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The Singularity University

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 17:51:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ep, well, that's unfortunate. I guess they actually don't care to learn much about it.

I'm completely wasting my time here, apparently.

Learn? You're going to teach us how to feed 7 billion people with permaculture?

Oh wait, we have to reduce that? Mandatory sterilizations? Ok, so feed 5.5 billion people without agriculture. And also, we've got to tell the third world without power now that they ain't never gonna have power. And also you're going to explain how poweringdown & efficiency will solve global warming even though (AFAIK) the scientific theories of the day say global warming is already set in a feedback loop & will continue for hundreds of years even with zero emissions.

Oh and then you're going to teach us how education is masturbation but posting vague platitudes about conservation & not having babies on the Internet is a fine use of time.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 20:24:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Learn? You're going to teach us how to feed 7 billion people with permaculture?


Bash Ludi all you want, but what exactly is your plan? You have identified yourself as someone who is searching for a solution. That's fine. What if, as in the global warming example, there is no solution? Expect the worst but hope for the best, I say. It sounds to me like you are in the bargaining stages of grief and you are just trying to take out your frustrations on her. The state of the world is NOT HER FAULT. The parameters of the world, overshoot, ecosystems, ideal sustainable behavior, they are what they are. The math is the math. If you can't sustain 7 billion on permaculture, then people are gonna have to die by one means or another and no faith in silicon nanowire batteries or $1 solar panels is going to change that.

I would love to have a narrative of the future with a plausible happy ending that I could use when I share the bad news of peak oil to friends and family, but I don't have one. The best I can muster is rooting for thorium breeder reactors. But the barriers that humanity has to overcome are multi-layered. Solve energy and we still have to deal with a crumbling biosphere. Solve both and we still have to find a way to limit population for true sustainability. The cynic in me sees no way for us to pass through each successive hurdle without taking massive casualties in the process.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 20:49:54

Space, the final frontier. These are the voyages of the Starship Enterprise. Its five year mission, to seek out strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no man has gone before!

Singularity, shmingularity, what a joke. These people are living in a dream world, a consensus trance. What utterly baffles me is how such brainiacs can be so blind. The whole show depends on the accumulated remains of Carboniferous Period lifeforms dating from 354 to 290 million years ago. Why? Because it burns.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 23:52:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'S')pace, the final frontier. These are the voyages of the Starship Enterprise. Its five year mission, to seek out strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no man has gone before!

Singularity, shmingularity, what a joke. These people are living in a dream world, a consensus trance. What utterly baffles me is how such brainiacs can be so blind. The whole show depends on the accumulated remains of Carboniferous Period lifeforms dating from 354 to 290 million years ago. Why? Because it burns.

No it doesn't. That's the whole point.

You guys seem appalled at anyone who suggests humans may be able to survive as more than apocalyptic scavengers once oil runs out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Learn? You're going to teach us how to feed 7 billion people with permaculture?


Bash Ludi all you want, but what exactly is your plan? You have identified yourself as someone who is searching for a solution. That's fine. What if, as in the global warming example, there is no solution? Expect the worst but hope for the best, I say. It sounds to me like you are in the bargaining stages of grief and you are just trying to take out your frustrations on her. The state of the world is NOT HER FAULT. The parameters of the world, overshoot, ecosystems, ideal sustainable behavior, they are what they are. The math is the math. If you can't sustain 7 billion on permaculture, then people are gonna have to die by one means or another and no faith in silicon nanowire batteries or $1 solar panels is going to change that.

If people cannot all live in permaculture fantasy-lands does not imply they all have to die, at least not right away. I do think there are a bit too many though.

As for global warming, chances are technofixes are our only solution. We can't just stop polluting entirely & even if we could that wouldn't be enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') would love to have a narrative of the future with a plausible happy ending that I could use when I share the bad news of peak oil to friends and family, but I don't have one. The best I can muster is rooting for thorium breeder reactors. But the barriers that humanity has to overcome are multi-layered. Solve energy and we still have to deal with a crumbling biosphere. Solve both and we still have to find a way to limit population for true sustainability. The cynic in me sees no way for us to pass through each successive hurdle without taking massive casualties in the process.

Fair enough, at least you're not trying to pass off "have fewer children" & "be more energy efficient" as some sort of panacea.

Note : I'm not bashing permaculture (or Ludi). Permaculture is awesome. It's just not going to save the world. Nor is changing a lightbulb or getting your tubes tied.

That's just damage control, we need to be proactive.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 00:26:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou guys seem appalled at anyone who suggests humans may be able to survive as more than apocalyptic scavengers once oil runs out.



Many of them want it to end because they need it to end. Many of them are so scared shitless by doommongering (life after the oil crash for one) they can't see the situation for what it is.



