[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut just because some people here are really dumb and I'm bored and like to prove people wrong who make up things or have no idea what they're talking about, here's what the CBO's latest economic forecast (released on Jan. 8 ) actually has to say on the matter:

--> The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019 <--
Go to page 5:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]CBO’s Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2019

[...]

Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter (Percentage change)
Real GDP
Estimated 2008: -0.4
Forecast 2009: -1.5
Forecast 2010: 3.0
Projected Annual Average 2011-2014: 4.0
Projected Annual Average: 2.3

[Cid_Yama]

Listen folks, there will be <b>No</b> recovery. The US will be unable to turn over the 2 trillion in debt it needs to this year as the foreigners have stopped coming to the auctions and Russia is shoveling out the USDs from their reserves as fast as is humanly possible.

Toast. We are toast.

When the system collapses, a new system must come into being.
It will be something new. So recovery is not exactly the right word.

When a civilization collapses and eventually a new one rises from the ashes, would you call that recovery?

Manufacturing has nearly come to a standstill. Shipping <b>has</b> come to a standstill.

You should be more worried about how you will feed and clothe yourselves. How you will keep yourself warm.

This future is just around the corner, and coming down on us like a freight train. Some are already experiencing it.

Need some more solar panels and I guess I'll need a ham radio and tower as we will be back to that to find out what's going on in the world once the internet collapses. Hey, I could cover my tower in solar panels. Not a bad idea.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'L')isten folks, there will be <b>No</b> recovery. The US will be unable to turn over the 2 trillion in debt it needs to this year as the foreigners have stopped coming to the auctions and Russia is shoveling out the USDs from their reserves as fast as is humanly possible.

Toast. We are toast.

When the system collapses, a new system must come into being.
It will be something new. So recovery is not exactly the right word.

When a civilization collapses and eventually a new one rises from the ashes, would you call that recovery?

Manufacturing has nearly come to a standstill. Shipping <b>has</b> come to a standstill.

You should be more worried about how you will feed and clothe yourselves. How you will keep yourself warm.

This future is just around the corner, and coming down on us like a freight train. Some are already experiencing it.

Need some more solar panels and I guess I'll need a ham radio and tower as we will be back to that to find out what's going on in the world once the internet collapses. Hey, I could cover my tower in solar panels. Not a bad idea.

[Kristen]

Things are going to be different, yes, but I see nothing wrong living without this materialism crap.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'T')hings are going to be different, yes, but I see nothing wrong living without this materialism crap.

[Ludi]

I'm pretty darn materialistic myself. I like food, hot water, a comfortable bed, books, movies. Stuff like that.

[rangerone314]

I think confusing things was also a certain female economic pundit (I can't remember her name offhand), said economy was screwed until 2015...

My guess is peak oil maxes out at 100 million bbl 2019.. goes down to 50 million bbl by 2031.

If world economy starts humming by 2015, look between 2015 and 2019 for oil prices to spike dramatically.

A die off in the 3rd World might happen in the 2020s when food gets more expensive.

In the US, what will happen is the economy will go down the toilet in the 2020s, followed by inability to pay off the Federal debt which will probably be around 15 trillion dollars by then. At which point the US standard of living will basically have the floor fall out from under it.

I doubt by 2020 we will be completely shifted to electric vehicles and have the infrastructure to support it. As the economy contracts, everything not new will start to fall apart infrastructure-wise.

[retiredguy]

I think having 14 children under the age of eight with no visible means of support is pretty materialistic.

[shortonoil]

Cid_Yama said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')isten folks, there will be No recovery. The US will be unable to turn over the 2 trillion in debt it needs to this year as the foreigners have stopped coming to the auctions and Russia is shoveling out the USDs from their reserves as fast as is humanly possible.

Toast. We are toast.

[vtsnowedin]

quote="bratticus"][
I totally don't get how the GDP will get better while unemployment is getting worse.

.[/quote]

The thread has gone past this but I'd like to take a shot at this point.
Suppose you had thirty men digging ditches by hand and they were digging 500 feet a day for $10.00 per foot.
The bosses then move in a large excavator and put the best man in the operators seat and lay off the other twenty nine.
The excavator soon produceses 1000 feet a day of finished work which is still worth $10.00 per foot.
You now have increased GDP and increased unemployment.

OK back to the main thread.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Cid_Yama said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')isten folks, there will be No recovery. The US will be unable to turn over the 2 trillion in debt it needs to this year as the foreigners have stopped coming to the auctions and Russia is shoveling out the USDs from their reserves as fast as is humanly possible.

Toast. We are toast.

[patience]

I've read somewhere that the $54 trillion is the total of the $10.5 trillion National Debt, plus the future obligations of Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Maybe that's what is referred to here?

Quote:
"This year the amount of currency that must be fabricated to prevent a monetary collapse will be close to $6 trillion for the US. This fabricated currency is now producing a devaluation of asset values, rather than inflation (I will try to present a full analysis in the Available Energy thread in the near future).

It suffices to say here, that such wanton currency formation and asset devaluation will produce a very short term life span for our remaining monetary system. Expect a scenario of world wide defaults, monetary collapses and cascading bankruptcies over the next 36-48 months!" end quote.

shortonoil,
Any ideas you have about how to hedge against such a future would be much appreciated.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I')'ve read somewhere that the $54 trillion is the total of the $10.5 trillion National Debt, plus the future obligations of Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Maybe that's what is referred to here?

