be happy to read the kind of propaganda OilFinder is making available . . .

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') didn't realize I have the 'Power'!

How ignorant and foolish of me!

[SeaGypsy]

I am really intersested in what you have to say here.

I think the figures need to be worked out more solidly and incorporated into a transition plan; rather than society just 'running off a cliff'.

This will take time it looks like we may not have.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'i')ncorporated into a transition plan

[SeaGypsy]

I do realise people have done this work at the grass roots level& I applaud their work.

However I don't see a dot gov on any documents remotely resembling any of these sensible ideas.

The vested interests and inertia of established capital will ensure that no time soon such plans are incorporated by significant Governments.

At this level most of the forward thinking has been coming out of Europe; proposing the 2020 plans etc. From what I can see they are assuming alternative energy sources are THE key; to be factored onstream over the next 40+ years to supply continued economic growth.

These plans don't seem to have accounted for the current situation whatsoever. Economic doomsayers have been ostricised from power for so long they are seen as neanderthal by the establishment.

The real workable possible solutions are coming from the doomer end of the political spectrum; hence social discomfort in the extreme for the zealously positive nutters who currently control the worlds purse strings.

[idiom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever I don't see a dot gov on any documents remotely resembling any of these sensible ideas.