If push comes to shove, we can still use synthetic oil for important oil based needs like agriculture if we have no alternatives ready in time. PO the end? Doesn't look like it........
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 10:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')As for global warming, chances are technofixes are our only solution. We can't just stop polluting entirely & even if we could that wouldn't be enough.


I wouldn't call it a solution. A solution is a cure. All we can possibly muster is a treatment with unknown side-effects.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 11:07:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Many of them want it to end because they need it to end.


I swear we would not having these sorts of discussions with oil still trading near $150 bbl. We've now reset the clock back to the pregame show. When we fall off the plateau, everybody will reevaluate their predictions. Don't just go from shock to trance.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')If push comes to shove, we can still use synthetic oil for important oil based needs like agriculture if we have no alternatives ready in time. PO the end? Doesn't look like it........


You can't brush doom aside so easily. Again, the problems humanity faces are multi-layered. Peak oil is only part of a larger whole which is limits to growth. Also, history has shown little evidence that when humanity is presented with a way out that they will indeed pick the right path. So certain things being possible don't make them likely to happen, due to human nature.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 11:08:02

A "technofix" is just more of the same - perpetuating the problem. Our first action should be to STOP the damaging behavior. Then repair in the least damaging way.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Carlhole » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 11:49:00

Human Beings developed big brains because they bestow a tremendous problem-solving advantage. This is what technology is. Railing against technology amounts to a rejection of essential humanity - which is absurd because only a human could ever make such a judgment and he/she would do so only in attempting to solve a problem!

The whole multi-million-year evolutionary story of hominids has been about the adoption of ever more sophisticated technologies and the accretion of greater degrees of biological IQ. This ancient trend shows an exponential pattern of increase - so slow as to be unnoticeable at first but irresistibly approaching the near-vertical. We are probably sitting right on the elbow of the great curve right now.

Big brains aren't going to go away. They are only going to get "bigger" - very rapidly over the next few decades in all likelihood. This is because achieving greater intelligence is the most valuable thing in the universe. It is the great project of human beings. Without intelligence, there would be no such thing as "value" to begin with. With intelligence, the idea and utilility of "value" expands commensurately.

Getting people to voluntarily limit intelligence (when it can potentially be grasped) is as misguided as trying to get people to act altruistically all the time. And right now, greater intelligence CAN be grasped.

When the likes of NASA and Google are interested in the idea of the Singularity, it's becoming more an accepted, realistic mainstream expectation. The advent of machine consciousness -- with machines designing the next-generation of machines, which, in-turn design the next generation, etc., etc. -- means that a whole new level of Life On Earth will be coming into existence. This "birthing" process probably won't happen in an instant -- it will probably occur over a span of 5 - 10 decades. Still, most of us alive now will probably have a normal conversation with a computer one day not too long from now.

Whenever Singularitarians have been presented with the idea of a human die-off, they shrug. Such a thing would have absolutely no effect upon the general exponential trend towards The Singularity. they say. It will just mean the end of the multi-billion human-dominated, mass consumer society. "So what?"

[align=center][flash width=425 height=350]http://www.youtube.com/v/ZlgHxa9Lsio[/flash][/align]

Singularity University Presentation
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 13:23:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A') "technofix" is just more of the same - perpetuating the problem.

No. If a problem is pollution & the "technofix" drasticly reduces or eliminates pollution then it doesn't perpetuate the problem (except in the mind of the luddite).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'O')ur first action should be to STOP the damaging behavior. Then repair in the least damaging way.

We don't have time for that. That's like saying the first thing to do in a car crash is stop the car and access the situation. Kind of impossible when you're swerving on ice.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 13:32:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')henever Singularitarians have been presented with the idea of a human die-off, they shrug. Such a thing would have absolutely no effect upon the general exponential trend towards The Singularity. they say. It will just mean the end of the multi-billion human-dominated, mass consumer society. "So what?"

Hmm, I guess they are assuming the machines will have become "conscious" and self-replicating by the time humans die off?

I do think AI is pretty much the only hope we have as the scope of the problem is obviously over our heads.

Humanity is uniquely capable of creating "organisms" (non-living ones in the case of a computer) more capable of solving certain problems than they are themselves.

To shun this (well pseudo-shun this anyway, an Internet luddite is an oxymoron of course) or to claim (like the unibomber) that new technological progress (except green-friendly technology like permaculutre) is just insane, not to mention impossible. Like fundy Christians who want to ban cloning & stem cell research.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Fri 06 Feb 2009, 21:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') swear we would not having these sorts of discussions with oil still trading near $150 bbl. We've now reset the clock back to the pregame show. When we fall off the plateau, everybody will reevaluate their predictions. Don't just go from shock to trance.



