[mos6507]

Just found th is gem. Richard Heinberg was aware that a financial crash could really alter future predictions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What if the global economy tanks because of the US debt burden before the absolute oil peak, thus dramatically reducing demand for a few years?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou seem obsessed with the notion that peak did not cause this meltdown.

[vision-master]

bc moss said so?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy is it a fact?

[mos6507]

I am not lobbing insults at all peak oilers. I am not attacking the peak oil concept. I am only attacking the idea that peak oil caused the credit crisis. I've listed the causes that preceded the credit crisis. Housing was a ponzi scheme. There was nothing natural about it other than the fact that people fall into these sorts of manias rather often. The reason the credit crisis wasn't restricted to just the US was that the derivatives market is a global market. Also, the world economy is so tightly coupled in general that the fall of the US reverberates regardless.

So far I've not been given any concise and specific linkage between peak oil and the credit crisis. The only thing you can really point to is that exurban commuters were paying more to get to work. That was A factor. It wasn't THE factor, because of all the other key events leading up to this perfect storm. If you removed it as a factor, the housing bubble would still pop, and indeed now with energy cheap again, the bubble is still popping. People are still unable to pay their ARM reset mortgages despite a drop in their exurban commuting costs and falling into foreclosure. Not only that, we have TWO MORE WAVES of housing doom to go. (Alt-A and option-ARM).

[mos6507]

Info on the coming ALT-A and Option-ARM timebomb

[SeaGypsy]

While I agree with Moss on the structure of the collapse as being primarily institutional; I will say again that the core issue is market confidence.

Undermined massively by corrupt and unwise investment; the death blow to confidence is peak oil and subsequent turmoil.

[SeaGypsy]

Take away the financial crisis and we still have peak oil; which would cause a global financial crisis.

Take away peak oil and we may not have had a crisis for decades to come.

[TheDude]

Heinberg made a generalized statement that anyone could have formulated, with historic antecedents to back it up too. Not exactly a stunning call. I recently noticed a comment of JM Greer's from 3 years ago predicting that investors would push the price of crude both too high on the upslope and too low on the backside; sound familiar? These aren't very complex formulations.

I haven't seen any published analysis suggesting that tight supply markets were the prime mover in dragging the economy down, outside of Jeff Rubin's. Don't think any of us are, either, pstarr's leaning heavier than most but who are these other Must Be Peak Oil people you're referring to? Sounds like a strawman. High commodity prices were a factor, to what extent remains to be seen. The 80-82 recession wasn't entirely due to Iran going offline, either, as some mistakenly state.

A poll about the effect of $147/bbl's effect on economies would be useful. Give at least 4 options, too, for nuance.

I've always been puzzled by people who fear that peak oil won't be recognized as the big factor in civilization's descent. It's like listening to people vehemently defend or attack a pro sports team, in fact, maybe it's directly analogous in some fashion. I've never understood the attraction there, either.

[threadbear]

The collapse in the price of oil was probably a more significant factor than the rising price, in the financial downturn.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')einberg made a generalized statement that anyone could have formulated

[s0cks]

Mos is right.

High oil prices did not cause the economic crash. While prices were high we didn't have shortages, we didn't have panic, most people could still afford it even if they were grumbling.. What we did see were the beginning effects. Increased costs generally, bankrupt airlines, and crap SUV sales, but I don't believe it was at a dire point before the crash - had it been another year... then quite possibly.

The financial crash had also been predicted well in advance of really high oil prices by some economists (who would not have factored in oil prices). Its was inevitable. Just a question of when.

This crash has delayed the effects of peak oil. For how long? I don't know. It depends just how far we crash. But rest assured, when things do recover, it will hit a brick wall very very soon after.

[TonyPrep]

There is little doubt that high oil prices (brought about by constrained production, relative to consumption) could have been a factor in precipitating this recession. Mos even agreed with that:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he only thing you can really point to is that exurban commuters were paying more to get to work. That was A factor.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Moss is technically correct, but as always with PO issues everything is linked to the overall complete unsustainability of industrial civilization.

Peak Oil
Financial Ponzi System (which caused this)
Overpopulation

All different sides of the same doom-laden coin.