Quote:
"This year the amount of currency that must be fabricated to prevent a monetary collapse will be close to $6 trillion for the US. This fabricated currency is now producing a devaluation of asset values, rather than inflation (I will try to present a full analysis in the Available Energy thread in the near future).

It suffices to say here, that such wanton currency formation and asset devaluation will produce a very short term life span for our remaining monetary system. Expect a scenario of world wide defaults, monetary collapses and cascading bankruptcies over the next 36-48 months!" end quote.

shortonoil,
Any ideas you have about how to hedge against such a future would be much appreciated.

[TreebeardsUncle]

2015 is only 6 years away.

The time period for the GD and associated slump to play out from 29 - 5x was longer. The malaise of the 70's and early 80's was longer. The 50's and 60's were a boom time as was the period of 83 - 2001.

What is normal?

Anyway, folks on here show evidence of a number of mental illnesses and personality problems including paranoia, extreme pessimism, depression, hostility/rage, great social isolation, phobias, delusional ideas of reality resulting from excessive media consumption combined with the above-mentioned social isolation, and a lack of understanding of how credit works in the economy.

Here is a clue. This recession is no big deal. I did some extensive observation around Sacramento last night. The only big name retailers that were shut down or shutting down were Circuit City and Linens and Things. Business as usual is continuing. The alarmists on here are looking for an excuse to justify their Chicken Little "The Sky is Falling" Delusion. They are like Jehova's Witness and other apocolyptic cultists who think that there will be massive societal change, an end-of the-world-as-we-know-it belief, often combined with a sense of superiority, mean-spiritedness and a lack of ability to cope in current conditions. Gold, and silver are the preferred investments of paranoid wingnuts.

Lates.
Geoff

[Novus]

Why do people and the mainstream media keep blaming social security for this recession? Social security taxes take in more money than is given out in payments to seniors. The FACT is Social Security produces a surplus of revenue for the government. The real problem is the government spends that SS surplus on other crap (Iraq, Tax cuts, Bailouts, Stimulus, etc) instead of putting it in a lock box like Al Gore wanted us to do in 2000. Stop letting these corporate fascists brainwash you. THEY caused the resession and they want you to bail them out by forgoing your retirement.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', '2')015 is only 6 years away.

The time period for the GD and associated slump to play out from 29 - 5x was longer. The malaise of the 70's and early 80's was longer. The 50's and 60's were a boom time as was the period of 83 - 2001.

What is normal?

Anyway, folks on here show evidence of a number of mental illnesses and personality problems including paranoia, extreme pessimism, depression, hostility/rage, great social isolation, phobias, delusional ideas of reality resulting from excessive media consumption combined with the above-mentioned social isolation, and a lack of understanding of how credit works in the economy.

Here is a clue. This recession is no big deal. I did some extensive observation around Sacramento last night. The only big name retailers that were shut down or shutting down were Circuit City and Linens and Things. Business as usual is continuing. The alarmists on here are looking for an excuse to justify their Chicken Little "The Sky is Falling" Delusion. They are like Jehova's Witness and other apocolyptic cultists who think that there will be massive societal change, an end-of the-world-as-we-know-it belief, often combined with a sense of superiority, mean-spiritedness and a lack of ability to cope in current conditions. Gold, and silver are the preferred investments of paranoid wingnuts.

Lates.
Geoff

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.

Thanks for responding to my little diatribe. There is a reason for my apparent denial, beyond just being bizarre. I have found that people tend to give out additional, sometimes useful information, when refuting a clearly wrong statement, or one which they believe to be unsubstantiated.

Still, I have not seen much evidence that anything much is going to happen in the real economy. Think this is still mostly a Wall Street event. Only a small fraction of loans are in default, mostly those made in the middle and late 00's. Don't think the percentage of defaults is over 10%. Even unemployment around 11% didn't make that much of an impact back in 1982.

g



There is little value in arm-chair psychoanalysis and denying the severity of this world-wide financial implosion is just downright bizarre, especially for someone like yourself who has been here 3 years and seen many projections and predictions comes true.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', '
')
Still, I have not seen much evidence that anything much is going to happen in the real economy.

[rangerone314]

People who say this is NOTHING like the Great Depression are SORT of accurate. BUT...

What part of the Great Depression are you talking about...? It lasted for quite a while. When it started in 1929 things were not super horrific yet.

Things really didn't hit rock bottom until 4 years later in 1933 when I think unemployment was 25%.

This could very well be the tip of a new Depression. It doesn't have to be a "Great" Depression. There were plenty of Depressions in US history before 1929.

The solutions being applied to this situation (increasing public debt) ironically MIGHT actually work to fix the current crisis but ADD to the depth of the next problem, which will be the national debt and the value of the dollar.

That comes to a head when enough countries shift away from dollars as reserve currency & people start dumping Treasury bills. US unable to issue enough new debt will either print currency (driving up massive inflation) or default on debt. Either way the economy will be FUBARed.

On the assumption this happens BEFORE effects of oil production descrease are felt, the US economy will already be knee-capped when peak oil hits.