I went from shock to reality. When I first found out about this stuff I felt like you, but the more I considered it the less sense it made. Not a single doomer prediction has been correct, but some of these guys like matt simmons have made their whole careers out of this. I do wonder how many peak oilers are like Kunstler y2k refugees?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can't brush doom aside so easily.


Depends on the kind of doom. PO doom can be because it assumes we are not able to find alternatives, create our own oil, conserve, or a combination of the above. Some other doom, like the sun is going to someday swallow the Earth, is justifiable since it is inevitable, but even so there isn't that much that fits into that category.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut I thought MIT (Masturbating Into Tomorrow) was the place for that.



So what's wrong with MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)?
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 00:27:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'S')o what's wrong with MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)?

Don't expect a legitimate answer.

Ludditism is a religion & like all other religions it doesn't have to make sense. She probably isn't even following this thread anymore, when questioned or overwhelmed she just assumes "why bother" & indeed if all of humanity had that attitude we would indeed be doomed.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby rsch20 » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 20:14:01

I will say that I remember having this conversation with ludi a few years back and it went exactly the same, blathering about permaculture without even realizing that that itself is a new 'technology'. It was very frustrating and it's nice to see that the consensus opinion is shifting finally.

It makes no sense to me how people can accept Peak Oil and deny Accelerating Tech. both theories are based on the same methodology (observing trends over time), and both are backed by pretty substantial evidence.

Even if we DON'T hit the Singularity, it's still a fascinating situation, in the near future we will either have an explosion of technology that will transform the world in ways we can't even imagine, or we will level off, and if tech does level off then put me solidly in the doomer camp, our problems are far beyond our capability to handle or cure with our current level of intelligence.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby rsch20 » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 20:30:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can't brush doom aside so easily.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Depends on the kind of doom. PO doom can be because it assumes we are not able to find alternatives, create our own oil, conserve, or a combination of the above. Some other doom, like the sun is going to someday swallow the Earth, is justifiable since it is inevitable, but even so there isn't that much that fits into that category.


Actually the doom list is fairly extensive. and most of them are 'could happen whenever' not 'in a billion years' like the sun.

Super Volcano
Asteroid
Nuclear War
Grey Goo
Climate Change/Pollution
Super-Virus
Hostile AI

and of course, a singularity thread is never complete without a link to the Friendly AI Critical Failure Table.

http://www.sl4.org/wiki/FriendlyAICriticalFailureTable
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:00:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'I') will say that I remember having this conversation with ludi a few years back and it went exactly the same, blathering about permaculture without even realizing that that itself is a new 'technology'.



But it isn't a "new technology." It's a technology, but not new. It's made up of existing techniques, with some innovations.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'S')o what's wrong with MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)?

Don't expect a legitimate answer.

Ludditism is a religion & like all other religions it doesn't have to make sense. She probably isn't even following this thread anymore, when questioned or overwhelmed she just assumes "why bother" & indeed if all of humanity had that attitude we would indeed be doomed.



There's nothing wrong with MIT except they keep trying to make a fridge that tells people when to buy milk. :)

Narz, I'm not a Luddite. That you think I am shows how little you've actually noticed of what I've posted. I have posted repeatedly that I am not a Luddite. I think technology is part of being human. Also part of being human is being responsible for our choices and making appropriate ones (I like to hope).

I step out of arguments when I get too emotionally involved in them. I think that's more useful and helpful than typing obscenities in allcaps.

Please if you have personal criticism of me, take it to the Hall Of Flames where it belongs.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby rsch20 » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:13:44

That's not the point, the idea of permaculture is for everyone to do it, which hasn't been done before. implementing it would be new, a change in our culture, and although the individual pieces have been around a long time, the 'wrapping' of permaculture and the idea that this is something with global consequences IS new.

permaculture is a puzzle piece, not the entire solution. I endorse it, I think toilets are a massive waste of resources and a glaring symptom of the deeper issues with our current intelligence level. we could be composting our waste instead of flushing it away with DRINKING QUALITY WATER.

permaculture is great, but without a higher 'base' intelligence level as a species it's a non-starter, impossible to implement because we are just too dumb, disorganized, shortsighted, and poorly managed for our entire species to do something that smart. Without a benevolent AI or something similar I think permaculture is firmly in the 'yea that'd be a good idea' category.


(p.s. I just noticed that you stated it's not new tech, and then followed that directly with the phrase 'some new innovations')

/facepalm
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:14:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', '
')permaculture is a puzzle piece, not the entire solution. .



100% agree.

I don't recall EVER saying permaculture was the only solution.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:20:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's nothing wrong with MIT except they keep trying to make a fridge that tells people when to buy milk. :)




In other words because they keep researching science and inventing new things?
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